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Margins and Hedge Fund Contagion

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  • Dudley, Evan
  • Nimalendran, Mahendrarajah

Abstract

Funding risk measures the extent to which a fund can borrow money by posting collateral. Using a novel measure of funding risk based on futures margins, we are able to empirically identify the mechanism by which changes in funding risk affect the likelihood of contagion. An increase in margins of the order of magnitude observed during the subprime crisis increases the probability of contagion among certain types of funds by up to 34%. Our analysis shows that some types of hedge funds are more vulnerable to contagion than others. Our results also suggest that policies that limit the magnitude of changes in margins over short periods of time may reduce the likelihood of contagion among hedge funds.

Suggested Citation

  • Dudley, Evan & Nimalendran, Mahendrarajah, 2011. "Margins and Hedge Fund Contagion," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(5), pages 1227-1257, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:46:y:2011:i:05:p:1227-1257_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Akay, Ozgur (Ozzy) & Senyuz, Zeynep & Yoldas, Emre, 2013. "Hedge fund contagion and risk-adjusted returns: A Markov-switching dynamic factor approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 16-29.
    2. Kolokolova, Olga & Lin, Ming-Tsung & Poon, Ser-Huang, 2020. "Too big to ignore? Hedge fund flows and bond yields," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    3. Martin Hoesli & Kustrim Reka, 2015. "Contagion Channels between Real Estate and Financial Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 43(1), pages 101-138, March.
    4. Christian Manicaro & Joseph Falzon, 2017. "Hedge funds risk and connectedness," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 18(4), pages 295-316, July.
    5. Mark D. Flood & Phillip Monin, 2016. "Form PF and Hedge Funds: Risk-measurement Precision for Option Portfolios," Working Papers 16-02, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    6. Frank Hespeler & Giuseppe Loiacono, 2017. "Monitoring systemic risk in the hedge fund sector," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(12), pages 1859-1883, December.
    7. Hee Soo Lee & Tae Yoon Kim, 2018. "Hedge Fund Styles and their Contagion from the Equity Market," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 91-112, March.
    8. Foley, Sean & Kwan, Amy & Philip, Richard & Ødegaard, Bernt Arne, 2022. "Contagious margin calls: How COVID-19 threatened global stock market liquidity," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 59(PA).
    9. Boyson, Nicole M. & Stahel, Christof W. & Stulz, Rene M., 2011. "Liquidity Shocks and Hedge Fund Contagion," Working Paper Series 2011-12, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    10. Mark D. Flood & Phillip Monin & Lina Bandyopadhyay, 2015. "Gauging Form PF: Data Tolerances in Regulatory Reporting on Hedge Fund Risk Exposures," Working Papers 15-13, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    11. Akay, Ozgur (Ozzy) & Senyuz, Zeynep & Yoldas, Emre, 2013. "Hedge fund contagion and risk-adjusted returns: A Markov-switching dynamic factor approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 16-29.
    12. Dragomirescu-Gaina, Catalin & Philippas, Dionisis & Tsionas, Mike G., 2021. "Trading off accuracy for speed: Hedge funds' decision-making under uncertainty," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    13. Gregoriou, Greg N. & Racicot, François-Éric & Théoret, Raymond, 2021. "The response of hedge fund tail risk to macroeconomic shocks: A nonlinear VAR approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 843-872.
    14. Ghulam, Yaseen & Doering, Jana, 2018. "Spillover effects among financial institutions within Germany and the United Kingdom," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 49-63.
    15. Patton, Andrew J., 2012. "A review of copula models for economic time series," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 4-18.
    16. Tae Yoon Kim & Hee Soo Lee, 2018. "The contagion versus interdependence controversy between hedge funds and equity markets," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 24(3), pages 309-330, June.
    17. Rytchkov, Oleg, 2016. "Time-Varying Margin Requirements and Optimal Portfolio Choice," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(2), pages 655-683, April.
    18. Clemens Sialm & Zheng Sun & Lu Zheng, 2020. "Home Bias and Local Contagion: Evidence from Funds of Hedge Funds," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(10), pages 4771-4810.
    19. Sharif Mazumder & Louis R. Piccotti, 2023. "Systemic Risk: Bank Characteristics Matter," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 64(2), pages 265-301, October.
    20. Patton, Andrew, 2013. "Copula Methods for Forecasting Multivariate Time Series," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 899-960, Elsevier.
    21. David C. Ling & Andy Naranjo & Benjamin Scheick, 2016. "Credit Availability and Asset Pricing Dynamics in Illiquid Markets: Evidence from Commercial Real Estate Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(7), pages 1321-1362, October.

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