Land-use change and long-term socioeconomic outcomes: Studying over six decades of global data (1960–2023)

Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry (LULUCF) dynamics are often evaluated primarily through environmental and ecological perspectives, yet their long-term socioeconomic outcomes remain underexplored. This study analyses global data from 1960 to 2023 to examine how changes in key LULUCF indicators – such as forest area, agricultural land, arable land, and permanent cropland – are linked to socioeconomic indicators across fifteen thematic domains, with time lags ranging from one to ten years. Drawing on longitudinal World Bank datasets, this study uses time-series analyses to capture significant linkages and temporal dynamics. The results reveal significant correlations between past land-use changes and later socioeconomic outcomes, including unexpected links to gender equality, health outcomes, and financial and employment indicators, alongside more conventional connections with Gross Domestic Product, trade, and education. These findings underscore the complex interplay between land-use decisions and socioeconomic dynamics at the country level, emphasising the need for integrated land-use policies that weigh short-term economic gains against long-term social and economic objectives. By demonstrating land use as a strategic lever for achieving equitable, resilient, and sustainable development, this study offers actionable insights to support strategies that jointly advance environmental goals – including climate and ecological targets – and foster lasting socioeconomic progress at local, regional, national, European and global scales.