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Determining underlying macroeconomic fundamentals during emerging market crises: Are conditions as bad as they seem?

  • Aguiar, Mark
  • Broner, Fernando A.

Emerging market crises are characterized by large swings in both macroeconomic fundamentals and asset prices. The economic significance of observed movements in macroeconomic variables is obscured by the brief and extreme nature of crises. In this paper we propose to study the macroeconomic consequences of crises by studying the behavior of "effective" fundamentals, constructed by studying the relative movements of stock prices during crises. We find that these effective fundamentals provide a different picture than that implied by observed fundamentals. First, asset prices often reflect expectations of improvement in fundamentals after the initial devaluations; specifically, effective depreciations are positive but not as large as the observed ones. Second, crises vary in their effect on credit market conditions, with investors expecting tightening of credit in some cases (Mexico 1994, Philippines 1997), but loosening of credit in others (Sweden 1992, Korea 1997, Brazil 1999).

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Monetary Economics.

Volume (Year): 53 (2006)
Issue (Month): 4 (May)
Pages: 699-724

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Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:53:y:2006:i:4:p:699-724
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505566

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  1. Fernando A. Broner & Guido Lorenzoni & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2013. "Why Do Emerging Economies Borrow Short Term?," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11, pages 67-100, 01.
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  4. Mark, Aguiar & Gopinath, Gita, 2005. "Fire-Sale Foreign Direct Investment and Liquidity Crises," Scholarly Articles 3634155, Harvard University Department of Economics.
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  8. Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2005. "Fire-Sale Foreign Direct Investment and Liquidity Crises," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(3), pages 439-452, August.
  9. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferrett & Assaf Razin, 1997. "Sharp Reductions in Current Account Deficits: An Empirical Analyis," NBER Working Papers 6310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  14. Becker, Torbjorn & Gelos, R Gaston & Richards, Anthony J, 2002. "Devaluation Expectations and the Stock Market: A New Measure and an Application to Mexico 1994/95," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(3), pages 195-214, July.
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  17. Aguiar, Mark, 2005. "Investment, devaluation, and foreign currency exposure: The case of Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 95-113, October.
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