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Transitioning Iran's electricity sector: A system dynamics analysis of renewable energy acceleration and carbon capture strategies to 2040

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  • Pazuki, Mohammad-Mahdi
  • Salimi, Mohsen
  • Safaie, Nasser
  • Amidpour, Majid

Abstract

This study develops a techno-economic-environmental system dynamics model to evaluate Iran's electricity sector through 2040. The model integrates renewable expansion, econometric demand forecasting, climate change feedbacks, and carbon capture policies to assess generation, demand, emissions, and economic outcomes. Under current policy, fossil fuel dependency remains 94 % and CO2 emissions reach 220.11 Mt. Moderate renewable acceleration doubles renewable generation to 63,785 GWh/year, restores export income to 910.2 M USD, and cuts fossil fuel use by 8.7 %. Carbon capture achieves a 36 % emission reduction, bringing CO2 below 2020 levels. Results provide a roadmap for balancing energy security, competitiveness, and climate mitigation.

Suggested Citation

  • Pazuki, Mohammad-Mahdi & Salimi, Mohsen & Safaie, Nasser & Amidpour, Majid, 2025. "Transitioning Iran's electricity sector: A system dynamics analysis of renewable energy acceleration and carbon capture strategies to 2040," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:juipol:v:97:y:2025:i:c:s0957178725001778
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2025.102062
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    References listed on IDEAS

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