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GARCH dependence in extreme value models with Bayesian inference

Listed author(s):
  • Zhao, Xin
  • Scarrott, Carl John
  • Oxley, Les
  • Reale, Marco

Extreme value methods are widely used in financial applications such as risk analysis, forecasting and pricing models. One of the challenges with their application in finance is accounting for the temporal dependence between the observations, for example the stylised fact that financial time series exhibit volatility clustering. Various approaches have been proposed to capture the dependence. Commonly a two-stage approach is taken, where the volatility dependence is removed using a volatility model like a GARCH (or one of its many incarnations) followed by application of standard extreme value models to the assumed independent residual innovations.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378475410002703
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM).

Volume (Year): 81 (2011)
Issue (Month): 7 ()
Pages: 1430-1440

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Handle: RePEc:eee:matcom:v:81:y:2011:i:7:p:1430-1440
DOI: 10.1016/j.matcom.2010.08.002
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/mathematics-and-computers-in-simulation/

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  1. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
  2. Verhoeven, Peter & McAleer, Michael, 2004. "Fat tails and asymmetry in financial volatility models," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 351-361.
  3. Bali, Turan G. & Weinbaum, David, 2007. "A conditional extreme value volatility estimator based on high-frequency returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 361-397, February.
  4. McNeil, Alexander J. & Frey, Rudiger, 2000. "Estimation of tail-related risk measures for heteroscedastic financial time series: an extreme value approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 271-300, November.
  5. Hentschel, Ludger, 1995. "All in the family Nesting symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 71-104, September.
  6. Yacine Aït-Sahalia, 2005. "How Often to Sample a Continuous-Time Process in the Presence of Market Microstructure Noise," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(2), pages 351-416.
  7. Enrique Sentana, 1995. "Quadratic ARCH Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 62(4), pages 639-661.
  8. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
  9. McAleer, Michael & Chan, Felix & Marinova, Dora, 2007. "An econometric analysis of asymmetric volatility: Theory and application to patents," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 139(2), pages 259-284, August.
  10. Hang Chan, Ngai & Deng, Shi-Jie & Peng, Liang & Xia, Zhendong, 2007. "Interval estimation of value-at-risk based on GARCH models with heavy-tailed innovations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 137(2), pages 556-576, April.
  11. Xin Zhao & Carl Scarrott & Les Oxley & Marco Reale, 2010. "Extreme value modelling for forecasting market crisis impacts," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1-2), pages 63-72.
  12. Christopher A. T. Ferro & Johan Segers, 2003. "Inference for clusters of extreme values," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 65(2), pages 545-556.
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