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Temporal decision-making factors in risk analyses of dynamic positioning operations

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  • Hogenboom, Sandra
  • Parhizkar, Tarannom
  • Vinnem, Jan Erik

Abstract

Nearly all dynamic positioning (DP) operations are characterized by limited time available for the DP operator to detect and act upon a loss of position. Collision risk is analyzed with a quantitative risk analysis, which usually does not analyze the human contribution to the risk picture, but rather uses estimates. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the way time (e.g. available time, time required, perceived time available and perceived time required) is addressed in risk analyses for oil and gas DP operations and how this affects safety. The study has found that time required can exceed the time available, and that the effects of perceived time available and perceived time required need to be included in human reliability analysis. In general, awareness needs to be raised around the importance of time. This can be done by including the different aspects of time into risk analyses of DP operations so that effective risk reducing measures can be identified. Furthermore, decision support tools should be developed that integrate the dynamics of the vessel movement over time (time available) and the response time of the operator and system (time required) to address not only what, and how of decision-making, but also when.

Suggested Citation

  • Hogenboom, Sandra & Parhizkar, Tarannom & Vinnem, Jan Erik, 2021. "Temporal decision-making factors in risk analyses of dynamic positioning operations," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:207:y:2021:i:c:s0951832020308383
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2020.107347
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Hu, Yunwei & Parhizkar, Tarannom & Mosleh, Ali, 2022. "Guided simulation for dynamic probabilistic risk assessment of complex systems: Concept, method, and application," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    2. Nejad, Hamed S. & Parhizkar, Tarannom & Mosleh, Ali, 2022. "Automatic generation of event sequence diagrams for guiding simulation based dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (SIMPRA) of complex systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    3. Zhu, Tiantian & Haugen, Stein & Liu, Yiliu & Yang, Xue, 2023. "A value of prediction model to estimate optimal response time to threats for accident prevention," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).

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