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Universal generating function -based narrow reliability bounds to evaluate reliability of project completion time

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  • Babaei, Mohsen
  • Rashidi-baqhi, Amin

Abstract

Project completion time is one of the important indicators for managing/scheduling construction projects. This paper proposes a method for evaluating the reliability of project completion time by using the Universal Generating Function technique. The proposed method is used to overcome the limitations of existing project reliability evaluation methods by providing accurate results while requiring low computational burden. Also, unlike many of the methods revealed in the literature, in the proposed method, the activity duration does not need to follow any specific distribution. Our methodology consists of five main parts: 1) determining the u-function of the activity durations 2) modeling the stochastic project network as a parallel-series multi-state system, 3) determining the u-function of the project network paths to determine the probability of failure in each path, 4) determining the probability of simultaneous failure of each pair of paths, and 5) computing reliability bounds for project completion time by integrating the NRB and UGF methods. Results of the proposed method were compared with those of the Monte Carlo simulation method indicating that the reliability level obtained from both methods are indifferent at 0.01 significance level, while the computation time of the proposed method is significantly lower.

Suggested Citation

  • Babaei, Mohsen & Rashidi-baqhi, Amin, 2022. "Universal generating function -based narrow reliability bounds to evaluate reliability of project completion time," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PA).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:218:y:2022:i:pa:s0951832021006177
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2021.108121
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Du, Mengyu & Li, Yan-Fu, 2020. "An investigation of new local search strategies in memetic algorithm for redundancy allocation in multi-state series-parallel systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    2. Huang, Ding-Hsiang & Huang, Cheng-Fu & Lin, Yi-Kuei, 2020. "Exact project reliability for a multi-state project network subject to time and budget constraints," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    3. Peng, Rui & Xiao, Hui & Guo, Jianjun & Lin, Chen, 2020. "Optimal defense of a distributed data storage system against hackers’ attacks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    4. Nashwan Dawood, 1998. "Estimating project and activity duration: a risk management approach using network analysis," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 41-48.
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