The roles of planning, learning, and mental models in repeated dynamic decision making

Repeated search and decision making is a common consumer activity that should benefit from advanced planning. In three simulated shopping experiments, we find that people often fail to plan spontaneously or, when they do plan, do not use an appropriate mental model of the search problem. We also manipulate the mental models used by subjects and find that while our manipulation successfully encourages the development of appropriate mental models and improves performance when search costs are low, it does not result in the type of sophisticated mental model required to change strategies based on increased search costs. Finally, we show that the benefits of planning generalize to real world shopping behavior in a field experiment.