Determinacy in linear rational expectations models
The purpose of this paper is to assess the relevance of rational expectations solutions to the class of linear univariate models where both the number of leads in expectations and the number of lags in predetermined variables are arbitrary. It recommends to rule out all the solutions that would fail to be locally unique, or equivalently, locally determinate. So far, this determinacy criterion has been applied to particular solutions, in general some steady state or periodic cycle. However solutions to linear models with rational expectations typically do not conform to such simple dynamic patterns but express instead the current state of the economic system as a linear difference equation of lagged states. The innovation of this paper is to apply the determinacy criterion to the sets of coefficients of these linear difference equations. Its main result shows that only one set of such coefficients, or the corresponding solution, is locally determinate. This solution is commonly referred to as the fundamental one in the literature. In particular, in the saddle point configuration, it coincides with the saddle stable (pure forward) equilibrium trajectory.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bennett McCallum, 1999.
"Role of the Minimal State Variable Criterion in Rational Expectations Models,"
International Tax and Public Finance,
Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 6(4), pages 621-639, November.
- Bennett T. McCallum, . "Role of the minimal state variable criterion in rational expectations models," GSIA Working Papers 1999-13, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
- Gauthier, Stephane, 2002.
"Determinacy and Stability under Learning of Rational Expectations Equilibria,"
Journal of Economic Theory,
Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 354-374, February.
- Gauthier, S., 1999. "Determinacy and Stability under Learning of Rational Expectations Equilibria," DELTA Working Papers 1999-22, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
- Gauthier, S., 1999. "Determinacy and Stability Under Learning of Rational Expectations Equilibria," G.R.E.Q.A.M. 99a46, Universite Aix-Marseille III.
- Stéphane Gauthier, 2002. "Determinacy and Stability under Learning of Rational Expectations Equilibria," Post-Print hal-00731065, HAL.
- Timothy J Kehoe & David K Levine, 1985.
"Comparative Statics and Perfect Foresight in Infinite Horizon Economies,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
1873, David K. Levine.
- Kehoe, Timothy J & Levine, David K, 1985. "Comparative Statics and Perfect Foresight in Infinite Horizon Economies," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 433-53, March.
- Timothy J. Kehoe & David K. Levine, 1982. "Comparitive Statics and Perfect Foresight in Infinite Horizon Economies," UCLA Economics Working Papers 259, UCLA Department of Economics.
- T. J. Kehoe & D. K. Levine, 1982. "Comparative Statics and Perfect Foresight in Infinite Horizon Economies," Working papers 312, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July.
- Chiappori, Pierre-Andre & Geoffard, Pierre-Yves & Guesnerie, Roger, 1992.
"Sunspot Fluctuations around a Steady State: The Case of Multidimensional, One-Step Forward Looking Economic Models,"
Econometric Society, vol. 60(5), pages 1097-126, September.
- Chiappori, P.A. & Geoffard, P.Y. & Guesnerie, R., 1990. "Sunspot Fluctuations around a Steady State: The Case of Multidimensional One-Step forward Looking Economic Models," DELTA Working Papers 90-02, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
- G. Desgranges & Stéphane Gauthier, 2003.
"Uniqueness of bubble-free solution in linear rational expectations models,"
- Desgranges, Gabriel & Gauthier, St phane, 2003. "Uniqueness Of Bubble-Free Solution In Linear Rational Expectations Models," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(02), pages 171-191, April.
- Guesnerie, Roger, 1993.
"Successes and failures in coordinating expectations,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 243-268, April.
- Guesnerie, R., 1993. "Successes and Failures in Coordinating Expectations," DELTA Working Papers 93-08, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
- Blanchard, Olivier J, 1979. "Backward and Forward Solutions for Economies with Rational Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 114-18, May.
- Gourieroux, C & Laffont, J J & Monfort, Alain, 1982. "Rational Expectations in Dynamic Linear Models: Analysis of the Solutions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(2), pages 409-25, March.
- Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1973. "The Stability of Models of Money and Growth with Perfect Foresight," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(6), pages 1043-48, November.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:mateco:v:40:y:2004:i:7:p:815-830. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.