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A hybrid prognostic method for system degradation based on particle filter and relevance vector machine

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  • Chang, Yang
  • Fang, Huajing

Abstract

Prognostics of the remaining useful life has become a critical technique to ensure the reliability and safety of system, however, due to the uncertainty of system degradation, the prognostic result is usually not so satisfactory. To solve this problem, a hybrid prognostic scheme with the capability of uncertainty assessment is proposed in this paper, which combines particle filter (PF) and relevance vector machine (RVM). The prognostic result comprises a set of deterministic prediction values to represent the degradation process and a prediction interval to evaluate the prediction uncertainty. In order to examine the performance of the proposed hybrid method, four types of comparative experiments based on two types of lithium-ion battery datasets and two degradation models are performed. The experimental results show that the proposed hybrid scheme is a reliable prognostic method which can ensure the accuracy of the deterministic prediction result and provide precise assessment for the prediction uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Chang, Yang & Fang, Huajing, 2019. "A hybrid prognostic method for system degradation based on particle filter and relevance vector machine," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 51-63.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:186:y:2019:i:c:p:51-63
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2019.02.011
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Chuang Sun & An Qu & Jun Zhang & Qiyang Shi & Zhenhong Jia, 2022. "Remaining Useful Life Prediction for Lithium-Ion Batteries Based on Improved Variational Mode Decomposition and Machine Learning Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, December.
    6. Yin, Xiuxing & Zhao, Xiaowei & Lin, Jin & Karcanias, Aris, 2020. "Reliability aware multi-objective predictive control for wind farm based on machine learning and heuristic optimizations," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
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    9. Tang, Ting & Yuan, Huimei, 2022. "A hybrid approach based on decomposition algorithm and neural network for remaining useful life prediction of lithium-ion battery," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    10. Vrignat, Pascal & Kratz, Frédéric & Avila, Manuel, 2022. "Sustainable manufacturing, maintenance policies, prognostics and health management: A literature review," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PA).
    11. Lyu, Dongzhen & Niu, Guangxing & Liu, Enhui & Zhang, Bin & Chen, Gang & Yang, Tao & Zio, Enrico, 2022. "Time space modelling for fault diagnosis and prognosis with uncertainty management: A general theoretical formulation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    12. Bo Pang & Li Chen & Zuomin Dong, 2022. "Data-Driven Degradation Modeling and SOH Prediction of Li-Ion Batteries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-12, August.
    13. Xu, Zhaoyi & Saleh, Joseph Homer, 2021. "Machine learning for reliability engineering and safety applications: Review of current status and future opportunities," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    14. Gong, Dongliang & Gao, Ying & Kou, Yalin & Wang, Yurang, 2022. "State of health estimation for lithium-ion battery based on energy features," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 257(C).
    15. Zio, Enrico, 2022. "Prognostics and Health Management (PHM): Where are we and where do we (need to) go in theory and practice," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PA).
    16. Shao-Xun Liu & Ya-Fu Zhou & Yan-Liang Liu & Jing Lian & Li-Jian Huang, 2021. "A Method for Battery Health Estimation Based on Charging Time Segment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-15, May.
    17. Zhao, Hongqian & Chen, Zheng & Shu, Xing & Shen, Jiangwei & Lei, Zhenzhen & Zhang, Yuanjian, 2023. "State of health estimation for lithium-ion batteries based on hybrid attention and deep learning," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    18. Lin, Yan-Hui & Jiao, Xin-Lei, 2021. "Adaptive Kernel Auxiliary Particle Filter Method for Degradation State Estimation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    19. Chen, Kui & Badji, Abderrezak & Laghrouche, Salah & Djerdir, Abdesslem, 2022. "Polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cells degradation prediction using multi-kernel relevance vector regression and whale optimization algorithm," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 318(C).
    20. Prakash, Om & Samantaray, Arun Kumar, 2021. "Prognosis of Dynamical System Components with Varying Degradation Patterns using model–data–fusion," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    21. Tianfei Sun & Bizhong Xia & Yifan Liu & Yongzhi Lai & Weiwei Zheng & Huawen Wang & Wei Wang & Mingwang Wang, 2019. "A Novel Hybrid Prognostic Approach for Remaining Useful Life Estimation of Lithium-Ion Batteries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-22, September.

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