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Rational instability in the natural coalition forming


  • Vinogradova, Galina
  • Galam, Serge


The work aims to investigate a paradigm of instability in coalition forming among countries, using a model inspired from Statistical Physics. The instability is a consequence of decentralized maximization of the individual benefits where contradictory associations into coalitions occur due to independent evolution of pairwise propensity bonds. In contrast to the existing literature we analyze the phenomena within a long horizon rationality of actors. This allows to explore the complex behaviors and phenomena such as instability, infinite cycling and non-optimal stability. Along with the formal implementation, we illustrate the phenomena in a multi-thread simulation created for this aim, and provide analysis of several real cases including the Eurozone.

Suggested Citation

  • Vinogradova, Galina & Galam, Serge, 2013. "Rational instability in the natural coalition forming," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(23), pages 6025-6040.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:392:y:2013:i:23:p:6025-6040
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2013.07.065

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Axelrod, Robert & Bennett, D. Scott, 1993. "A Landscape Theory of Aggregation," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(2), pages 211-233, April.
    2. Galam, Serge, 1998. "Comment on ‘A Landscape Theory of Aggregation’," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(2), pages 411-412, April.
    3. Daron Acemoglu & Georgy Egorov & Konstantin Sonin, 2012. "Dynamics and Stability of Constitutions, Coalitions, and Clubs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1446-1476, June.
    4. Galam, Serge, 1996. "Fragmentation versus stability in bimodal coalitions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 230(1), pages 174-188.
    5. Naumis, Gerardo G. & Samaniego-Steta, F. & del Castillo-Mussot, M. & Vázquez, G.J., 2007. "Three-body interactions in sociophysics and their role in coalition forming," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 379(1), pages 226-234.
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