IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v207y2021ics0951832020308735.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Bayesian network for reliability assessment of man-machine phased-mission system considering the phase dependencies of human cognitive error

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, Zengkai
  • Zeng, Shengkui
  • Guo, Jianbin
  • Che, Haiyang

Abstract

Existing researches on the reliability assessment of phased-mission systems (PMSs) focus mainly on the phase dependencies of the machine state. However, with regard to the man-machine PMS (MMPMS), it also has non-negligible phase dependencies of human cognitive error. For example, the error of omission in previous phase may result in an identical error if the operator experiences a similar working scenario in a subsequent phase. To address the phase dependencies of human cognitive error, a novel method for the reliability assessment of MMPMS is proposed. First, the phase dependencies of human cognitive error are analyzed and categorized into four types based on the framework of situation awareness. A decision tree is then developed to quantify the dependence level. Second, the Bayesian network (BN) is used to construct the system reliability model for each phase from the perspective of mental model. Subsequently, the phase dependencies of machine state and of human cognitive error are mapped to BN to integrate constructed single-phase models as a multi-phase system reliability model. Third, the reliability of MMPMS can be assessed based on the conditional probabilities of all the nodes. Finally, the proposed method is exemplified with a multi-phase reconnaissance mission of an unmanned aerial vehicle.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Zengkai & Zeng, Shengkui & Guo, Jianbin & Che, Haiyang, 2021. "A Bayesian network for reliability assessment of man-machine phased-mission system considering the phase dependencies of human cognitive error," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:207:y:2021:i:c:s0951832020308735
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2020.107385
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832020308735
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2020.107385?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wang, Chaonan & Xing, Liudong & Amari, Suprasad V. & Tang, Bo, 2020. "Efficient reliability analysis of dynamic k-out-of-n heterogeneous phased-mission systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    2. Wang, Chaonan & Xing, Liudong & Peng, Rui & Pan, Zhusheng, 2017. "Competing failure analysis in phased-mission systems with multiple functional dependence groups," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 24-33.
    3. Musharraf, Mashrura & Smith, Jennifer & Khan, Faisal & Veitch, Brian & MacKinnon, Scott, 2016. "Assessing offshore emergency evacuation behavior in a virtual environment using a Bayesian Network approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 28-37.
    4. Lu, Ji-Min & Wu, Xiao-Yue & Liu, Yiliu & Ann Lundteigen, Mary, 2015. "Reliability analysis of large phased-mission systems with repairable components based on success-state sampling," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 123-133.
    5. Chang, Y.H.J. & Mosleh, A., 2007. "Cognitive modeling and dynamic probabilistic simulation of operating crew response to complex system accidents," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(8), pages 1041-1060.
    6. Zhai, Qingqing & Xing, Liudong & Peng, Rui & Yang, Jun, 2018. "Aggregated combinatorial reliability model for non-repairable parallel phased-mission systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 242-250.
    7. Li, Xiang-Yu & Huang, Hong-Zhong & Li, Yan-Feng, 2018. "Reliability analysis of phased mission system with non-exponential and partially repairable components," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 119-127.
    8. Mkrtchyan, L. & Podofillini, L. & Dang, V.N., 2015. "Bayesian belief networks for human reliability analysis: A review of applications and gaps," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 1-16.
    9. Di Pasquale, Valentina & Miranda, Salvatore & Iannone, Raffaele & Riemma, Stefano, 2015. "A Simulator for Human Error Probability Analysis (SHERPA)," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 17-32.
    10. Li, Mei & Liu, Zixian & Li, Xiaopeng & Liu, Yiliu, 2019. "Dynamic risk assessment in healthcare based on Bayesian approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 327-334.
    11. Huang, Xianzhen & Aslett, Louis J.M. & Coolen, Frank P.A., 2019. "Reliability analysis of general phased mission systems with a new survival signature," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 416-422.
    12. Chang, Y.H.J. & Mosleh, A., 2007. "Cognitive modeling and dynamic probabilistic simulation of operating crew response to complex system accidents. Part 2: IDAC performance influencing factors model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(8), pages 1014-1040.
    13. Chang, Y.H.J. & Mosleh, A., 2007. "Cognitive modeling and dynamic probabilistic simulation of operating crew response to complex system accidents. Part 4: IDAC causal model of operator problem-solving response," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(8), pages 1061-1075.
    14. Chang, Y.H.J. & Mosleh, A., 2007. "Cognitive modeling and dynamic probabilistic simulation of operating crew response to complex system accidents," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(8), pages 997-1013.
    15. Wu, Xin-yang & Wu, Xiao-Yue, 2015. "Extended object-oriented Petri net model for mission reliability simulation of repairable PMS with common cause failures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 109-119.
    16. Liu, Hu-Chen & Li, Zhaojun & Zhang, Jian-Qing & You, Xiao-Yue, 2018. "A large group decision making approach for dependence assessment in human reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 135-144.
    17. Naderpour, Mohsen & Lu, Jie & Zhang, Guangquan, 2016. "A safety-critical decision support system evaluation using situation awareness and workload measures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 147-159.
    18. Hegde, Jeevith & Utne, Ingrid Bouwer & Schjølberg, Ingrid & Thorkildsen, Brede, 2018. "A Bayesian approach to risk modeling of autonomous subsea intervention operations," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 142-159.
    19. Amin, Md. Tanjin & Khan, Faisal & Imtiaz, Syed, 2018. "Dynamic availability assessment of safety critical systems using a dynamic Bayesian network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 108-117.
    20. Wang, Yujie & Xing, Liudong & Levitin, Gregory & Huang, Ning, 2018. "Probabilistic competing failure analysis in phased-mission systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 37-51.
    21. Naderpour, Mohsen & Lu, Jie & Zhang, Guangquan, 2015. "An abnormal situation modeling method to assist operators in safety-critical systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 33-47.
    22. Chang, Y.H.J. & Mosleh, A., 2007. "Cognitive modeling and dynamic probabilistic simulation of operating crew response to complex system accidents," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(8), pages 1076-1101.
    23. Lee, Hyun-Chul & Seong, Poong-Hyun, 2009. "A computational model for evaluating the effects of attention, memory, and mental models on situation assessment of nuclear power plant operators," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(11), pages 1796-1805.
    24. Zwirglmaier, Kilian & Straub, Daniel & Groth, Katrina M., 2017. "Capturing cognitive causal paths in human reliability analysis with Bayesian network models," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 117-129.
    25. Li, Xiang-Yu & Li, Yan-Feng & Huang, Hong-Zhong & Zio, Enrico, 2018. "Reliability assessment of phased-mission systems under random shocks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 352-361.
    26. Shirley, Rachel Benish & Smidts, Carol & Zhao, Yunfei, 2020. "Development of a quantitative Bayesian network mapping objective factors to subjective performance shaping factor evaluations: An example using student operators in a digital nuclear power plant simul," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Li, Xin & Chen, Chao & Hong, Yi-du & Yang, Fu-qiang, 2023. "Exploring hazardous chemical explosion accidents with association rules and Bayesian networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    2. Podofillini, Luca & Reer, Bernhard & Dang, Vinh N., 2023. "A traceable process to develop Bayesian networks from scarce data and expert judgment: A human reliability analysis application," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    3. Catelani, Marcantonio & Ciani, Lorenzo & Guidi, Giulia & Patrizi, Gabriele, 2021. "An enhanced SHERPA (E-SHERPA) method for human reliability analysis in railway engineering," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    4. Li, Jingkui & Lu, Yuze & Liu, Xiaona & Jiang, Xiuhong, 2023. "Reliability analysis of cold-standby phased-mission system based on GO-FLOW methodology and the universal generating function," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    5. Fan, Shiqi & Yang, Zaili, 2024. "Accident data-driven human fatigue analysis in maritime transport using machine learning," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    6. Wu, Xinyang & Yu, Haiyue & Balakrishnan, Narayanaswamy, 2022. "Modular model and algebraic phase algorithm for reliability modelling and evaluation of phased-mission systems with conflicting phase redundancy," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    7. Garg, Vipul & Vinod, Gopika & Kant, Vivek, 2023. "Auto-CREAM: Software application for evaluation of HEP with basic and extended CREAM for PSA studies," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    8. Che, Haiyang & Zeng, Shengkui & Li, Kehui & Guo, Jianbin, 2022. "Reliability analysis of load-sharing man-machine systems subject to machine degradation, human errors, and random shocks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    9. Wang, Chaonan & Xing, Liudong & Yu, Jingui & Guan, Quanlong & Yang, Chunhui & Yu, Min, 2023. "Phase reduction for efficient reliability analysis of dynamic k-out-of-n phased mission systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    10. Wang, Chaonan & Xing, Liudong & Su, Yujie & Guan, Quanlong & Tang, Bo & Hu, Yuliang, 2023. "Reliability analysis of dynamic voting phased-mission systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    11. Levitin, Gregory & Xing, Liudong & Dai, Yuanshun, 2022. "Optimal loading of repairable system with perfect product storage," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    12. Garg, Vipul & Vinod, Gopika & Prasad, Mahendra & Chattopadhyay, J. & Smith, Curtis & Kant, Vivek, 2023. "Human reliability analysis studies from simulator experiments using Bayesian inference," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    13. Levitin, Gregory & Xing, Liudong & Dai, Yuanshun, 2022. "Optimizing the maximum filling level of perfect storage in system with imperfect production unit," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    14. Xiao, Yong & Wei, Shanbi & Chai, Yi & Pan, Tianle & Hou, Yang, 2023. "Reliability optimization of flexible test system based on pyro-mechanical device products production driven," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    15. Zhou, Jian-Lan & Yu, Ze-Tai & Xiao, Ren-Bin, 2022. "A large-scale group Success Likelihood Index Method to estimate human error probabilities in the railway driving process," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    16. Wang, Xiaolin & Xu, Jihui & Zhang, Lei & Wang, Ning, 2023. "Mission success probability optimizing of phased mission system balancing the phase backup and system risk: A novel GERT mechanism," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhao, Yunfei & Smidts, Carol, 2021. "CMS-BN: A cognitive modeling and simulation environment for human performance assessment, part 1 — methodology," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    2. Li, Jue & Li, Heng & Wang, Fan & Cheng, Andy S.K. & Yang, Xincong & Wang, Hongwei, 2021. "Proactive analysis of construction equipment operators’ hazard perception error based on cognitive modeling and a dynamic Bayesian network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    3. Wang, Lijing & Wang, Yanlong & Chen, Yingchun & Pan, Xing & Zhang, Wenjin & Zhu, Yanzhi, 2020. "Methodology for assessing dependencies between factors influencing airline pilot performance reliability: A case of taxiing tasks," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    4. Groth, Katrina M. & Smith, Reuel & Moradi, Ramin, 2019. "A hybrid algorithm for developing third generation HRA methods using simulator data, causal models, and cognitive science," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    5. Zhao, Yunfei & Smidts, Carol, 2021. "CMS-BN: A cognitive modeling and simulation environment for human performance assessment, part 2 — Application," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    6. Zarei, Esmaeil & Khan, Faisal & Abbassi, Rouzbeh, 2021. "Importance of human reliability in process operation: A critical analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    7. Bolbot, Victor & Theotokatos, Gerasimos & Bujorianu, Luminita Manuela & Boulougouris, Evangelos & Vassalos, Dracos, 2019. "Vulnerabilities and safety assurance methods in Cyber-Physical Systems: A comprehensive review," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 179-193.
    8. Shirley, Rachel Benish & Smidts, Carol & Zhao, Yunfei, 2020. "Development of a quantitative Bayesian network mapping objective factors to subjective performance shaping factor evaluations: An example using student operators in a digital nuclear power plant simul," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    9. Abrishami, Shokoufeh & Khakzad, Nima & Hosseini, Seyed Mahmoud & van Gelder, Pieter, 2020. "BN-SLIM: A Bayesian Network methodology for human reliability assessment based on Success Likelihood Index Method (SLIM)," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    10. Zhang, Xiaoge & Mahadevan, Sankaran & Lau, Nathan & Weinger, Matthew B., 2020. "Multi-source information fusion to assess control room operator performance," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    11. Vaurio, Jussi K., 2009. "Human factors, human reliability and risk assessment in license renewal of a nuclear power plant," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(11), pages 1818-1826.
    12. Jung, Wondea & Park, Jinkyun & Kim, Yochan & Choi, Sun Yeong & Kim, Seunghwan, 2020. "HuREX – A framework of HRA data collection from simulators in nuclear power plants," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    13. París, C. & Queral, C. & Mula, J. & Gómez-Magán, J. & Sánchez-Perea, M. & Meléndez, E. & Gil, J., 2019. "Quantitative risk reduction by means of recovery strategies," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 13-32.
    14. Wang, Lijing & Wang, Yanlong & Chen, Yingchun & Pan, Xing & Zhang, Wenjin, 2020. "Performance shaping factors dependence assessment through moderating and mediating effect analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    15. Liu, Jianqiao & Zou, Yanhua & Wang, Wei & Zhang, Li & Liu, Xueyang & Ding, Qianqiao & Qin, Zhuomin & ÄŒepin, Marko, 2021. "Analysis of dependencies among performance shaping factors in human reliability analysis based on a system dynamics approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    16. Di Pasquale, Valentina & Miranda, Salvatore & Iannone, Raffaele & Riemma, Stefano, 2015. "A Simulator for Human Error Probability Analysis (SHERPA)," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 17-32.
    17. Bandeira, Michelle Carvalho Galvão Silva Pinto & Correia, Anderson Ribeiro & Martins, Marcelo Ramos, 2018. "General model analysis of aeronautical accidents involving human and organizational factors," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 137-146.
    18. Maturana, Marcos Coelho & Martins, Marcelo Ramos & Frutuoso e Melo, Paulo Fernando Ferreira, 2021. "Application of a quantitative human performance model to the operational procedure design of a fuel storage pool cooling system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    19. Lee, Hyun-Chul & Seong, Poong-Hyun, 2009. "A computational model for evaluating the effects of attention, memory, and mental models on situation assessment of nuclear power plant operators," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(11), pages 1796-1805.
    20. Aminu Darda’u Rafindadi & Nasir Shafiq & Idris Othman & Miljan Mikić, 2023. "Mechanism Models of the Conventional and Advanced Methods of Construction Safety Training. Is the Traditional Method of Safety Training Sufficient?," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(2), pages 1-19, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:207:y:2021:i:c:s0951832020308735. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.