IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ormnsc/v31y1985i4p395-414.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Effort and Accuracy in Choice

Author

Listed:
  • Eric J. Johnson

    (Graduate School of Industrial Administration, Carnegie-Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15213)

  • John W. Payne

    (Fuqua School of Business, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27706)

Abstract

Individuals often use several different strategies such as the expected value rule, conjunctive rule, and elimination-by-aspects, to make decisions. It has been hypothesized that strategy selection is, in part, a function of (1) the ability of a strategy to produce an accurate response and (2) the strategy's demand for mental resources or effort. We examine effort and accuracy and their role in strategy selection. Several strategies that may be used to make choices under risk are simulated using a production system framework. This framework allows the estimation of the effort required to use the strategy in a choice environment, while simultaneously measuring its accuracy relative to a normative model. A series of Monte-Carlo studies varied several aspects of the choice environments, including the complexity of the task and the presence or absence of dominated alternatives. These simulations identify strategies which approximate the accuracy of normative procedures while requiring substantially less effort. These results, however, are highly contingent upon characteristics of the task environment. The potential of production system models in understanding task effects in decisions is stressed.

Suggested Citation

  • Eric J. Johnson & John W. Payne, 1985. "Effort and Accuracy in Choice," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(4), pages 395-414, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:31:y:1985:i:4:p:395-414
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.31.4.395
    Download Restriction: no

    More about this item

    Keywords

    decision making; simulation; heuristics;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:31:y:1985:i:4:p:395-414. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mirko Janc). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.