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Remaining useful life estimation in heterogeneous fleets working under variable operating conditions

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  • Al-Dahidi, Sameer
  • Di Maio, Francesco
  • Baraldi, Piero
  • Zio, Enrico

Abstract

The availability of condition monitoring data for large fleets of similar equipment motivates the development of data-driven prognostic approaches that capitalize on the information contained in such data to estimate equipment Remaining Useful Life (RUL). A main difficulty is that the fleet of equipment typically experiences different operating conditions, which influence both the condition monitoring data and the degradation processes that physically determine the RUL. We propose an approach for RUL estimation from heterogeneous fleet data based on three phases: firstly, the degradation levels (states) of an homogeneous discrete-time finite-state semi-markov model are identified by resorting to an unsupervised ensemble clustering approach. Then, the parameters of the discrete Weibull distributions describing the transitions among the states and their uncertainties are inferred by resorting to the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method and to the Fisher Information Matrix (FIM), respectively. Finally, the inferred degradation model is used to estimate the RUL of fleet equipment by direct Monte Carlo (MC) simulation. The proposed approach is applied to two case studies regarding heterogeneous fleets of aluminium electrolytic capacitors and turbofan engines. Results show the effectiveness of the proposed approach in predicting the RUL and its superiority compared to a fuzzy similarity-based approach of literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Al-Dahidi, Sameer & Di Maio, Francesco & Baraldi, Piero & Zio, Enrico, 2016. "Remaining useful life estimation in heterogeneous fleets working under variable operating conditions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 109-124.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:156:y:2016:i:c:p:109-124
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2016.07.019
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cadini, F. & Zio, E. & Avram, D., 2009. "Model-based Monte Carlo state estimation for condition-based component replacement," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 752-758.
    2. Le Son, Khanh & Fouladirad, Mitra & Barros, Anne & Levrat, Eric & Iung, Benoît, 2013. "Remaining useful life estimation based on stochastic deterioration models: A comparative study," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 165-175.
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    5. Zio, Enrico & Di Maio, Francesco, 2010. "A data-driven fuzzy approach for predicting the remaining useful life in dynamic failure scenarios of a nuclear system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 49-57.
    6. Moghaddass, Ramin & Zuo, Ming J., 2014. "An integrated framework for online diagnostic and prognostic health monitoring using a multistate deterioration process," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 92-104.
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    Cited by:

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    5. Dourado, Arinan & Viana, Felipe A.C., 2021. "Early life failures and services of industrial asset fleets," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    6. Kamei, Sayaka & Taghipour, Sharareh, 2023. "A comparison study of centralized and decentralized federated learning approaches utilizing the transformer architecture for estimating remaining useful life," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    7. Wang, Wei & Maio, Francesco Di & Zio, Enrico, 2017. "Three-loop Monte Carlo simulation approach to Multi-State Physics Modeling for system reliability assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 276-289.
    8. Sameer Al-Dahidi & Francesco Di Maio & Piero Baraldi & Enrico Zio, 2017. "A locally adaptive ensemble approach for data-driven prognostics of heterogeneous fleets," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 231(4), pages 350-363, August.
    9. Belkacem, Lobna & Simeu-Abazi, Zineb & Dhouibi, Hedi & Gascard, Eric & Messaoud, Hassani, 2017. "Diagnostic and prognostic of hybrid dynamic systems: Modeling and RUL evaluation for two maintenance policies," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 98-109.

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