How does financialization drive land-use transition? Evidence from the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area in China

As a pivotal force reshaping regional economic landscapes, financialization has increasingly influenced land-use transition (LUT). However, existing research provides limited insights into how land financialization drives LUT, and even the measurement of land financialization itself still lacks robust quantitative assessment methods. This study develops a novel indicator to measure land financialization based on land mortgage prices and land leasing prices. Using the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area as a case, it examines the spatiotemporal evolution of land financialization from 2000 to 2020. A panel model with two-way fixed effects is then employed to analyze its impact on LUT. The results reveal that the land financialization index within the study area has steadily increased from 0.60 in 2000–1.11 in 2020, exhibiting a typical “core-periphery” spatial pattern. Further, we find that land financialization overall significantly promotes urban spatial expansion (coefficient = 0.106), and initially reduces land fragmentation (coefficient = –0.207) and land-use multi-functionalization (coefficient = –0.153), although excessive financialization reverses this trend. Moreover, the study identifies heterogeneous impacts on land-use resulting from the financialization of various land types. These findings enhance the understanding of how land financialization drives LUT and provide theoretical foundations and empirical references for future land use policies and financial regulation.