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Exact project reliability for a multi-state project network subject to time and budget constraints

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  • Huang, Ding-Hsiang
  • Huang, Cheng-Fu
  • Lin, Yi-Kuei

Abstract

In a project, the duration of every activity is uncertain because of weather, availability of machines, human resources, and unexpected situations, and the cost is influenced by the duration. For modeling the uncertain durations, a multi-state project network (MPN) is proposed. To understand the performance of an MPN, project reliability is calculated and defined as the probability that a project can be completed within time and budget constraints. All feasible project state vectors are contained in upper and lower boundary points. The previous literature only calculated an estimated project reliability. To obtain the exact project reliability, a decomposition approach is developed to obtain subsets of feasible project state vectors. Each subset is firstly formed in terms of one upper boundary point and all lower boundary points. Each subset is further simplified to reduce the number of lower boundary points for computational efficiency. An algorithm with the decomposition approach is subsequently proposed to evaluate the exact project reliability. A real project of new manufacturing lines is demonstrated with several combinations of time and budget constraints to show the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm, and project managers can make decisions based on project reliability.

Suggested Citation

  • Huang, Ding-Hsiang & Huang, Cheng-Fu & Lin, Yi-Kuei, 2020. "Exact project reliability for a multi-state project network subject to time and budget constraints," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:195:y:2020:i:c:s0951832019305794
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2019.106744
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    8. Dmitriy Demin & Horst Schwickerath & Katharina Schwickerath, 2020. "Network Planning Of The Publishing Process For The Issue Of The Magazine," Post-Print hal-03021325, HAL.
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    10. Demin Dmitriy & Schwickerath Horst & Schwickerath Katharina, 2020. "Network planning of the publishing process for the issue of the magazine," Technology audit and production reserves, Socionet;Technology audit and production reserves, vol. 5(4(55)), pages 23-28.

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