IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jrpoli/v69y2020ics0301420720308795.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Financial evaluation of mining innovation pilot projects and the value of information

Author

Listed:
  • Samis, Michael
  • Steen, John

Abstract

The mining industry has traditionally used pilot programs to test new technologies and innovative business processes. The recent introduction of lean innovation methods further emphasizes the importance of pilot programs to improve innovation performance. Using Bayesian modelling, we demonstrate that a pilot program can create value regardless of whether there is a high or low level of technical risk associated with introducing new technology. Indeed, for new technologies with high failure probabilities, pilot programs are the only path for creating value. This study presents equations needed to calculate the value created by a pilot program and its risk-management benefits when the pilot provides perfect information or unreliable guidance on the future outcomes of the full-scale project. To demonstrate the use of these models, we use the hypothetical case of a mining company implementing a cost-saving technology. The results show that pilot projects can add value over a wide range of technical success probabilities and reduce the capital risk of innovation projects by fifty percent under some conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Samis, Michael & Steen, John, 2020. "Financial evaluation of mining innovation pilot projects and the value of information," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:69:y:2020:i:c:s0301420720308795
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2020.101848
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301420720308795
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.resourpol.2020.101848?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eduardo S. Schwartz, 2004. "Patents and R&D as Real Options," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 33(1), pages 23-54, February.
    2. Savolainen, Jyrki, 2016. "Real options in metal mining project valuation: Review of literature," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 49-65.
    3. Henckens, M.L.C.M. & van Ierland, E.C. & Driessen, P.P.J. & Worrell, E., 2016. "Mineral resources: Geological scarcity, market price trends, and future generations," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 102-111.
    4. Bent Flyvbjerg, 2014. "What You Should Know About Megaprojects, and Why: An Overview," Papers 1409.0003, arXiv.org.
    5. Hellsmark, Hans & Frishammar, Johan & Söderholm, Patrik & Ylinenpää, Håkan, 2016. "The role of pilot and demonstration plants in technology development and innovation policy," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(9), pages 1743-1761.
    6. Arnd Huchzermeier & Christoph H. Loch, 2001. "Project Management Under Risk: Using the Real Options Approach to Evaluate Flexibility in R...D," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(1), pages 85-101, January.
    7. Radetzki, Marian & Eggert, Roderick G. & Lagos, Gustavo & Lima, Marcos & Tilton, John E., 2008. "The boom in mineral markets: How long might it last?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 125-128, September.
    8. Paul D. Childs & Alexander J. Triantis, 1999. "Dynamic R&D Investment Policies," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 45(10), pages 1359-1377, October.
    9. Crowson, P., 2001. "Mining industry profitability?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 33-42, March.
    10. Nalin Kulatilaka & Enrico C. Perotti, 1998. "Strategic Growth Options," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(8), pages 1021-1031, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jin-Biao Lu & Zhi-Jiang Liu & Dmitry Tulenty & Liudmila Tsvetkova & Sebastian Kot, 2021. "Implementation of Stochastic Analysis in Corporate Decision-Making Models," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-16, May.
    2. Cox, Benjamin & Innis, Sally & Mortaza, Adnan & Kunz, Nadja C. & Steen, John, 2022. "A unified metric for costing tailings dams and the consequences for tailings management," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Meng, Rujing, 2008. "A patent race in a real options setting: Investment strategy, valuation, CAPM beta, and return volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 3192-3217, October.
    2. Deeney, Peter & Cummins, Mark & Heintz, Katharina & Pryce, Mary T., 2021. "A real options based decision support tool for R&D investment: Application to CO2 recycling technology," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 289(2), pages 696-711.
    3. Nagesh N. Murthy & Milind Shrikhande & Ajay Subramanian, 2007. "Switching costs, dynamic uncertainty, and buyer–seller relationships," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(8), pages 859-873, December.
    4. Gorupec Natalia & Tiberius Victor & Brehmer Nataliia & Kraus Sascha, 2022. "Tackling uncertain future scenarios with real options: A review and research framework," The Irish Journal of Management, Sciendo, vol. 41(1), pages 69-88, July.
    5. S H Martzoukos, 2009. "Real R&D options and optimal activation of two-dimensional random controls," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 60(6), pages 843-858, June.
    6. Wei-Fong Pan, 2019. "Geopolitical Risk and R&D investment," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2019-11, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    7. Kim, Bongsun & Kim, Eonsoo & Miller, Douglas J. & Mahoney, Joseph T., 2016. "The impact of the timing of patents on innovation performance," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(4), pages 914-928.
    8. Van den Broeke, Maud M. & Boute, Robert N. & Van Mieghem, Jan A., 2018. "Platform flexibility strategies: R&D investment versus production customization tradeoff," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 270(2), pages 475-486.
    9. Timo Willershausen & Sascha H. Mölls & Karl-Heinz Schild, 2007. "Unsicherheit und der Wert realer Optionen," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 59(3), pages 314-332, May.
    10. Koussis, Nicos & Martzoukos, Spiros H. & Trigeorgis, Lenos, 2013. "Multi-stage product development with exploration, value-enhancing, preemptive and innovation options," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 174-190.
    11. Naga Lakshmi Damaraju & Jay B. Barney & Anil K. Makhija, 2015. "Real options in divestment alternatives," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(5), pages 728-744, May.
    12. Yu, Zhen & Xiao, Yao & Li, Jinpo, 2021. "Firm-level perception of uncertainty and innovation activity: Textual evidence from China's A-share market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    13. Hoe, SingRu & David Diltz, J., 2012. "A real options approach to valuing and negotiating licensing agreements," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 322-332.
    14. Berg, Tobias & Mölls, Sascha H. & Willershausen, Timo, 2009. "(Real-)options, uncertainty and comparative statics: Are Black and Scholes mistaken?," Manuskripte aus den Instituten für Betriebswirtschaftslehre der Universität Kiel 645, Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel, Institut für Betriebswirtschaftslehre.
    15. Raffaele Oriani & Luigi Sereno, 2011. "Advanced Valuation Methods: The Real Options Approach," Chapters, in: Federico Munari & Raffaele Oriani (ed.), The Economic Valuation of Patents, chapter 6, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    16. Lei Zhu & ZhongXiang Zhang & Ying Fan, 2011. "An evaluation of overseas oil investment projects under uncertainty using a real options based simulation model," Economics Study Area Working Papers 121, East-West Center, Economics Study Area.
    17. Han T. J. Smit & Lenos Trigeorgis, 2017. "Strategic NPV: Real Options and Strategic Games under Different Information Structures," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(13), pages 2555-2578, December.
    18. Sascha Mölls & Karl-Heinz Schild, 2012. "Decision-making in sequential projects: expected time-to-build and probability of failure," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 1-25, July.
    19. Andrés, Pablo de & Fuente, Gabriel de la & Velasco, Pilar, 2021. "Exercising a firm’s growth options: A portfolio approach," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 571-585.
    20. Jiaquan Li & Yunbing Hou & Pengtao Wang & Bo Yang, 2018. "A Review of Carbon Capture and Storage Project Investment and Operational Decision-Making Based on Bibliometrics," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-22, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:69:y:2020:i:c:s0301420720308795. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30467 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.