IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jfinec/v169y2025ics0304405x2500025x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

LTCM Redux? Hedge fund Treasury trading, funding fragility, and risk constraints

Author

Listed:
  • Kruttli, Mathias S.
  • Monin, Phillip J.
  • Petrasek, Lubomir
  • Watugala, Sumudu W.

Abstract

We exploit the 2020 Treasury market shock to analyze how external and internal constraints impact arbitrageurs. Using regulatory filings, we find that hedge funds reduced arbitrage activities and increased cash holdings, despite stable credit and low contemporaneous redemptions. Creditors’ regulatory and liquidity constraints were not propagated to hedge funds through repo—Treasury arbitrageurs’ predominant financing source. Fund-creditor borrowing data reveal more regulated dealers provided, and more important clients received, disproportionately higher funding. Value-at-risk reported by funds suggests internal risk constraints were binding. Our results support theoretical predictions that arbitrageur risk constraints and precautionary liquidity management can amplify market instability even when contemporaneous financing remains resilient.

Suggested Citation

  • Kruttli, Mathias S. & Monin, Phillip J. & Petrasek, Lubomir & Watugala, Sumudu W., 2025. "LTCM Redux? Hedge fund Treasury trading, funding fragility, and risk constraints," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:169:y:2025:i:c:s0304405x2500025x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104017
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304405X2500025X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104017?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mitchell, Mark & Pulvino, Todd, 2012. "Arbitrage crashes and the speed of capital," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 469-490.
    2. Khandani, Amir E. & Lo, Andrew W., 2011. "What happened to the quants in August 2007? Evidence from factors and transactions data," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 1-46, February.
    3. Choi, Jaewon & Hoseinzade, Saeid & Shin, Sean Seunghun & Tehranian, Hassan, 2020. "Corporate bond mutual funds and asset fire sales," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(2), pages 432-457.
    4. Andrew W. Lo, 2001. "Risk Management for Hedge Funds: Introduction and Overview," Financial Analysts Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(6), pages 16-33, November.
    5. Nina Boyarchenko & Thomas M. Eisenbach & Pooja Gupta & Or Shachar & Peter Van Tassel, 2018. "Bank-Intermediated Arbitrage," Liberty Street Economics 20181018, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    6. Darrell Duffie, 2018. "Financial Regulatory Reform After the Crisis: An Assessment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(10), pages 4835-4857, October.
    7. Viktoria Baklanova & Adam Copeland & Rebecca McCaughrin, 2015. "Reference Guide to U.S. Repo and Securities Lending Markets," Working Papers 15-17, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    8. Gromb, Denis & Vayanos, Dimitri, 2002. "Equilibrium and welfare in markets with financially constrained arbitrageurs," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 361-407.
    9. He, Zhiguo & Nagel, Stefan & Song, Zhaogang, 2022. "Treasury inconvenience yields during the COVID-19 crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 57-79.
    10. Andrei Shleifer & Robert Vishny, 2011. "Fire Sales in Finance and Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 25(1), pages 29-48, Winter.
    11. Zhiguo He & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2013. "Intermediary Asset Pricing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(2), pages 732-770, April.
    12. Mathias S. Kruttli & Andrew J. Patton & Tarun Ramadorai, 2015. "The Impact of Hedge Funds on Asset Markets," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 185-226.
    13. Agarwal, Vikas & Aragon, George O. & Shi, Zhen, 2019. "Liquidity Transformation and Financial Fragility: Evidence from Funds of Hedge Funds," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 54(6), pages 2355-2381, December.
    14. Efe Çötelioğlu & Francesco Franzoni & Alberto Plazzi, 2021. "What Constrains Liquidity Provision? Evidence from Institutional Trades [Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 485-517.
    15. Grace Xing Hu & Jun Pan & Jiang Wang, 2013. "Noise as Information for Illiquidity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(6), pages 2341-2382, December.
    16. Asim Ijaz Khwaja & Atif Mian, 2008. "Tracing the Impact of Bank Liquidity Shocks: Evidence from an Emerging Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1413-1442, September.
    17. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2009. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2201-2238, June.
    18. Tobias Adrian & Hyun Song Shin, 2014. "Procyclical Leverage and Value-at-Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(2), pages 373-403.
    19. Jonathan B. Berk & Richard C. Green, 2004. "Mutual Fund Flows and Performance in Rational Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(6), pages 1269-1295, December.
    20. Kruttli, Mathias S. & Monin, Phillip J. & Watugala, Sumudu W., 2022. "The life of the counterparty: Shock propagation in hedge fund-prime broker credit networks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 965-988.
    21. Viral V Acharya & Robert Engle & Maximilian Jager & Sascha Steffen, 2024. "Why Did Bank Stocks Crash during COVID-19?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 37(9), pages 2627-2684.
    22. Gorton, Gary & Metrick, Andrew, 2012. "Securitized banking and the run on repo," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 425-451.
    23. Andreas Schrimpf & Hyun Song Shin & Vladyslav Sushko, 2020. "Leverage and margin spirals in fixed income markets during the Covid-19 crisis," BIS Bulletins 2, Bank for International Settlements.
    24. Agarwal, Vikas & Green, T. Clifton & Ren, Honglin, 2018. "Alpha or beta in the eye of the beholder: What drives hedge fund flows?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(3), pages 417-434.
    25. Franklin R. Edward, 1999. "Hedge Funds and the Collapse of Long-Term Capital Management," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 189-210, Spring.
    26. Hombert, Johan & Thesmar, David, 2014. "Overcoming limits of arbitrage: Theory and evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(1), pages 26-44.
    27. Ang, Andrew & Gorovyy, Sergiy & van Inwegen, Gregory B., 2011. "Hedge fund leverage," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(1), pages 102-126, October.
    28. Samuel J. Hempel & R. Jay Kahn & Robert Mann & Mark Paddrik, 2023. "Why Is So Much Repo Not Centrally Cleared?," The OFR Blog 23-11, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    29. Yiming Ma & Kairong Xiao & Yao Zeng, 2022. "Mutual Fund Liquidity Transformation and Reverse Flight to Liquidity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(10), pages 4674-4711.
    30. Acharya, Viral V. & Lochstoer, Lars A. & Ramadorai, Tarun, 2013. "Limits to arbitrage and hedging: Evidence from commodity markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 441-465.
    31. Daniel Barth & R. Jay Kahn, 2021. "Hedge Funds and the Treasury Cash-Futures Disconnect," Working Papers 21-01, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    32. Vissing-Jorgensen, Annette, 2021. "The Treasury Market in Spring 2020 and the Response of the Federal Reserve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 19-47.
    33. Petri Jylhä & Kalle Rinne & Matti Suominen, 2014. "Do Hedge Funds Supply or Demand Liquidity?," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(4), pages 1259-1298.
    34. Petersen, Mitchell A & Rajan, Raghuram G, 1994. "The Benefits of Lending Relationships: Evidence from Small Business Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(1), pages 3-37, March.
    35. William N. Goetzmann & Jonathan E. Ingersoll & Stephen A. Ross, 2003. "High‐Water Marks and Hedge Fund Management Contracts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(4), pages 1685-1718, August.
    36. Aragon, George O. & Strahan, Philip E., 2012. "Hedge funds as liquidity providers: Evidence from the Lehman bankruptcy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(3), pages 570-587.
    37. Jun Kyung Auh & Mattia Landoni, 2022. "Loan Terms and Collateral: Evidence from the Bilateral Repo Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(6), pages 2997-3036, December.
    38. Berger, Allen N & Udell, Gregory F, 1995. "Relationship Lending and Lines of Credit in Small Firm Finance," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(3), pages 351-381, July.
    39. Aragon, George O. & Martin, J. Spencer & Shi, Zhen, 2019. "Who benefits in a crisis? Evidence from hedge fund stock and option holdings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(2), pages 345-361.
    40. Bao, Jack & O’Hara, Maureen & (Alex) Zhou, Xing, 2018. "The Volcker Rule and corporate bond market making in times of stress," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(1), pages 95-113.
    41. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1997. "The Limits of Arbitrage," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 35-55, March.
    42. Philippe Jorion, 2000. "Risk management lessons from Long‐Term Capital Management," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 6(3), pages 277-300, September.
    43. Gromb, Denis & Vayanos, Dimitri, 2003. "Corrigendum to "Equilibrium and welfare in markets with financially constrained arbitrageurs" [J. Financial Economics 66 (2002) 361]," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 531-531, March.
    44. Adrian, Tobias & Shin, Hyun Song, 2010. "Liquidity and leverage," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 418-437, July.
    45. Nicole M. Boyson & Christof W. Stahel & René M. Stulz, 2010. "Hedge Fund Contagion and Liquidity Shocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(5), pages 1789-1816, October.
    46. Lei Li & Yi Li & Marco Macchiavelli & Xing (Alex) Zhou, 2021. "Liquidity Restrictions, Runs, and Central Bank Interventions: Evidence from Money Market Funds [Dealer financial conditions and lender-of-last-resort facilities]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5402-5437.
    47. Nicolae Gârleanu & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2007. "Liquidity and Risk Management," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 193-197, May.
    48. Matthias Fleckenstein & Francis A. Longstaff & Hanno Lustig, 2014. "The TIPS-Treasury Bond Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(5), pages 2151-2197, October.
    49. Jefferson Duarte & Francis A. Longstaff & Fan Yu, 2007. "Risk and Return in Fixed-Income Arbitrage: Nickels in Front of a Steamroller?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(3), pages 769-811.
    50. Itzhak Ben-David & Francesco Franzoni & Rabih Moussawi, 2012. "Hedge Fund Stock Trading in the Financial Crisis of 2007--2009," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(1), pages 1-54.
    51. Gupta, Anurag & Liang, Bing, 2005. "Do hedge funds have enough capital? A value-at-risk approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 219-253, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dan Li & Lubomir Petrasek & Mary Tian, 2025. "Risk-averse Dealers in a Risk-free Market - The Role of Trading Desk Risk Limits," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2025-034, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mathias S. Kruttli & Phillip J. Monin & Lubomir Petrasek & Sumudu W. Watugala, 2021. "Hedge Fund Treasury Trading and Funding Fragility: Evidence from the COVID-19 Crisis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-038, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Jiakai Chen & Haoyang Liu & Asani Sarkar & Zhaogang Song, 2020. "Dealers and the Dealer of Last Resort: Evidence from the Agency MBS Markets in the COVID-19 Crisis," Staff Reports 933, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    3. Andrew W. Lo & Mila Getmansky & Peter A. Lee, 2015. "Hedge Funds: A Dynamic Industry in Transition," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 483-577, December.
    4. Nina Boyarchenko & Thomas M. Eisenbach & Pooja Gupta & Or Shachar & Peter Van Tassel, 2018. "Bank-intermediated arbitrage," Staff Reports 858, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    5. Kruttli, Mathias S. & Monin, Phillip J. & Watugala, Sumudu W., 2022. "The life of the counterparty: Shock propagation in hedge fund-prime broker credit networks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 965-988.
    6. Kolokolova, Olga & Lin, Ming-Tsung & Poon, Ser-Huang, 2020. "Too big to ignore? Hedge fund flows and bond yields," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    7. Amir Akbari & Francesca Carrieri & Aytek Malkhozov, 2017. "Reversals in Global Market Integration and Funding Liquidity," International Finance Discussion Papers 1202, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Sandro Lunghi & Daniel Schmidt & Bastian von Beschwitz, 2021. "Fundamental Arbitrage under the Microscope: Evidence from Detailed Hedge Fund Transaction Data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-022, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. He, Zhiguo & Kelly, Bryan & Manela, Asaf, 2017. "Intermediary asset pricing: New evidence from many asset classes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 1-35.
    10. Dan Li & Lubomir Petrasek & Mary Tian, 2025. "Risk-averse Dealers in a Risk-free Market - The Role of Trading Desk Risk Limits," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2025-034, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Huang, Wenqian & Ranaldo, Angelo & Schrimpf, Andreas & Somogyi, Fabricius, 2025. "Constrained liquidity provision in currency markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    12. Dan Li & Phillip J. Monin & Lubomir Petrasek, 2024. "Credit Supply and Hedge Fund Performance: Evidence from Prime Broker Surveys," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-089, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Cho, Thummim, 2020. "Turning alphas into betas: arbitrage and endogenous risk," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 102085, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    14. Cho, Thummim, 2020. "Turning alphas into betas: Arbitrage and endogenous risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(2), pages 550-570.
    15. Abbassi, Puriya & Iyer, Rajkamal & Peydró, José-Luis & Tous, Francesc R., 2016. "Securities trading by banks and credit supply: Micro-evidence from the crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(3), pages 569-594.
    16. Huang, Wenqian & Ranaldo, Angelo & Schrimpf, Andreas & Somogyi, Fabricius, 2022. "Constrained Dealers and Market Efficiency," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264054, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    17. Nick Guest & S. P. Kothari & Eric So, 2023. "Flight to Earnings: The Role of Earnings in Periods of Capital Scarcity," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(8), pages 4908-4931, August.
    18. Marco Macchiavelli & Xing (Alex) Zhou, 2022. "Funding Liquidity and Market Liquidity: The Broker-Dealer Perspective," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(5), pages 3379-3398, May.
    19. Chiu, Junmao & Lien, Donald & Tsai, Wei-Che, 2023. "Global financial crisis, funding constraints, and liquidity of VIX futures," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    20. Aramonte, Sirio & Szerszeń, Paweł J., 2020. "Cross-market liquidity and dealer profitability: Evidence from the bond and CDS markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:169:y:2025:i:c:s0304405x2500025x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505576 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.