IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jomega/v49y2014icp18-29.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

IMP: A decision aid for multiattribute evaluation using imprecise weight estimates

Author

Listed:
  • Jessop, Alan

Abstract

In multicriteria analysis, weights are inferred from judgements. Judgements are subject to uncertainty and the weights found depend on the method used so that weights must necessarily be imprecise. Describing weights by a suitable probability distribution captures this imprecision and leads to correspondingly imprecise estimates of the multiattribute scores given to alternatives. A method is described which enables the parameters of a Dirichlet distribution to be found from three point weight estimates and for this to be used to determine whether or not alternatives may justifiably be differentiated by their scores. A simple chart shows this information and permits easy interaction. An illustration shows the effects of different sources of imprecision and of aggregating individual assessments in a group.

Suggested Citation

  • Jessop, Alan, 2014. "IMP: A decision aid for multiattribute evaluation using imprecise weight estimates," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 18-29.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jomega:v:49:y:2014:i:c:p:18-29
    DOI: 10.1016/j.omega.2014.05.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030504831400053X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.omega.2014.05.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pang, Jifang & Liang, Jiye, 2012. "Evaluation of the results of multi-attribute group decision-making with linguistic information," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 294-301.
    2. Lahdelma, Risto & Miettinen, Kaisa & Salminen, Pekka, 2003. "Ordinal criteria in stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA)," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 117-127, May.
    3. Wang, Jue & Xu, Wei & Ma, Jian & Wang, Shouyang, 2013. "A vague set based decision support approach for evaluating research funding programs," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 230(3), pages 656-665.
    4. Shirland, Larry E. & Jesse, Richard R. & Thompson, Ronald L. & Iacovou, Charalambos L., 2003. "Determining attribute weights using mathematical programming," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 423-437, December.
    5. Pilar Gargallo & José María Moreno-Jiménez & Manuel Salvador, 2007. "AHP-Group Decision Making: A Bayesian Approach Based on Mixtures for Group Pattern Identification," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 16(6), pages 485-506, November.
    6. Ramanathan, Ramakrishnan & Ramanathan, Usha, 2010. "A qualitative perspective to deriving weights from pairwise comparison matrices," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 228-232, June.
    7. Hogarth, Robin M. (ed.), 1990. "Insights in Decision Making," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226348551, October.
    8. Jiménez, Antonio & Mateos, Alfonso & Ríos-Insua, Sixto, 2009. "Missing consequences in multiattribute utility theory," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 395-410, April.
    9. Morera, Osvaldo F. & Budescu, David V., 1998. "A Psychometric Analysis of the "Divide and Conquer" Principle in Multicriteria Decision Making," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 187-206, September.
    10. Donald L. Keefer & William A. Verdini, 1993. "Better Estimation of PERT Activity Time Parameters," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 39(9), pages 1086-1091, September.
    11. Weber, Martin & Borcherding, Katrin, 1993. "Behavioral influences on weight judgments in multiattribute decision making," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 1-12, May.
    12. Lahdelma, Risto & Hokkanen, Joonas & Salminen, Pekka, 1998. "SMAA - Stochastic multiobjective acceptability analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 137-143, April.
    13. Costa, Joao P. & Melo, Paulo & Godinho, Pedro & Dias, Luis C., 2003. "The AGAP system: A GDSS for project analysis and evaluation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 287-303, March.
    14. Bottomley, Paul A. & Doyle, John R., 2001. "A comparison of three weight elicitation methods: good, better, and best," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 553-560, December.
    15. Risto Lahdelma & Pekka Salminen, 2001. "SMAA-2: Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis for Group Decision Making," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 49(3), pages 444-454, June.
    16. Robert L. Winkler & Robert T. Clemen, 2004. "Multiple Experts vs. Multiple Methods: Combining Correlation Assessments," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 1(3), pages 167-176, September.
    17. Joseph J. Moder & E. G. Rodgers, 1968. "Judgment Estimates of the Moments of Pert Type Distributions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(2), pages 76-83, October.
    18. Durbach, Ian N. & Stewart, Theodor J., 2011. "An experimental study of the effect of uncertainty representation on decision making," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 214(2), pages 380-392, October.
    19. Antonio Jiménez & Alfonso Mateos & Sixto Ríos-Insua, 2005. "Monte Carlo Simulation Techniques in a Decision Support System for Group Decision Making," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 109-130, March.
    20. Barcus, Ana & Montibeller, Gilberto, 2008. "Supporting the allocation of software development work in distributed teams with multi-criteria decision analysis," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 464-475, June.
    21. Utpal Bose & David B. Paradice, 1999. "The Effects of Integrating Cognitive Feedback and Multi-attribute Utility-Based Multicriteria Decision-Making Methods in GDSS," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 157-182, March.
    22. Chen, Ye & Marc Kilgour, D. & Hipel, Keith W., 2008. "A case-based distance method for screening in multiple-criteria decision aid," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 373-383, June.
    23. Basak, Indrani, 1998. "Probabilistic judgments specified partially in the analytic hierarchy process," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 153-164, July.
    24. Hauser, David & Tadikamalla, Pandu, 1996. "The Analytic Hierarchy Process in an uncertain environment: A simulation approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 27-37, May.
    25. Fernandez, Eduardo & Navarro, Jorge & Bernal, Sergio, 2010. "Handling multicriteria preferences in cluster analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 202(3), pages 819-827, May.
    26. R Bañuelas & J Antony, 2007. "Application of stochastic analytic hierarchy process within a domestic appliance manufacturer," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 58(1), pages 29-38, January.
    27. Durbach, Ian N. & Stewart, Theodor J., 2012. "A comparison of simplified value function approaches for treating uncertainty in multi-criteria decision analysis," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 456-464.
    28. Escobar, M. T. & Moreno-Jimenez, J. M., 2000. "Reciprocal distributions in the analytic hierarchy process," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 154-174, May.
    29. Lahdelma, Risto & Makkonen, Simo & Salminen, Pekka, 2009. "Two ways to handle dependent uncertainties in multi-criteria decision problems," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 79-92, February.
    30. Kreye, M.E. & Goh, Y.M. & Newnes, L.B. & Goodwin, P., 2012. "Approaches to displaying information to assist decisions under uncertainty," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 682-692.
    31. Salo, Ahti A. & Hamalainen, Raimo P., 1995. "Preference programming through approximate ratio comparisons," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 82(3), pages 458-475, May.
    32. Dias, Luis C. & Climaco, Joao N., 2005. "Dealing with imprecise information in group multicriteria decisions: a methodology and a GDSS architecture," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 160(2), pages 291-307, January.
    33. Juha M. Alho & Jyrki Kangas & Osmo Kolehmainen, 1996. "Uncertainty in Expert Predictions of the Ecological Consequences of Forest Plans," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 45(1), pages 1-14, March.
    34. A Jessop, 2011. "Using imprecise estimates for weights," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1048-1055, June.
    35. Jason R. W. Merrick, 2008. "Getting the Right Mix of Experts," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 5(1), pages 43-52, March.
    36. Levary, Reuven R. & Wan, Ke, 1998. "A simulation approach for handling uncertainty in the analytic hierarchy process," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 116-122, April.
    37. Butler, John & Jia, Jianmin & Dyer, James, 1997. "Simulation techniques for the sensitivity analysis of multi-criteria decision models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 103(3), pages 531-546, December.
    38. Erev, Ido & Cohen, Brent L., 1990. "Verbal versus numerical probabilities: Efficiency, biases, and the preference paradox," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 1-18, February.
    39. Bottomley, Paul A. & Doyle, John R., 2013. "Comparing the validity of numerical judgements elicited by direct rating and point allocation: Insights from objectively verifiable perceptual tasks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 228(1), pages 148-157.
    40. F. Hutton Barron & Bruce E. Barrett, 1996. "Decision Quality Using Ranked Attribute Weights," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 42(11), pages 1515-1523, November.
    41. Petru Lucian Curşeu & Sandra Schruijer, 2008. "The Effects of Framing on Inter-group Negotiation," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 347-362, July.
    42. Kim, Deok-Hwan & Kim, Kwang-Jae & Sam Park, K., 2010. "Compromising prioritization from pairwise comparisons considering type I and II errors," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 204(2), pages 285-293, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. McKenna, R. & Bertsch, V. & Mainzer, K. & Fichtner, W., 2018. "Combining local preferences with multi-criteria decision analysis and linear optimization to develop feasible energy concepts in small communities," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 268(3), pages 1092-1110.
    2. Shuli Liu & Xinwang Liu, 2016. "A Sample Survey Based Linguistic MADM Method with Prospect Theory for Online Shopping Problems," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 749-774, July.
    3. Wulf, David & Bertsch, Valentin, 2016. "A natural language generation approach to support understanding and traceability of multi-dimensional preferential sensitivity analysis in multi-criteria decision making," MPRA Paper 75025, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Misbah Anjum & Vernika Agarwal & P. K. Kapur & Sunil Kumar Khatri, 2020. "Two-phase methodology for prioritization and utility assessment of software vulnerabilities," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 11(2), pages 289-300, July.
    5. Rezaei, Jafar, 2015. "Best-worst multi-criteria decision-making method," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 49-57.
    6. Franceschini, Fiorenzo & Maisano, Domenico, 2015. "Checking the consistency of the solution in ordinal semi-democratic decision-making problems," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 57(PB), pages 188-195.
    7. Ahn, Byeong Seok, 2017. "Approximate weighting method for multiattribute decision problems with imprecise parameters," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 87-95.
    8. Zhang, Juliang & Xiang, Jie & Cheng, T.C. Edwin & Hua, Guowei & Chen, Cheng, 2019. "An optimal efficient multi-attribute auction for transportation procurement with carriers having multi-unit supplies," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 249-260.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. A Jessop, 2011. "Using imprecise estimates for weights," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1048-1055, June.
    2. Durbach, Ian & Lahdelma, Risto & Salminen, Pekka, 2014. "The analytic hierarchy process with stochastic judgements," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 238(2), pages 552-559.
    3. Jiménez, Antonio & Mateos, Alfonso & Sabio, Pilar, 2013. "Dominance intensity measure within fuzzy weight oriented MAUT: An application," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 397-405.
    4. Ian Durbach, 2019. "Scenario planning in the analytic hierarchy process," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 1(2), June.
    5. Scholten, Lisa & Schuwirth, Nele & Reichert, Peter & Lienert, Judit, 2015. "Tackling uncertainty in multi-criteria decision analysis – An application to water supply infrastructure planning," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 242(1), pages 243-260.
    6. Fan, Zhi-Ping & Liu, Yang & Feng, Bo, 2010. "A method for stochastic multiple criteria decision making based on pairwise comparisons of alternatives with random evaluations," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 207(2), pages 906-915, December.
    7. Menou, Abdellah & Benallou, Abdelhanine & Lahdelma, Risto & Salminen, Pekka, 2010. "Decision support for centralizing cargo at a Moroccan airport hub using stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 204(3), pages 621-629, August.
    8. Zhu, Bin & Xu, Zeshui, 2014. "Stochastic preference analysis in numerical preference relations," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 237(2), pages 628-633.
    9. R. Pelissari & M. C. Oliveira & S. Ben Amor & A. Kandakoglu & A. L. Helleno, 2020. "SMAA methods and their applications: a literature review and future research directions," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 293(2), pages 433-493, October.
    10. Wulf, David & Bertsch, Valentin, 2016. "A natural language generation approach to support understanding and traceability of multi-dimensional preferential sensitivity analysis in multi-criteria decision making," MPRA Paper 75025, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Antonio Jiménez-Martín & Eduardo Gallego & Alfonso Mateos & Juan A. Fernández Pozo, 2017. "Restoring a Radionuclide Contaminated Aquatic Ecosystem: A Group Decision Making Problem with Incomplete Information within MAUT Accounting for Veto," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 653-675, July.
    12. Lahdelma, Risto & Salminen, Pekka, 2009. "Prospect theory and stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA)," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 961-971, October.
    13. Paula Sarabando & Luís C. Dias & Rudolf Vetschera, 2013. "Mediation with Incomplete Information: Approaches to Suggest Potential Agreements," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 561-597, May.
    14. Song, Lianlian & Fu, Yelin & Zhou, Peng & Lai, Kin Keung, 2017. "Measuring national energy performance via Energy Trilemma Index: A Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 313-319.
    15. McKenna, R. & Bertsch, V. & Mainzer, K. & Fichtner, W., 2018. "Combining local preferences with multi-criteria decision analysis and linear optimization to develop feasible energy concepts in small communities," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 268(3), pages 1092-1110.
    16. Lahdelma, Risto & Miettinen, Kaisa & Salminen, Pekka, 2005. "Reference point approach for multiple decision makers," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 164(3), pages 785-791, August.
    17. Valentin Bertsch & Wolf Fichtner, 2016. "A participatory multi-criteria approach for power generation and transmission planning," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 245(1), pages 177-207, October.
    18. Ram, Camelia, 2020. "Scenario presentation and scenario generation in multi-criteria assessments: An exploratory study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    19. Jiménez, Antonio & Mateos, Alfonso & Ríos-Insua, Sixto, 2009. "Missing consequences in multiattribute utility theory," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 395-410, April.
    20. Hovanov, Nikolai & Yudaeva, Maria & Hovanov, Kirill, 2009. "Multicriteria estimation of probabilities on basis of expert non-numeric, non-exact and non-complete knowledge," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 195(3), pages 857-863, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jomega:v:49:y:2014:i:c:p:18-29. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/375/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.