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Consumption and expected asset returns without assumptions about unobservables

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  • Whelan, Karl

Abstract

If asset returns are predictable, then rational expectations and the arithmetic of budget constraints together imply that these predictable changes in returns should affect current consumption. This paper presents a new framework linking consumption, income, and observable assets to expectations of future asset returns. Relative to previous work on this topic, the framework proposed in this paper has a number of advantages including not relying on untestable assumptions concerning unobservable variables and not requiring estimation of unknown parameters to arrive at a forecasting variable.

Suggested Citation

  • Whelan, Karl, 2008. "Consumption and expected asset returns without assumptions about unobservables," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(7), pages 1209-1221, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:55:y:2008:i:7:p:1209-1221
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2007. "The Unsustainable U.S. Current Account Position Revisited," NBER Chapters,in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 339-376 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    3. Palumbo, Michael & Rudd, Jeremy & Whelan, Karl, 2006. "On the Relationships Between Real Consumption, Income, and Wealth," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, pages 1-11.
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    5. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey, 2007. "International Financial Adjustment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(4), pages 665-703, August.
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    7. Campbell, John Y, 1993. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing without Consumption Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 487-512.
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    13. Stambaugh, Robert F., 1999. "Predictive regressions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 375-421, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Ricardo M. Souza, 2011. "Are Stock and Housing Returns Complements or Substitutes?: Evidence from OECD Countries," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1158, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2016. "Consumption, wealth, stock and housing returns: Evidence from emerging markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, pages 562-578.
    3. Christian Grisse & Thomas Nitschka, 2016. "Exchange Rate Returns and External Adjustment: Evidence from Switzerland," Open Economies Review, Springer, pages 317-339.
    4. Chauvin, V. & Damette, O., 2010. "Wealth effects: the French case," Working papers 276, Banque de France.
    5. Pierre Lafourcade, 2008. "Are Asset Returns Predictable from the National Accounts?," DNB Working Papers 189, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumption Asset returns;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

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