The effect of fuel price fluctuations on utilitarian cycling rates: A survey of cyclists in Vietnam

In the first half of 2022, the global energy crisis led to a series of fuel price hikes in Vietnam. Consequently, the volume of cycling commuters grew as people switched from motorcycles to bicycles. Starting in early July, as fuel prices began to drop again, the cycling wave began to abate. This context presents a unique opportunity to qualitatively examine people's motivations for taking up and then abandoning the bicycle as a travel mode (as opposed to a recreational device). Through 16 in-depth interviews in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, we investigate the role of fuel prices in addition to other factors that are known to deter or encourage utilitarian and/or recreational cycling in other settings. The study reveals that, given low average wages, commuters are highly sensitive to increases or decreases in fuel prices, however small (i.e., ¢50/l), and adjust their modal choices accordingly. However, “stick” measures, such as fuel price increases, can only serve as a trigger. They need to be accompanied by “carrot” measures in the form of infrastructure upgrades and policy/legal changes if a city is to retain new cycling commuters in the long term.