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Uncertainty in Expert Predictions of the Ecological Consequences of Forest Plans

Author

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  • Juha M. Alho
  • Jyrki Kangas
  • Osmo Kolehmainen

Abstract

This paper examines the consistency between expert predictions concerning the ecological effects of forest plans. Maximizing economic yield is no longer the single overriding goal of forestry; landscape and recreational values must also be considered. to optimize the choice of forest plan the various objectives must be made commensurable. The analytical hierarchy process provides one approach to the problem, but usually without a statistical assessment of the uncertainty of the results. An alternative approach using variance components modelling, which provides quantitative estimates of the uncertainties, is derived. The methods are compared by using a case‐study in which several experts were asked to predict how different forest plans influence the forest as a habitat of black grouse, a valued game‐bird. Although complex computer simulations were carried out to aid the experts in their task, there is considerable variation in the views of the various experts, and also considerable internal inconsistencies in individual views. The quantitative estimates of the uncertainties suggest that the results of the expert elicitation must be used with caution in the decision‐making process.

Suggested Citation

  • Juha M. Alho & Jyrki Kangas & Osmo Kolehmainen, 1996. "Uncertainty in Expert Predictions of the Ecological Consequences of Forest Plans," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 45(1), pages 1-14, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssc:v:45:y:1996:i:1:p:1-14
    DOI: 10.2307/2986218
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mikkila, Mirja & Kolehmainen, Osmo & Pukkala, Timo, 2005. "Multi-attribute assessment of acceptability of operations in the pulp and paper industries," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 227-243, February.
    2. Kangas, Annika S. & Kangas, Jyrki, 2004. "Probability, possibility and evidence: approaches to consider risk and uncertainty in forestry decision analysis," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 169-188, March.
    3. Mikhailov, L., 2004. "A fuzzy approach to deriving priorities from interval pairwise comparison judgements," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 159(3), pages 687-704, December.
    4. T Kainulainen & P Leskinen & P Korhonen & A Haara & T Hujala, 2009. "A statistical approach to assessing interval scale preferences in discrete choice problems," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 60(2), pages 252-258, February.
    5. Jessop, Alan, 2014. "IMP: A decision aid for multiattribute evaluation using imprecise weight estimates," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 18-29.
    6. Kajanus, Miika & Leskinen, Pekka & Kurttila, Mikko & Kangas, Jyrki, 2012. "Making use of MCDS methods in SWOT analysis—Lessons learnt in strategic natural resources management," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 1-9.
    7. Kurttila, Mikko & Pesonen, Mauno & Kangas, Jyrki & Kajanus, Miika, 2000. "Utilizing the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) in SWOT analysis -- a hybrid method and its application to a forest-certification case," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 41-52, May.
    8. P Leskinen & J Kangas, 2005. "Rank reversals in multi-criteria decision analysis with statistical modelling of ratio-scale pairwise comparisons," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 56(7), pages 855-861, July.
    9. Sugimura, Ken & Howard, Theodore E., 2008. "Incorporating social factors to improve the Japanese forest zoning process," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 161-173, January.
    10. Ananda, Jayanath & Herath, Gamini, 2009. "A critical review of multi-criteria decision making methods with special reference to forest management and planning," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(10), pages 2535-2548, August.
    11. Kijazi, Martin Herbert & Kant, Shashi, 2011. "Social acceptability of alternative forest regimes in Mount Kilimanjaro, Tanzania, using stakeholder attitudes as metrics of uncertainty," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 242-257, April.
    12. Altuzarra, Alfredo & Moreno-Jimenez, Jose Maria & Salvador, Manuel, 2007. "A Bayesian priorization procedure for AHP-group decision making," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 367-382, October.
    13. Laininen, Pertti & Hamalainen, Raimo P., 2003. "Analyzing AHP-matrices by regression," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 148(3), pages 514-524, August.
    14. Pilar Gargallo & José María Moreno-Jiménez & Manuel Salvador, 2007. "AHP-Group Decision Making: A Bayesian Approach Based on Mixtures for Group Pattern Identification," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 16(6), pages 485-506, November.
    15. Kangas, Annika S. & Kangas, Jyrki & Lahdelma, Risto & Salminen, Pekka, 2006. "Using SMAA-2 method with dependent uncertainties for strategic forest planning," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 113-125, November.
    16. Leskinen, Pekka & Kangas, Annika S. & Kangas, Jyrki, 2004. "Rank-based modelling of preferences in multi-criteria decision making," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 158(3), pages 721-733, November.

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