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A system dynamics model of the investment capacity of China's power grid under the third regulatory cycle of transmission and distribution tariff reform

Author

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  • Xu, Xiaomin
  • Wang, Zhiyi
  • Zhou, Yingying
  • Cui, Haoxu
  • Zheng, Shipeng
  • Guan, Xiao

Abstract

Under the third regulatory cycle of transmission and distribution tariff (T&D) reform, power grid companies' profit pattern and operation ideas have significantly changed their investment capacity. To accurately assess the investment capacity of companies, this study first reveals the impacts of the reforms on the electricity sales side profit pattern. Then, a system dynamics prediction model is constructed to analyze investment capacity based on these reforms. Finally, the trend of investment capacity is predicted with actual data for a company, and targeted management suggestions are presented based on the sensitivity analysis for power grid companies.

Suggested Citation

  • Xu, Xiaomin & Wang, Zhiyi & Zhou, Yingying & Cui, Haoxu & Zheng, Shipeng & Guan, Xiao, 2025. "A system dynamics model of the investment capacity of China's power grid under the third regulatory cycle of transmission and distribution tariff reform," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:juipol:v:95:y:2025:i:c:s0957178725000839
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2025.101968
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