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Unemployment Insurance Taxes and Labor Demand: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Administrative Data

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  • Andrew C. Johnston

Abstract

To finance unemployment insurance, states raise payroll tax rates on employers who engage in layoffs. Tax rates are, therefore, highest for firms after downturns, potentially hampering labor-market recovery. Using full-population, administrative records from Florida, I estimate the effect of these tax increases on firm behavior leveraging a regression kink design in the tax schedule. Tax hikes reduce hiring and employment substantially, with no effect on layoffs or wages. The results imply unanticipated costs of the financing regime which reduce the optimal benefit by a quarter and account for 12 percent of the unemployment in the wake of the Great Recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew C. Johnston, 2021. "Unemployment Insurance Taxes and Labor Demand: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Administrative Data," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 266-293, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejpol:v:13:y:2021:i:1:p:266-93
    DOI: 10.1257/pol.20190031
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    Cited by:

    1. Guo, Audrey, 2024. "Payroll tax incidence: Evidence from unemployment insurance," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    2. Audrey Guo & Andrew C. Johnston, 2021. "The Finance of Unemployment Compensation and Its Consequences," Public Finance Review, , vol. 49(3), pages 392-434, May.
    3. Guo, Audrey & Johnston, Andrew C., 2020. "The Finance of Unemployment Compensation and its Consequence for the Labor Market," IZA Discussion Papers 13330, IZA Network @ LISER.
    4. Ruffo Hernán & Caullo Laura & Capello Marcelo, 2024. "Efectos de una reforma de la indemnización por despido en Argentina," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4760, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    5. Mark Duggan & Audrey Guo & Andrew C. Johnston, 2022. "Would Broadening the UI Tax Base Help Low-Income Workers?," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 112, pages 107-111, May.
    6. Zhao, Fang & Xu, Jiayi & Fang, Guanfu, 2022. "The heterogeneous effects of employment-based pension policies on employment: Evidence from urban China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    7. Mark Duggan & Audrey Guo & Andrew C. Johnston, 2023. "Experience Rating as an Automatic Stabilizer," Tax Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(1), pages 109-133.
    8. Gert Bijnens & Shyngys Karimov & Jozef Konings, 2023. "Does Automatic Wage Indexation Destroy Jobs? A Machine Learning Approach," De Economist, Springer, vol. 171(1), pages 85-117, March.
    9. Guo, Audrey & Wallskog, Melanie, 2025. "New employer payroll taxes and entrepreneurship," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 250(C).
    10. Nathaniel Hilger, 2017. "All Together Now: Leveraging Firms to Increase Worker Productivity Growth," NBER Working Papers 23905, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Timpe, Brenden, 2024. "The labor market impacts of America’s first paid maternity leave policy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    12. Nynke de Groot & Pierre Koning, 2022. "A burden too big to bear? The effect of experience‐rated disability insurance premiums on firm bankruptcies and employment," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 124(1), pages 214-242, January.
    13. Kyyrä, Tomi & Tuomala, Juha, 2023. "The effects of employers’ disability and unemployment insurance costs on benefit inflows," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    14. Li, Rui & Zhu, Zhikai & Wang, Xiaoyan, 2023. "Pension insurance contributions and ESG performance: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PD).
    15. Marta Lachowska & Isaac Sorkin & Stephen A. Woodbury, 2022. "Firms and Unemployment Insurance Take-up," NBER Working Papers 30266, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Rich Ryan, 2024. "Unemployment volatility: When workers pay costs upon accepting jobs," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 20(3), pages 303-333, September.
    17. Guo, Audrey, 2020. "The Effects of Unemployment Insurance Taxation on Multi-Establishment Firms," MPRA Paper 97919, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Albertini, Julien & Fairise, Xavier & Terriau, Anthony, 2023. "Unemployment insurance, recalls, and experience rating," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    19. Marta Lachowska & Wayne Vroman & Stephen A. Woodbury, 2020. "Experience Rating and the Dynamics of Financing Unemployment Insurance," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 73(3), pages 673-698, September.
    20. Dongil Daniel Keum & Stephan Meier, 2024. "License to Layoff? Unemployment Insurance and the Moral Cost of Layoffs," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 35(3), pages 994-1014, May.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
    • H32 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Firm
    • H71 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J65 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment Insurance; Severance Pay; Plant Closings

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