IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/renene/v201y2022ip1p950-960.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting methods for wind power scenarios of multiple wind farms based on spatio-temporal dependency structure

Author

Listed:
  • Li, Yanting
  • Peng, Xinghao
  • Zhang, Yu

Abstract

In this paper, we first proposed a new wind power generation scheme for multiple wind farms that considers both spatial and temporal dependence of wind power time series based on copula theory in a computationally efficient way. Different vine copulas were studied and compared. Then a novel two-stage spatio-temporal sampling method is used to generate wind power scenario samples. Finally, we propose a conditional quantile sampling method that converts the samples into specific wind power generation scenarios. A case study was conducted on Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) of National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to benchmark the performance of the new method with existing methods. The results show that the proposed method can generate scenarios with more accuracy and efficiency, which is conducive to subsequent operations.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Yanting & Peng, Xinghao & Zhang, Yu, 2022. "Forecasting methods for wind power scenarios of multiple wind farms based on spatio-temporal dependency structure," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(P1), pages 950-960.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:201:y:2022:i:p1:p:950-960
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2022.11.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148122016354
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.renene.2022.11.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Deng, Jingchuan & Li, Hongru & Hu, Jinxing & Liu, Zhenyu, 2021. "A new wind speed scenario generation method based on spatiotemporal dependency structure," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 1951-1962.
    2. James E. Matheson & Robert L. Winkler, 1976. "Scoring Rules for Continuous Probability Distributions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 22(10), pages 1087-1096, June.
    3. Aitken, Mhairi, 2010. "Wind power and community benefits: Challenges and opportunities," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 6066-6075, October.
    4. Díaz, Guzmán & Gómez-Aleixandre, Javier & Coto, José, 2016. "Wind power scenario generation through state-space specifications for uncertainty analysis of wind power plants," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 21-30.
    5. Aas, Kjersti & Czado, Claudia & Frigessi, Arnoldo & Bakken, Henrik, 2009. "Pair-copula constructions of multiple dependence," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 182-198, April.
    6. Arrieta-Prieto, Mario & Schell, Kristen R., 2022. "Spatio-temporal probabilistic forecasting of wind power for multiple farms: A copula-based hybrid model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 300-320.
    7. Zhang, Yi & Cheng, Chuntian & Cai, Huaxiang & Jin, Xiaoyu & Jia, Zebin & Wu, Xinyu & Su, Huaying & Yang, Tiantian, 2022. "Long-term stochastic model predictive control and efficiency assessment for hydro-wind-solar renewable energy supply system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 316(C).
    8. Draxl, Caroline & Clifton, Andrew & Hodge, Bri-Mathias & McCaa, Jim, 2015. "The Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 355-366.
    9. Dißmann, J. & Brechmann, E.C. & Czado, C. & Kurowicka, D., 2013. "Selecting and estimating regular vine copulae and application to financial returns," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 52-69.
    10. Tilmann Gneiting & Larissa Stanberry & Eric Grimit & Leonhard Held & Nicholas Johnson, 2008. "Rejoinder on: Assessing probabilistic forecasts of multivariate quantities, with an application to ensemble predictions of surface winds," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 17(2), pages 256-264, August.
    11. Dong, Weichao & Sun, Hexu & Tan, Jianxin & Li, Zheng & Zhang, Jingxuan & Yang, Huifang, 2022. "Regional wind power probabilistic forecasting based on an improved kernel density estimation, regular vine copulas, and ensemble learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).
    12. Tilmann Gneiting & Larissa Stanberry & Eric Grimit & Leonhard Held & Nicholas Johnson, 2008. "Assessing probabilistic forecasts of multivariate quantities, with an application to ensemble predictions of surface winds," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 17(2), pages 211-235, August.
    13. Hui Hwang Goh & Gumeng Peng & Dongdong Zhang & Wei Dai & Tonni Agustiono Kurniawan & Kai Chen Goh & Chin Leei Cham, 2022. "A New Wind Speed Scenario Generation Method Based on Principal Component and R-Vine Copula Theories," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-21, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fabian Krüger & Sebastian Lerch & Thordis Thorarinsdottir & Tilmann Gneiting, 2021. "Predictive Inference Based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo Output," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 89(2), pages 274-301, August.
    2. Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir & Tilmann Gneiting, 2010. "Probabilistic forecasts of wind speed: ensemble model output statistics by using heteroscedastic censored regression," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 173(2), pages 371-388, April.
    3. Gensler, André & Sick, Bernhard & Vogt, Stephan, 2018. "A review of uncertainty representations and metaverification of uncertainty assessment techniques for renewable energies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 352-379.
    4. Mikkel L. Sørensen & Peter Nystrup & Mathias B. Bjerregård & Jan K. Møller & Peder Bacher & Henrik Madsen, 2023. "Recent developments in multivariate wind and solar power forecasting," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(2), March.
    5. Jenny Brynjarsdottir & Jonathan Hobbs & Amy Braverman & Lukas Mandrake, 2018. "Optimal Estimation Versus MCMC for $$\mathrm{{CO}}_{2}$$ CO 2 Retrievals," Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, Springer;The International Biometric Society;American Statistical Association, vol. 23(2), pages 297-316, June.
    6. Hu, Jinxing & Li, Hongru, 2022. "A transfer learning-based scenario generation method for stochastic optimal scheduling of microgrid with newly-built wind farm," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 1139-1151.
    7. Alexander, Carol & Han, Yang & Meng, Xiaochun, 2023. "Static and dynamic models for multivariate distribution forecasts: Proper scoring rule tests of factor-quantile versus multivariate GARCH models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1078-1096.
    8. Gloria Gonzalez‐Rivera & Yun Luo & Esther Ruiz, 2020. "Prediction regions for interval‐valued time series," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(4), pages 373-390, June.
    9. Nagler, Thomas & Czado, Claudia, 2016. "Evading the curse of dimensionality in nonparametric density estimation with simplified vine copulas," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 69-89.
    10. Benoumechiara Nazih & Bousquet Nicolas & Michel Bertrand & Saint-Pierre Philippe, 2020. "Detecting and modeling critical dependence structures between random inputs of computer models," Dependence Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 263-297, January.
    11. Talbi, Marwa & Bedoui, Rihab & de Peretti, Christian & Belkacem, Lotfi, 2021. "Is the role of precious metals as precious as they are? A vine copula and BiVaR approaches," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    12. Nguyen, Hoang & Virbickaitė, Audronė, 2023. "Modeling stock-oil co-dependence with Dynamic Stochastic MIDAS Copula models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    13. Song, Yupeng & Basu, Biswajit & Zhang, Zili & Sørensen, John Dalsgaard & Li, Jie & Chen, Jianbing, 2021. "Dynamic reliability analysis of a floating offshore wind turbine under wind-wave joint excitations via probability density evolution method," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 991-1014.
    14. Nagler Thomas & Czado Claudia & Schellhase Christian, 2017. "Nonparametric estimation of simplified vine copula models: comparison of methods," Dependence Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 99-120, January.
    15. Rezitis, Anthony N. & Rokopanos, Andreas, 2019. "Impact of trade liberalisation on dairy market price co-movements between the EU, Oceania, and the United States," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 63(3), July.
    16. Brechmann, Eike & Czado, Claudia & Paterlini, Sandra, 2014. "Flexible dependence modeling of operational risk losses and its impact on total capital requirements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 271-285.
    17. Florian Ziel & Kevin Berk, 2019. "Multivariate Forecasting Evaluation: On Sensitive and Strictly Proper Scoring Rules," Papers 1910.07325, arXiv.org.
    18. Reboredo, Juan C. & Ugolini, Andrea, 2018. "The impact of energy prices on clean energy stock prices. A multivariate quantile dependence approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 136-152.
    19. Himchan Jeong & Dipak Dey, 2020. "Application of a Vine Copula for Multi-Line Insurance Reserving," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-23, October.
    20. Weiß, Gregor N.F. & Scheffer, Marcus, 2015. "Mixture pair-copula-constructions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 175-191.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:201:y:2022:i:p1:p:950-960. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/renewable-energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.