IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v230y2023ics0951832022005609.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Remaining useful life estimation for two-phase nonlinear degradation processes

Author

Listed:
  • Hu, Changhua
  • Xing, Yuanxing
  • Du, Dangbo
  • Si, Xiaosheng
  • Zhang, Jianxun

Abstract

Owing to state transformation, operation switching, and degradation mechanisms, the processes of some deteriorating products often exhibit multiphase features. Unlike the traditional single-phase degradation model, the multiphase degradation model must consider the change-point variability and the associated degradation state. Therefore, degradation modeling and remaining useful life (RUL) estimation of the multiphase nonlinear deteriorating system is more challenging. With this consideration, we formulated two multiphase nonlinear degradation models based on the widely used nonlinear Wiener process-based model. Then, by modeling the uncertainty of the degradation state at the change-point, we obtained the exact analytical solutions for the lifetime and RUL estimation based on the two-phase model under the concept of the first passage time. Furthermore, we extended the results of the two-phase model to a multiphase model, and then provided an iterative method for lifetime and RUL estimations. Finally, we presented numerical and practical examples to verify the feasibility of the proposed method.

Suggested Citation

  • Hu, Changhua & Xing, Yuanxing & Du, Dangbo & Si, Xiaosheng & Zhang, Jianxun, 2023. "Remaining useful life estimation for two-phase nonlinear degradation processes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:230:y:2023:i:c:s0951832022005609
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2022.108945
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832022005609
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2022.108945?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Molini, A. & Talkner, P. & Katul, G.G. & Porporato, A., 2011. "First passage time statistics of Brownian motion with purely time dependent drift and diffusion," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(11), pages 1841-1852.
    2. Kwok L. Tsui & Nan Chen & Qiang Zhou & Yizhen Hai & Wenbin Wang, 2015. "Prognostics and Health Management: A Review on Data Driven Approaches," Mathematical Problems in Engineering, Hindawi, vol. 2015, pages 1-17, May.
    3. Zio, Enrico, 2022. "Prognostics and Health Management (PHM): Where are we and where do we (need to) go in theory and practice," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PA).
    4. Zhang, Yong & Xin, Yuqi & Liu, Zhi-wei & Chi, Ming & Ma, Guijun, 2022. "Health status assessment and remaining useful life prediction of aero-engine based on BiGRU and MMoE," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    5. Le Son, Khanh & Fouladirad, Mitra & Barros, Anne & Levrat, Eric & Iung, Benoît, 2013. "Remaining useful life estimation based on stochastic deterioration models: A comparative study," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 165-175.
    6. Zhang, Zhengxin & Si, Xiaosheng & Hu, Changhua & Lei, Yaguo, 2018. "Degradation data analysis and remaining useful life estimation: A review on Wiener-process-based methods," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 271(3), pages 775-796.
    7. Si, Xiao-Sheng & Wang, Wenbin & Hu, Chang-Hua & Zhou, Dong-Hua, 2011. "Remaining useful life estimation - A review on the statistical data driven approaches," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 213(1), pages 1-14, August.
    8. Wen, Yuxin & Wu, Jianguo & Das, Devashish & Tseng, Tzu-Liang(Bill), 2018. "Degradation modeling and RUL prediction using Wiener process subject to multiple change points and unit heterogeneity," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 113-124.
    9. Lin, Chun Pang & Ling, Man Ho & Cabrera, Javier & Yang, Fangfang & Yu, Denis Yau Wai & Tsui, Kwok Leung, 2021. "Prognostics for lithium-ion batteries using a two-phase gamma degradation process model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    10. Yan, Tao & Lei, Yaguo & Li, Naipeng & Wang, Biao & Wang, Wenting, 2021. "Degradation modeling and remaining useful life prediction for dependent competing failure processes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    11. Wang, Pingping & Tang, Yincai & Joo Bae, Suk & He, Yong, 2018. "Bayesian analysis of two-phase degradation data based on change-point Wiener process," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 244-256.
    12. Hu, Yingshi & Lu, Zhenzhou & Jiang, Xia & Wei, Ning & Zhou, Changcong, 2021. "Time-dependent structural system reliability analysis model and its efficiency solution," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    13. Bae, Suk Joo & Yuan, Tao & Ning, Shuluo & Kuo, Way, 2015. "A Bayesian approach to modeling two-phase degradation using change-point regression," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 66-74.
    14. Jianxun Zhang & Xiao He & Xiaosheng Si & Changhua Hu & Donghua Zhou, 2017. "A Novel Multi-Phase Stochastic Model for Lithium-Ion Batteries’ Degradation with Regeneration Phenomena," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-24, October.
    15. Xu, Xiaodong & Tang, Shengjin & Yu, Chuanqiang & Xie, Jian & Han, Xuebing & Ouyang, Minggao, 2021. "Remaining Useful Life Prediction of Lithium-ion Batteries Based on Wiener Process Under Time-Varying Temperature Condition," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cai, Xiao & Li, Naipeng & Xie, Min, 2024. "RUL prediction for two-phase degrading systems considering physical damage observations," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    2. Li, Naipeng & Wang, Mingyang & Lei, Yaguo & Si, Xiaosheng & Yang, Bin & Li, Xiang, 2024. "A nonparametric degradation modeling method for remaining useful life prediction with fragment data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).
    3. Lin, Wenyi & Chai, Yi & Fan, Linchuan & Zhang, Ke, 2024. "Remaining useful life prediction using nonlinear multi-phase Wiener process and variational Bayesian approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    4. Zhu, Ting & Chen, Zhen & Zhou, Di & Xia, Tangbin & Pan, Ershun, 2024. "Adaptive staged remaining useful life prediction of roller in a hot strip mill based on multi-scale LSTM with multi-head attention," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hachem, Hassan & Vu, Hai Canh & Fouladirad, Mitra, 2024. "Different methods for RUL prediction considering sensor degradation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    2. Liao, Guobo & Yin, Hongpeng & Chen, Min & Lin, Zheng, 2021. "Remaining useful life prediction for multi-phase deteriorating process based on Wiener process," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    3. Cai, Xiao & Li, Naipeng & Xie, Min, 2024. "RUL prediction for two-phase degrading systems considering physical damage observations," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    4. Pang, Zhenan & Li, Tianmei & Pei, Hong & Si, Xiaosheng, 2023. "A condition-based prognostic approach for age- and state-dependent partially observable nonlinear degrading system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    5. Zhang, Shuyi & Zhai, Qingqing & Li, Yaqiu, 2023. "Degradation modeling and RUL prediction with Wiener process considering measurable and unobservable external impacts," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    6. Zhang, Jian-Xun & Si, Xiao-Sheng & Du, Dang-Bo & Hu, Chang-Hua & Hu, Chen, 2020. "A novel iterative approach of lifetime estimation for standby systems with deteriorating spare parts," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    7. Ma, Jie & Cai, Li & Liao, Guobo & Yin, Hongpeng & Si, Xiaosheng & Zhang, Peng, 2023. "A multi-phase Wiener process-based degradation model with imperfect maintenance activities," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    8. Chen, Zhen & Li, Yaping & Zhou, Di & Xia, Tangbin & Pan, Ershun, 2021. "Two-phase degradation data analysis with change-point detection based on Gaussian process degradation model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    9. Zhang, Jian-Xun & Du, Dang-Bo & Si, Xiao-Sheng & Hu, Chang-Hua & Zhang, Han-Wen, 2021. "Joint optimization of preventive maintenance and inventory management for standby systems with hybrid-deteriorating spare parts," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    10. Wang, Yu & Liu, Qiufa & Lu, Wenjian & Peng, Yizhen, 2023. "A general time-varying Wiener process for degradation modeling and RUL estimation under three-source variability," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    11. Liu, Di & Wang, Shaoping, 2021. "An artificial neural network supported stochastic process for degradation modeling and prediction," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    12. Xiaodong Xu & Chuanqiang Yu & Shengjin Tang & Xiaoyan Sun & Xiaosheng Si & Lifeng Wu, 2019. "Remaining Useful Life Prediction of Lithium-Ion Batteries Based on Wiener Processes with Considering the Relaxation Effect," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-17, May.
    13. Yan, Bingxin & Ma, Xiaobing & Yang, Li & Wang, Han & Wu, Tianyi, 2020. "A novel degradation-rate-volatility related effect Wiener process model with its extension to accelerated ageing data analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    14. Song, Kai & Cui, Lirong, 2022. "A common random effect induced bivariate gamma degradation process with application to remaining useful life prediction," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    15. Zhang, Fode & Ng, Hon Keung Tony & Shi, Yimin, 2020. "Mis-specification analysis of Wiener degradation models by using f-divergence with outliers," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    16. Qin, Shuidan & Wang, Bing Xing & Wu, Wenhui & Ma, Chao, 2022. "The prediction intervals of remaining useful life based on constant stress accelerated life test data," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 301(2), pages 747-755.
    17. Zhang, Ao & Wang, Zhihua & Bao, Rui & Liu, Chengrui & Wu, Qiong & Cao, Shihao, 2023. "A novel failure time estimation method for degradation analysis based on general nonlinear Wiener processes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    18. Jahani, Salman & Zhou, Shiyu & Veeramani, Dharmaraj, 2021. "Stochastic prognostics under multiple time-varying environmental factors," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    19. Pang, Zhenan & Si, Xiaosheng & Hu, Changhua & Du, Dangbo & Pei, Hong, 2021. "A Bayesian Inference for Remaining Useful Life Estimation by Fusing Accelerated Degradation Data and Condition Monitoring Data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    20. Mukhopadhyay, Koushiki & Liu, Bin & Bedford, Tim & Finkelstein, Maxim, 2023. "Remaining lifetime of degrading systems continuously monitored by degrading sensors," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:230:y:2023:i:c:s0951832022005609. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.