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Too big to ignore? Hedge fund flows and bond yields

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  • Kolokolova, Olga
  • Lin, Ming-Tsung
  • Poon, Ser-Huang

Abstract

This paper investigates the information content of aggregate hedge fund flow and its predictive power with respect to bond yields. Using a sample of 9725 hedge funds from 1994 to 2012, we find that fund flow is negatively related to the changes in 10-year Treasury and Moody’s Baa bond yields one month ahead. This relation is still pronounced after controlling for other determinants of yield changes, including the amount of arbitrage capital available in the economy, suggesting a non-trivial effect of flow-induced hedge fund trading on bond yields. Flow impact on corporate bonds is further amplified during periods of decreasing market liquidity, consistent with a fire-sale hypothesis. Hedge fund flow also predicts convergence between constant maturity swap rate and constant maturity Treasury rate, as well as between the TIPS and Treasury bond yields, suggesting that hedge funds exploit arbitrage opportunities in these fixed-income markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Kolokolova, Olga & Lin, Ming-Tsung & Poon, Ser-Huang, 2020. "Too big to ignore? Hedge fund flows and bond yields," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:112:y:2020:i:c:s0378426617302960
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2017.12.009
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    2. Laleh Samarbakhsh & Meet Shah, 2021. "Fixed income mutual fund performance during and after a crisis: a Canadian case," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 45(4), pages 654-676, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hedge funds; Flows; Bond yields;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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