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Analysis of the intraday effects of economic releases on the currency market

  • Sun, Edward W.
  • Rezania, Omid
  • Rachev, Svetlozar T.
  • Fabozzi, Frank J.

Using four years of second-by-second executed trade data, we study the intraday effects of a representative group of scheduled economic releases on three exchange rates: EUR/USD, JPY/USD, and GBP/USD. Using wavelets to analyze volatility behavior, we empirically show that intraday volatility clusters increase as we approach the time of the releases, and decay exponentially after the releases. Moreover, we compare our results with the results of a poll that we conducted of economists and traders. Finally, we propose a wavelet volatility estimator which is not only more efficient than a range estimator that is commonly used in empirical studies, but also captures the market dynamics as accurately as a range estimator. Our approach has practical value in high-frequency algorithmic trading, as well as electronic market making.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

Volume (Year): 30 (2011)
Issue (Month): 4 (June)
Pages: 692-707

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:30:y:2011:i:4:p:692-707
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

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  1. Kathryn M. E. Dominguez & Freyan Panthaki, 2007. "The Influence of Actual and Unrequited Interventions," Working Papers 561, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  2. BAUWENS, Luc & BEN OMRANE, Walid & GIOT, Pierre, 2003. "News announcements, market activity and volatility in the Euro/Dollar foreign exchange market," CORE Discussion Papers 2003029, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  3. Ramsey, J.B., 2002. "Wavelets in Economics and Finance: Past and Future," Working Papers 02-02, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  4. Jessica James & Kristjan Kasikov, 2008. "Impact of economic data surprises on exchange rates in the inter-dealer market," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 5-15.
  5. Ramsey James B., 2002. "Wavelets in Economics and Finance: Past and Future," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(3), pages 1-29, November.
  6. Jonathan Kearns & Phil Manners, 2005. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on the Exchange Rate: A Study Using Intraday Data," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2005-02, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  7. Hali J. Edison, 1996. "The reaction of exchange rates and interest rates to news releases," International Finance Discussion Papers 570, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Parkinson, Michael, 1980. "The Extreme Value Method for Estimating the Variance of the Rate of Return," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 61-65, January.
  9. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
  10. Gencay, Ramazan & Selcuk, Faruk & Whitcher, Brandon, 2005. "Multiscale systematic risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 55-70, February.
  11. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Elton, Edwin J. & Green, T. Clifton, 2001. "Economic News and Bond Prices: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(04), pages 523-543, December.
  12. Joel Hasbrouck, 1998. "Security Bid/Ask Dynamics with Discreteness and Clustering: Simple Strategies for Modeling and Estimation," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 98-042, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
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