IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/pubeco/v250y2025ics0047272725001677.html

New employer payroll taxes and entrepreneurship

Author

Listed:
  • Guo, Audrey
  • Wallskog, Melanie

Abstract

How costly are taxes for young firms? In this paper, we demonstrate that even small payroll taxes significantly distort hiring decisions and employment growth. First, we leverage cross-sectional variation in the taxes faced by new employers to study how these taxes affect entrepreneurs’ decisions to become employers. We find that higher taxes discourage new firms from hiring their first workers; we estimate an elasticity of the number of new employers to taxes of −0.1. Second, we study tax changes a new employer faces after it enters. We find that higher taxes lead more firms to exit, while also reducing employment for those who survive and leading some firms to avoid taxes by using non-taxable contract labor.

Suggested Citation

  • Guo, Audrey & Wallskog, Melanie, 2025. "New employer payroll taxes and entrepreneurship," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 250(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pubeco:v:250:y:2025:i:c:s0047272725001677
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105469
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0047272725001677
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105469?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or

    for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Guo, Audrey, 2024. "Payroll tax incidence: Evidence from unemployment insurance," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    2. Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato & Owen Zidar, 2016. "Who Benefits from State Corporate Tax Cuts? A Local Labor Markets Approach with Heterogeneous Firms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(9), pages 2582-2624, September.
    3. Emmanuel Saez & Benjamin Schoefer & David Seim, 2019. "Payroll Taxes, Firm Behavior, and Rent Sharing: Evidence from a Young Workers' Tax Cut in Sweden," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(5), pages 1717-1763, May.
    4. repec:osf:socarx:5dahz_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Cullen, Julie Berry & Gordon, Roger H., 2007. "Taxes and entrepreneurial risk-taking: Theory and evidence for the U.S," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(7-8), pages 1479-1505, August.
    6. Anikó Bíró & Réka Branyiczki & Attila Lindner & Lili Márk & Dániel Prinz, 2022. "Firm Heterogeneity and the Impact of Payroll Taxes," KRTK-KTI WORKING PAPERS 2223, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    7. Xavier Giroud & Joshua Rauh, 2019. "State Taxation and the Reallocation of Business Activity: Evidence from Establishment-Level Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(3), pages 1262-1316.
    8. Benzarti, Youssef & Harju, Jarkko, 2021. "Can payroll tax cuts help firms during recessions?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    9. Andrew C. Johnston, 2021. "Unemployment Insurance Taxes and Labor Demand: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Administrative Data," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 266-293, February.
    10. Anderson, Patricia M. & Meyer, Bruce D., 2000. "The effects of the unemployment insurance payroll tax on wages, employment, claims and denials," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1-2), pages 81-106, October.
    11. Anderson, Patricia M. & Meyer, Bruce D., 1997. "The effects of firm specific taxes and government mandates with an application to the U.S. unemployment insurance program," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 119-145, August.
    12. Enrico Moretti & Daniel J. Wilson, 2017. "The Effect of State Taxes on the Geographical Location of Top Earners: Evidence from Star Scientists," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(7), pages 1858-1903, July.
    13. Isaac Sorkin & Melanie Wallskog, 2023. "The Slow Diffusion of Earnings Inequality," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 41(S1), pages 95-127.
    14. Sun, Liyang & Abraham, Sarah, 2021. "Estimating dynamic treatment effects in event studies with heterogeneous treatment effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 175-199.
    15. Papke, Leslie E., 1991. "Interstate business tax differentials and new firm location : Evidence from panel data," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 47-68, June.
    16. John Haltiwanger & Ron S. Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2013. "Who Creates Jobs? Small versus Large versus Young," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(2), pages 347-361, May.
    17. J. David Brown & John S. Earle, 2017. "Finance and Growth at the Firm Level: Evidence from SBA Loans," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(3), pages 1039-1080, June.
    18. Evan Mast, 2020. "Race to the Bottom? Local Tax Break Competition and Business Location," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 288-317, January.
    19. Hans Gersbach & Ulrich Schetter & Maik T Schneider, 2019. "Taxation, Innovation and Entrepreneurship," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(620), pages 1731-1781.
    20. Patricia M. Anderson, 1993. "Linear Adjustment Costs and Seasonal Labor Demand: Evidence from Retail Trade Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(4), pages 1015-1042.
    21. Carlton, Dennis W, 1983. "The Location and Employment Choices of New Firms: An Econometric Model with Discrete and Continuous Endogenous Variables," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(3), pages 440-449, August.
    22. Tazhitdinova, Alisa, 2020. "Are changes of organizational form costly? Income shifting and business entry responses to taxes," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    23. Adelino, Manuel & Schoar, Antoinette & Severino, Felipe, 2015. "House prices, collateral, and self-employment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 288-306.
    24. Ku, Hyejin & Schönberg, Uta & Schreiner, Ragnhild C., 2020. "Do place-based tax incentives create jobs?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    25. Peter J. Klenow & Huiyu Li, 2021. "Innovative Growth Accounting," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 35(1), pages 245-295.
    26. Youssef Benzarti & Jarkko Harju & Tuomas Matikka, 2020. "Does Mandating Social Insurance Affect Entrepreneurial Activity?," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 255-268, June.
    27. Mark Calabria, 2000. "The Census of Construction Industries Database," Journal of Real Estate Literature, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 161-173, January.
    28. Emmanuel Saez & Manos Matsaganis & Panos Tsakloglou, 2012. "Earnings Determination and Taxes: Evidence From a Cohort-Based Payroll Tax Reform in Greece," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(1), pages 493-533.
    29. Johan Hombert & Antoinette Schoar & David Sraer & David Thesmar, 2020. "Can Unemployment Insurance Spur Entrepreneurial Activity? Evidence from France," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(3), pages 1247-1285, June.
    30. Simeon Djankov & Tim Ganser & Caralee McLiesh & Rita Ramalho & Andrei Shleifer, 2010. "The Effect of Corporate Taxes on Investment and Entrepreneurship," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 31-64, July.
    31. E. Mark Curtis & Ryan A. Decker, 2018. "Entrepreneurship and State Taxation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-003, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    32. Audrey Guo, 2023. "The Effects of State Business Taxes on Plant Closures: Evidence from Unemployment Insurance Taxation and Multiestablishment Firms," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(3), pages 580-595, May.
    33. Alicia M. Robb & David T. Robinson, 2014. "The Capital Structure Decisions of New Firms," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(1), pages 153-179, January.
    34. DeBacker, Jason & Heim, Bradley T. & Ramnath, Shanthi P. & Ross, Justin M., 2019. "The impact of state taxes on pass-through businesses: Evidence from the 2012 Kansas income tax reform," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 53-75.
    35. Ryan Decker & John Haltiwanger & Ron Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2014. "The Role of Entrepreneurship in US Job Creation and Economic Dynamism," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(3), pages 3-24, Summer.
    36. Arindrajit Dube & T. William Lester & Michael Reich, 2010. "Minimum Wage Effects Across State Borders: Estimates Using Contiguous Counties," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(4), pages 945-964, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Guo, Audrey, 2020. "The Effects of Unemployment Insurance Taxation on Multi-Establishment Firms," MPRA Paper 97919, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Guo, Audrey, 2024. "Payroll tax incidence: Evidence from unemployment insurance," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    3. E. Mark Curtis & Ryan A. Decker, 2018. "Entrepreneurship and State Taxation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-003, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Massenz, Gabriella, 2023. "On the behavioral effects of tax policy," Other publications TiSEM eb44a9f7-b859-480d-b2e4-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    5. Cockx, Bart & Desiere, Sam, 2024. "Labour costs and the decision to hire the first employee," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    6. repec:osf:socarx:qhs6j_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Adrien Matray & Charles Boissel, 2020. "Higher Dividend Taxes, No Problem! Evidence from Taxing Entrepreneurs in France," Working Papers 276, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    8. Harju, Jarkko & Koivisto, Aliisa & Matikka, Tuomas, 2022. "The effects of corporate taxes on small firms," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    9. Sabrina T. Howell & Filippo Mezzanotti, 2019. "Financing Entrepreneurship through the Tax Code: Angel Investor Tax Credits," NBER Working Papers 26486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Hildegunn E. Stokke, 2021. "Regional payroll tax cuts and individual wages: heterogeneous effects of worker ability and firm productivity," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(6), pages 1360-1384, December.
    11. Enrico Rubolino, 2022. "Taxing the Gender Gap: Labor Market Effects of a Payroll Tax Cut for Women in Italy," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 22.01, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    12. Luca Spataro & Tommaso Crescioli, 2024. "How much capital should be taxed? A review of the quantitative and empirical literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(4), pages 1399-1436, September.
    13. Alon, Titan & Berger, David & Dent, Robert & Pugsley, Benjamin, 2018. "Older and slower: The startup deficit’s lasting effects on aggregate productivity growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 68-85.
    14. Nivala, Annika, 2024. "(No) Effects of Subsidizing the First Employee: Evidence of a Low Take-up Puzzle Among Firms," Working Papers 166, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    15. Tania Babina & Sabrina T. Howell, 2018. "Entrepreneurial Spillovers from Corporate R&D," NBER Working Papers 25360, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Fenizia, Alessandra & Li, Nicholas Y. & Citino, Luca, 2025. "The (In)effectiveness of Targeted Payroll Tax Reductions," IZA Discussion Papers 18233, IZA Network @ LISER.
    17. Benzarti, Youssef & Harju, Jarkko, 2021. "Can payroll tax cuts help firms during recessions?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    18. Xavier Giroud & Joshua Rauh, 2015. "State Taxation and the Reallocation of Business Activity: Evidence from Establishment-Level Data," NBER Working Papers 21534, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Ergete Ferede, 2021. "Entrepreneurship and personal income tax: evidence from Canadian provinces," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 1765-1781, April.
    20. Huang, Li & Jiang, Xiandeng, 2025. "Risk-taking in gambling cultures and social security contributions – evidence from Chinese small and micro enterprises," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    21. Audrey Guo & Andrew C. Johnston, 2021. "The Finance of Unemployment Compensation and Its Consequences," Public Finance Review, , vol. 49(3), pages 392-434, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
    • H71 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • L26 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Entrepreneurship
    • M13 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - New Firms; Startups

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:pubeco:v:250:y:2025:i:c:s0047272725001677. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505578 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.