IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v510y2018icp132-144.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Information measure for financial time series: Quantifying short-term market heterogeneity

Author

Listed:
  • Ponta, Linda
  • Carbone, Anna

Abstract

A well-interpretable measure of information has been recently proposed based on a partition obtained by intersecting a random sequence with its moving average. The partition yields disjoint sets of the sequence, which are then ranked according to their size to form a probability distribution function and finally fed in the expression of the Shannon entropy. In this work, such entropy measure is implemented on the time series of prices and volatilities of six financial markets. The analysis has been performed, on tick-by-tick data sampled every minute for six years of data from 1999 to 2004, for a broad range of moving average windows and volatility horizons. The study shows that the entropy of the volatility series depends on the individual market, while the entropy of the price series is practically invariant for the six markets. Finally, a cumulative information measure – the Market Heterogeneity Index – derived from the integral of the entropy measure, is introduced for obtaining the weights of an Efficient Portfolio. A comparison with the weights obtained by using the Sharpe ratio – a traditional risk diversity measure – is also reported.

Suggested Citation

  • Ponta, Linda & Carbone, Anna, 2018. "Information measure for financial time series: Quantifying short-term market heterogeneity," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 510(C), pages 132-144.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:510:y:2018:i:c:p:132-144
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2018.06.085
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437118308100
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.physa.2018.06.085?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Julie Le Gallo & Sandy Dall’erba, 2006. "Evaluating the Temporal and Spatial Heterogeneity of the European Convergence Process, 1980–1999," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(2), pages 269-288, May.
    2. Victor DeMiguel & Lorenzo Garlappi & Raman Uppal, 2009. "Optimal Versus Naive Diversification: How Inefficient is the 1-N Portfolio Strategy?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(5), pages 1915-1953, May.
    3. Gianni Pola, 2016. "On entropy and portfolio diversification," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 17(4), pages 218-228, July.
    4. Bera, Anil K. & Bilias, Yannis, 2002. "The MM, ME, ML, EL, EF and GMM approaches to estimation: a synthesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 107(1-2), pages 51-86, March.
    5. Samuelson, Paul A, 1972. "Maximum Principles in Analytical Economics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(3), pages 249-262, June.
    6. Gunasekarage, Abeyratna & Power, David M., 2001. "The profitability of moving average trading rules in South Asian stock markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 17-33, March.
    7. Chandrinos, Spyros K. & Lagaros, Nikos D., 2018. "Construction of currency portfolios by means of an optimized investment strategy," Operations Research Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 5(C), pages 32-44.
    8. Jianshe Ou, 2005. "Theory of portfolio and risk based on incremental entropy," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 6(1), pages 31-39, January.
    9. Zhang, Wei-Guo & Liu, Yong-Jun & Xu, Wei-Jun, 2012. "A possibilistic mean-semivariance-entropy model for multi-period portfolio selection with transaction costs," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 222(2), pages 341-349.
    10. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    11. Jiuping Xu & Xiaoyang Zhou & Desheng Wu, 2011. "Portfolio selection using λ mean and hybrid entropy," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 185(1), pages 213-229, May.
    12. Anil Bera & Sung Park, 2008. "Optimal Portfolio Diversification Using the Maximum Entropy Principle," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(4-6), pages 484-512.
    13. Lukas Menkhoff & Mark P. Taylor, 2007. "The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals: Technical Analysis," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 936-972, December.
    14. Contreras, Javier & Rodríguez, Yeny E. & Sosa, Aníbal, 2017. "Construction of an efficient portfolio of power purchase decisions based on risk-diversification tradeoff," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 286-297.
    15. Frömmel, Michael & Lampaert, Kevin, 2016. "Does frequency matter for intraday technical trading?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 177-183.
    16. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    17. Bekiros, Stelios & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Sandoval Junior, Leonidas & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2017. "Information diffusion, cluster formation and entropy-based network dynamics in equity and commodity markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 256(3), pages 945-961.
    18. Mihaly Ormos & David Zibriczky, 2015. "Entropy-Based Financial Asset Pricing," Papers 1501.01155, arXiv.org.
    19. Mihály Ormos & Dávid Zibriczky, 2014. "Entropy-Based Financial Asset Pricing," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(12), pages 1-21, December.
    20. Nikolay Gospodinov & Esfandiar Maasoumi, 2017. "General Aggregation of Misspecified Asset Pricing Models," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2017-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    21. Smith, David M. & Wang, Na & Wang, Ying & Zychowicz, Edward J., 2016. "Sentiment and the Effectiveness of Technical Analysis: Evidence from the Hedge Fund Industry," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(6), pages 1991-2013, December.
    22. Smimou, K. & Bector, C.R. & Jacoby, G., 2007. "A subjective assessment of approximate probabilities with a portfolio application," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 134-160, June.
    23. Eric Marcon & Ivan Scotti & Bruno Hérault & Vivien Rossi & Gabriel Lang, 2014. "Generalization of the Partitioning of Shannon Diversity," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(3), pages 1-8, March.
    24. Golan, Amos, 2008. "Information and Entropy Econometrics — A Review and Synthesis," Foundations and Trends(R) in Econometrics, now publishers, vol. 2(1–2), pages 1-145, February.
    25. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    26. Carbone, Anna & Stanley, H. Eugene, 2007. "Scaling properties and entropy of long-range correlated time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 384(1), pages 21-24.
    27. Meucci, A. & Nicolosi, M., 2016. "Dynamic portfolio management with views at multiple horizons," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 274(C), pages 495-518.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Charu Sharma & Amber Habib, 2019. "Mutual information based stock networks and portfolio selection for intraday traders using high frequency data: An Indian market case study," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(8), pages 1-19, August.
    2. Pietro Murialdo & Linda Ponta & Anna Carbone, 2020. "Long-Range Dependence in Financial Markets: a Moving Average Cluster Entropy Approach," Papers 2004.14736, arXiv.org.
    3. Assaf, Ata & Charif, Husni & Demir, Ender, 2022. "Information sharing among cryptocurrencies: Evidence from mutual information and approximate entropy during COVID-19," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    4. Qin, Guyue & Shang, Pengjian, 2021. "Analysis of time series using a new entropy plane based on past entropy," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    5. Shouzhen Zeng & Shahzaib Asharf & Muhammad Arif & Saleem Abdullah, 2019. "Application of Exponential Jensen Picture Fuzzy Divergence Measure in Multi-Criteria Group Decision Making," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-16, February.
    6. Wei Dong & Qiang Yang & Xinli Fang, 2018. "Multi-Step Ahead Wind Power Generation Prediction Based on Hybrid Machine Learning Techniques," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-19, July.
    7. V Dimitrova & M Fernández-Martínez & M A Sánchez-Granero & J E Trinidad Segovia, 2019. "Some comments on Bitcoin market (in)efficiency," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(7), pages 1-14, July.
    8. Ponta, Linda & Murialdo, Pietro & Carbone, Anna, 2021. "Information measure for long-range correlated time series: Quantifying horizon dependence in financial markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 570(C).
    9. Masoud Ahmadipour & Hashim Hizam & Mohammad Lutfi Othman & Mohd Amran Mohd Radzi, 2018. "An Anti-Islanding Protection Technique Using a Wavelet Packet Transform and a Probabilistic Neural Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-31, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ponta, Linda & Murialdo, Pietro & Carbone, Anna, 2021. "Information measure for long-range correlated time series: Quantifying horizon dependence in financial markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 570(C).
    2. L. Ponta & A. Carbone, 2019. "Quantifying horizon dependence of asset prices: a cluster entropy approach," Papers 1908.00257, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2020.
    3. Nathan Lassance & Frédéric Vrins, 2021. "Minimum Rényi entropy portfolios," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 299(1), pages 23-46, April.
    4. Pietro Murialdo & Linda Ponta & Anna Carbone, 2020. "Long-Range Dependence in Financial Markets: a Moving Average Cluster Entropy Approach," Papers 2004.14736, arXiv.org.
    5. Rodríguez, Yeny E. & Gómez, Juan M. & Contreras, Javier, 2021. "Diversified behavioral portfolio as an alternative to Modern Portfolio Theory," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    6. Klaus Schredelseker, 2012. "Finanzkrise — Mitschuld der Theorie?," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 64(8), pages 833-845, December.
    7. Bao, Te & Diks, Cees & Li, Hao, 2018. "A generalized CAPM model with asymmetric power distributed errors with an application to portfolio construction," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 611-621.
    8. Allen, D.E. & McAleer, M.J. & Powell, R.J. & Singh, A.K., 2015. "Down-side Risk Metrics as Portfolio Diversification Strategies across the GFC," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2015-32, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    9. Botor, Benjamin & Böcker, Benjamin & Kallabis, Thomas & Weber, Christoph, 2021. "Information shocks and profitability risks for power plant investments – impacts of policy instruments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    10. Boudt, Kris & Raza, Muhammad Wajid & Wauters, Marjan, 2019. "Evaluating the Shariah-compliance of equity portfolios: The weighting method matters," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 406-417.
    11. Onali, Enrico & Goddard, John, 2011. "Are European equity markets efficient? New evidence from fractal analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 59-67, April.
    12. Thomas J. Brennan & Andrew W. Lo, 2010. "Impossible Frontiers," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(6), pages 905-923, June.
    13. Mishra, Sasmita & Padhy, Sudarsan & Mishra, Satya Narayan & Misra, Satya Narayan, 2021. "A novel LASSO – TLBO – SVR hybrid model for an efficient portfolio construction," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    14. Ikhlaas Gurrib & Mohammad Nourani & Rajesh Kumar Bhaskaran, 2022. "Energy crypto currencies and leading U.S. energy stock prices: are Fibonacci retracements profitable?," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-27, December.
    15. Ikhlaas Gurrib & Firuz Kamalov & Elgilani Elshareif, 2021. "Can the Leading US Energy Stock Prices be Predicted using the Ichimoku Cloud?," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(1), pages 41-51.
    16. Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2018. "Fractality in market risk structure: Dow Jones Industrial components case," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 69-75.
    17. Marielle de Jong & Lauren Stagnol, 2016. "A fundamental bond index including solvency criteria," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 17(4), pages 280-294, July.
    18. Morten Balling & Ernest Gnan, 2013. "The development of financial markets and financial theory: 50 years of interaction," SUERF 50th Anniversary Volume Chapters, in: Morten Balling & Ernest Gnan (ed.), 50 Years of Money and Finance: Lessons and Challenges, chapter 5, pages 157-194, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.
    19. DiTraglia, Francis J. & Gerlach, Jeffrey R., 2013. "Portfolio selection: An extreme value approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 305-323.
    20. Bennett, Donyetta & Mekelburg, Erik & Williams, T.H., 2023. "BeFi meets DeFi: A behavioral finance approach to decentralized finance asset pricing," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:510:y:2018:i:c:p:132-144. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.