IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v178y2018icp108-117.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamic availability assessment of safety critical systems using a dynamic Bayesian network

Author

Listed:
  • Amin, Md. Tanjin
  • Khan, Faisal
  • Imtiaz, Syed

Abstract

Availability analysis of safety critical systems is an integral part of ensuring safety both in onshore and offshore process operations. However, the availability assessment of these systems is complex due to their multistate failure scenarios (dormant failure and failure on demand) and multistate functionality (operational failure). In the present study, a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN)-based dynamic availability assessment technique is proposed. This approach offers much flexibility in representing different failure scenarios and the interdependence of failure causes. Sensitivity and importance analyses have also been performed to identify the most influential failure causes. This helps to design better management strategies and provides more realistic reliance on safety critical systems. Applications of the proposed methodology are demonstrated on two safety critical systems: a fire alarm system and a hazard scenario in a steam generation system. This methodology will offer a pivotal step forward in dynamic safety analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Amin, Md. Tanjin & Khan, Faisal & Imtiaz, Syed, 2018. "Dynamic availability assessment of safety critical systems using a dynamic Bayesian network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 108-117.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:178:y:2018:i:c:p:108-117
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2018.05.017
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832017314771
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2018.05.017?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Salazar, Jean C. & Weber, Philippe & Nejjari, Fatiha & Sarrate, Ramon & Theilliol, Didier, 2017. "System reliability aware Model Predictive Control framework," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 663-672.
    2. Kohda, Takehisa & Cui, Weimin, 2007. "Risk-based reconfiguration of safety monitoring system using dynamic Bayesian network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(12), pages 1716-1723.
    3. Rajpal, P.S. & Shishodia, K.S. & Sekhon, G.S., 2006. "An artificial neural network for modeling reliability, availability and maintainability of a repairable system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 91(7), pages 809-819.
    4. Andrea Saltelli, 2002. "Sensitivity Analysis for Importance Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(3), pages 579-590, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Guohua & Li, Geliang & Xie, Mulin & Xu, Qiming & Zhang, Geng, 2024. "A probabilistic analysis method based on Noisy-OR gate Bayesian network for hydrogen leakage of proton exchange membrane fuel cell," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    2. Abaei, Mohammad Mahdi & Hekkenberg, Robert & BahooToroody, Ahmad, 2021. "A multinomial process tree for reliability assessment of machinery in autonomous ships," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    3. Taleb-Berrouane, Mohammed & Khan, Faisal & Amyotte, Paul, 2020. "Bayesian Stochastic Petri Nets (BSPN) - A new modelling tool for dynamic safety and reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    4. Alsulieman, Abdullah & Ge, Xihe & Zeng, Zhiguo & Butenko, Sergiy & Khan, Faisal & El-Halwagi, Mahmoud, 2024. "Dynamic risk analysis of evolving scenarios in oil and gas separator," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    5. Xu, Jintao & Gui, Maolei & Ding, Rui & Dai, Tao & Zheng, Mengyan & Men, Xinhong & Meng, Fanpeng & Yu, Tao & Sui, Yang, 2023. "A new approach for dynamic reliability analysis of reactor protection system for HPR1000," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    6. Zhao, Xian & Li, Rong & Cao, Shuai & Qiu, Qingan, 2023. "Joint modeling of loading and mission abort policies for systems operating in dynamic environments," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    7. Wang, Zengkai & Zeng, Shengkui & Guo, Jianbin & Che, Haiyang, 2021. "A Bayesian network for reliability assessment of man-machine phased-mission system considering the phase dependencies of human cognitive error," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    8. Moradi, Ramin & Groth, Katrina M., 2020. "Modernizing risk assessment: A systematic integration of PRA and PHM techniques," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    9. Haifeng Bian & Jun Zhang & Ruixue Li & Huanhuan Zhao & Xuexue Wang & Yiping Bai, 2021. "Risk analysis of tripping accidents of power grid caused by typical natural hazards based on FTA-BN model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 106(3), pages 1771-1795, April.
    10. Bhardwaj, U. & Teixeira, A.P. & Guedes Soares, C., 2022. "Bayesian framework for reliability prediction of subsea processing systems accounting for influencing factors uncertainty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PA).
    11. Bhardwaj, U. & Teixeira, A.P. & Guedes Soares, C. & Ariffin, A.K. & Singh, S.S., 2021. "Evidence based risk analysis of fire and explosion accident scenarios in FPSOs," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    12. Dong-Kyeong Lee & Yebin Lee & Byungwoon Park, 2023. "Carrier Phase Residual Modeling and Fault Monitoring Using Short-Baseline Double Difference and Machine Learning," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-21, June.
    13. Huang, Wencheng & Kou, Xingyi & Zhang, Yue & Mi, Rongwei & Yin, Dezhi & Xiao, Wei & Liu, Zhanru, 2021. "Operational failure analysis of high-speed electric multiple units: A Bayesian network-K2 algorithm-expectation maximization approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    14. Tsoumpris, Charalampos & Theotokatos, Gerasimos, 2023. "A decision-making approach for the health-aware energy management of ship hybrid power plants," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    15. Yi Yang & John Dalsgaard Sørensen, 2020. "Probabilistic Availability Analysis for Marine Energy Transfer Subsystem Using Bayesian Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-27, October.
    16. Guo, Jian & Ma, Kaijiang, 2024. "Risk analysis for hazardous chemical vehicle-bridge transportation system: A dynamic Bayesian network model incorporating vehicle dynamics," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    17. Adumene, Sidum & Khan, Faisal & Adedigba, Sunday & Zendehboudi, Sohrab & Shiri, Hodjat, 2021. "Dynamic risk analysis of marine and offshore systems suffering microbial induced stochastic degradation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    18. Lewis, Austin D. & Groth, Katrina M., 2023. "A comparison of DBN model performance in SIPPRA health monitoring based on different data stream discretization methods," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    19. Kai Yu & Lujie Zhou & Pingping Liu & Jing Chen & Dejun Miao & Jiansheng Wang, 2022. "Research on a Risk Early Warning Mathematical Model Based on Data Mining in China’s Coal Mine Management," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(21), pages 1-20, October.
    20. Zhou, Kaiwen & Xing, Wenbin & Wang, Jingbo & Li, Huanhuan & Yang, Zaili, 2024. "A data-driven risk model for maritime casualty analysis: A global perspective," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    21. Zhou, Jianxiong & Wei, Shanbi & Chai, Yi, 2021. "Using improved dynamic Bayesian networks in reliability evaluation for flexible test system of aerospace pyromechanical device products," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    22. Liu, Zengkai & Ma, Qiang & Cai, Baoping & Shi, Xuewei & Zheng, Chao & Liu, Yonghong, 2022. "Risk coupling analysis of subsea blowout accidents based on dynamic Bayesian network and NK model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PA).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chuan Wang & Yupeng Liu & Wen Hou & Chao Yu & Guorong Wang & Yuyan Zheng, 2021. "Reliability and availability modeling of Subsea Autonomous High Integrity Pressure Protection System with partial stroke test by Dynamic Bayesian," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 235(2), pages 268-281, April.
    2. Makam, Vaishno Devi & Millossovich, Pietro & Tsanakas, Andreas, 2021. "Sensitivity analysis with χ2-divergences," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 372-383.
    3. S. Cucurachi & E. Borgonovo & R. Heijungs, 2016. "A Protocol for the Global Sensitivity Analysis of Impact Assessment Models in Life Cycle Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(2), pages 357-377, February.
    4. Panagiotis Tsarouhas & Maria Makrygianni, 2017. "A framework for maintenance and combat readiness management of a jet fighter aircraft," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 8(2), pages 1895-1909, November.
    5. Marco Percoco, 2006. "A Note on the Inoperability Input‐Output Model," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(3), pages 589-594, June.
    6. Wenbin Ruan & Zhenzhou Lu & Longfei Tian, 2013. "A modified variance-based importance measure and its solution by state dependent parameter," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 227(1), pages 3-15, February.
    7. Kunz, Nathan & Chesney, Thomas & Trautrims, Alexander & Gold, Stefan, 2023. "Adoption and transferability of joint interventions to fight modern slavery in food supply chains," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    8. Li, Mei & Liu, Zixian & Li, Xiaopeng & Liu, Yiliu, 2019. "Dynamic risk assessment in healthcare based on Bayesian approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 327-334.
    9. Yun, Wanying & Lu, Zhenzhou & Feng, Kaixuan & Li, Luyi, 2019. "An elaborate algorithm for analyzing the Borgonovo moment-independent sensitivity by replacing the probability density function estimation with the probability estimation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 99-108.
    10. Gonnet, Gaston H. & Stewart, John & Lafleur, Joseph & Keith, Stephen & McLellan, Mark & Jiang-Gorsline, David & Snider, Tim, 2021. "Analysis of feature influence on Covid-19 Death Rate Per Country Using a Novel Orthogonalization Technique," MetaArXiv 4kw2n, Center for Open Science.
    11. Abdur Rahim Hamidi & Jiangwei Wang & Shiyao Guo & Zhongping Zeng, 2020. "Flood vulnerability assessment using MOVE framework: a case study of the northern part of district Peshawar, Pakistan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 101(2), pages 385-408, March.
    12. Kamoonpuri, Sana Zehra & Sengar, Anita, 2023. "Hi, May AI help you? An analysis of the barriers impeding the implementation and use of artificial intelligence-enabled virtual assistants in retail," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    13. Wenbin Ruan & Zhenzhou Lu & Pengfei Wei, 2013. "Estimation of conditional moment by moving least squares and its application for importance analysis," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 227(6), pages 641-650, December.
    14. Pesenti, Silvana M. & Millossovich, Pietro & Tsanakas, Andreas, 2019. "Reverse sensitivity testing: What does it take to break the model?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 274(2), pages 654-670.
    15. Li, Haihe & Wang, Pan & Huang, Xiaoyu & Zhang, Zheng & Zhou, Changcong & Yue, Zhufeng, 2021. "Vine copula-based parametric sensitivity analysis of failure probability-based importance measure in the presence of multidimensional dependencies," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    16. Emanuele Borgonovo, 2006. "Measuring Uncertainty Importance: Investigation and Comparison of Alternative Approaches," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(5), pages 1349-1361, October.
    17. Jung, WoongHee & Taflanidis, Alexandros A., 2023. "Efficient global sensitivity analysis for high-dimensional outputs combining data-driven probability models and dimensionality reduction," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    18. C. L. Smith & E. Borgonovo, 2007. "Decision Making During Nuclear Power Plant Incidents—A New Approach to the Evaluation of Precursor Events," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(4), pages 1027-1042, August.
    19. Paleari, Livia & Movedi, Ermes & Zoli, Michele & Burato, Andrea & Cecconi, Irene & Errahouly, Jabir & Pecollo, Eleonora & Sorvillo, Carla & Confalonieri, Roberto, 2021. "Sensitivity analysis using Morris: Just screening or an effective ranking method?," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 455(C).
    20. Andrea Saltelli & Arnald Puy, 2023. "What can mathematical modelling contribute to a sociology of quantification?," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-8, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:178:y:2018:i:c:p:108-117. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.