IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/joreco/v31y2016icp174-181.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Demand forecasting based on natural computing approaches applied to the foodstuff retail segment

Author

Listed:
  • Veiga, Claudimar Pereira da
  • Veiga, Cássia Rita Pereira da
  • Puchalski, Weslly
  • Coelho, Leandro dos Santos
  • Tortato, Ubiratã

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to compare the accuracy of demand forecasting between two classical linear forecasting models (Autoregressive and Integrated Moving Average -ARIMA and Holt-Winter) and two nonlinear forecasting models based on natural computing approaches (Wavelets Neural Networks - WNN and Takagi-Sugeno Fuzzy System - TS), all applied to the aggregated retail sales of three groups of perishable food products from 2005 to 2013. Moreover, this paper evaluates the impact of demand forecasting accuracy on the demand satisfaction rate and on the overall economic performance of retail business operations. The most accurate model, WNN, had a demand satisfaction rate of 98.27% for Group A, 98.83% for Group B and 98.80% for Group C. WNN estimated a loss of revenue of R$1329.14 million/year with a minimum loss of 166 tons/year, which means that the results of WNN are 37.67% more efficient than the TS, 57.49% higher than the ARIMA and 76.79% higher than HW. This paper presents three main contributions: (i) it examines a question not evaluated in the literature on demand forecasting based on natural computing approaches in the foodstuff retail segment that generates better practical results, (ii) it proposes that a single forecasting model could be applied to different product groups and serves the organization as a whole with a good relationship between the cost and the benefit of the process and (iii) like previous studies, it proves that demand forecasting plays an important role and can generate a competitive advantage for the organization to be incorporated into its strategy.

Suggested Citation

  • Veiga, Claudimar Pereira da & Veiga, Cássia Rita Pereira da & Puchalski, Weslly & Coelho, Leandro dos Santos & Tortato, Ubiratã, 2016. "Demand forecasting based on natural computing approaches applied to the foodstuff retail segment," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 174-181.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:joreco:v:31:y:2016:i:c:p:174-181
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jretconser.2016.03.008
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0969698916301254
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jretconser.2016.03.008?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter R. Winters, 1960. "Forecasting Sales by Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 6(3), pages 324-342, April.
    2. Yokuma, J. Thomas & Armstrong, J. Scott, 1995. "Beyond accuracy: Comparison of criteria used to select forecasting methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 591-597, December.
    3. Chu, Ching-Wu & Zhang, Guoqiang Peter, 2003. "A comparative study of linear and nonlinear models for aggregate retail sales forecasting," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 217-231, December.
    4. Petropoulos, Fotios & Makridakis, Spyros & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos, 2014. "‘Horses for Courses’ in demand forecasting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 237(1), pages 152-163.
    5. Holt, Charles C., 2004. "Forecasting seasonals and trends by exponentially weighted moving averages," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 5-10.
    6. Stank, Theodore P. & Daugherty, Patricia J., 1997. "The impact of operating environment on the formation of cooperative logistics relationships," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 53-65, March.
    7. Green, Kesten C. & Armstrong, J. Scott, 2015. "Simple versus complex forecasting: The evidence," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(8), pages 1678-1685.
    8. Schneider, Matthew J. & Gupta, Sachin, 2016. "Forecasting sales of new and existing products using consumer reviews: A random projections approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 243-256.
    9. Armstrong, J. Scott & Fildes, Robert, 2006. "Making progress in forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 433-441.
    10. Ma, Shaohui & Fildes, Robert & Huang, Tao, 2016. "Demand forecasting with high dimensional data: The case of SKU retail sales forecasting with intra- and inter-category promotional information," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(1), pages 245-257.
    11. Holt, Charles C., 2004. "Author's retrospective on 'Forecasting seasonals and trends by exponentially weighted moving averages'," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 11-13.
    12. Disney, Stephen M. & Gaalman, Gerard J.C. & Hedenstierna, Carl Philip T. & Hosoda, Takamichi, 2015. "Fill rate in a periodic review order-up-to policy under auto-correlated normally distributed, possibly negative, demand," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(PB), pages 501-512.
    13. Matthew J. Sobel, 2004. "Fill Rates of Single-Stage and Multistage Supply Systems," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 6(1), pages 41-52, June.
    14. Kerkkänen, Annastiina & Korpela, Jukka & Huiskonen, Janne, 2009. "Demand forecasting errors in industrial context: Measurement and impacts," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 43-48, March.
    15. Babai, Zied & Boylan, John E. & Kolassa, Stephan & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos, 2016. "Supply chain forecasting: Theory, practice, their gap and the futureAuthor-Name: Syntetos, Aris A," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 252(1), pages 1-26.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tian, Xin & Wang, Haoqing & E, Erjiang, 2021. "Forecasting intermittent demand for inventory management by retailers: A new approach," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    2. Wesley Marcos Almeida & Claudimar Pereira Veiga, 2023. "Does demand forecasting matter to retailing?," Journal of Marketing Analytics, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(2), pages 219-232, June.
    3. Fildes, Robert & Ma, Shaohui & Kolassa, Stephan, 2022. "Retail forecasting: Research and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1283-1318.
    4. Fildes, Robert & Ma, Shaohui & Kolassa, Stephan, 2019. "Retail forecasting: research and practice," MPRA Paper 89356, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Alceu Souza & Ariane Maria Machado de Oliveira & Dayla Karolina Fossile & Emmanuel Óguchi Ogu & Luciano Luiz Dalazen & Claudimar Pereira da Veiga, 2020. "Business Plan Analysis Using Multi-Index Methodology: Expectations of Return and Perceived Risks," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(1), pages 21582440199, January.
    6. Liu, Hsiu-Wen, 2024. "Mining spatial-temporal patterns from customer data to improve forecasting of customer flow across multiple sites," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    7. Icaro Romolo Sousa Agostino & Wesley Vieira da Silva & Claudimar Pereira da Veiga & Adriano Mendonça Souza, 2020. "Forecasting models in the manufacturing processes and operations management: Systematic literature review," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(7), pages 1043-1056, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    2. Fildes, Robert & Ma, Shaohui & Kolassa, Stephan, 2022. "Retail forecasting: Research and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1283-1318.
    3. Fildes, Robert & Ma, Shaohui & Kolassa, Stephan, 2019. "Retail forecasting: research and practice," MPRA Paper 89356, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Tine Van Calster & Filip Van den Bossche & Bart Baesens & Wilfried Lemahieu, 2020. "Profit-oriented sales forecasting: a comparison of forecasting techniques from a business perspective," Papers 2002.00949, arXiv.org.
    5. Wesley Marcos Almeida & Claudimar Pereira Veiga, 2023. "Does demand forecasting matter to retailing?," Journal of Marketing Analytics, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(2), pages 219-232, June.
    6. Meira, Erick & Cyrino Oliveira, Fernando Luiz & de Menezes, Lilian M., 2022. "Forecasting natural gas consumption using Bagging and modified regularization techniques," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    7. Fieger, Peter & Rice, John, 2016. "Modelling Chinese Inbound Tourism Arrivals into Christchurch," MPRA Paper 75468, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Albrecht, Tobias & Rausch, Theresa Maria & Derra, Nicholas Daniel, 2021. "Call me maybe: Methods and practical implementation of artificial intelligence in call center arrivals’ forecasting," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 267-278.
    9. Kosuke Kawakami & Hirokazu Kobayashi & Kazuhide Nakata, 2021. "Seasonal Inventory Management Model for Raw Materials in Steel Industry," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 51(4), pages 312-324, July.
    10. Andrea Kolková & Petr Rozehnal, 2022. "Hybrid demand forecasting models: pre-pandemic and pandemic use studies," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 17(3), pages 699-725, September.
    11. Feng Xu & Mohamad Sepehri & Jian Hua & Sergey Ivanov & Julius N. Anyu, 2018. "Time-Series Forecasting Models for Gasoline Prices in China," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(12), pages 1-43, December.
    12. Theresa Maria Rausch & Tobias Albrecht & Daniel Baier, 2022. "Beyond the beaten paths of forecasting call center arrivals: on the use of dynamic harmonic regression with predictor variables," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 92(4), pages 675-706, May.
    13. Hill, Arthur V. & Zhang, Weiyong & Burch, Gerald F., 2015. "Forecasting the forecastability quotient for inventory management," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 651-663.
    14. Zhen Zeng & Rachneet Kaur & Suchetha Siddagangappa & Saba Rahimi & Tucker Balch & Manuela Veloso, 2023. "Financial Time Series Forecasting using CNN and Transformer," Papers 2304.04912, arXiv.org.
    15. Maia, André Luis Santiago & de Carvalho, Francisco de A.T., 2011. "Holt's exponential smoothing and neural network models for forecasting interval-valued time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 740-759, July.
    16. Wang, Zheng-Xin & Wang, Zhi-Wei & Li, Qin, 2020. "Forecasting the industrial solar energy consumption using a novel seasonal GM(1,1) model with dynamic seasonal adjustment factors," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    17. Isra Al-Turaiki & Fahad Almutlaq & Hend Alrasheed & Norah Alballa, 2021. "Empirical Evaluation of Alternative Time-Series Models for COVID-19 Forecasting in Saudi Arabia," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(16), pages 1-19, August.
    18. Marvin Carl May & Alexander Albers & Marc David Fischer & Florian Mayerhofer & Louis Schäfer & Gisela Lanza, 2021. "Queue Length Forecasting in Complex Manufacturing Job Shops," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-17, May.
    19. Paris A. Mastorocostas & Constantinos S. Hilas & Dimitris N. Varsamis & Stergiani C. Dova, 2016. "Telecommunications call volume forecasting with a block-diagonal recurrent fuzzy neural network," Telecommunication Systems: Modelling, Analysis, Design and Management, Springer, vol. 63(1), pages 15-25, September.
    20. Sabaj, Ernil & Kahveci, Mustafa, 2018. "Forecasting tax revenues in an emerging economy: The case of Albania," MPRA Paper 84404, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:joreco:v:31:y:2016:i:c:p:174-181. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/journal-of-retailing-and-consumer-services .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.