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Follies subdued: Informational efficiency under adaptive expectations and confirmatory bias

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  • Aldashev, Gani
  • Carletti, Timoteo
  • Righi, Simone

Abstract

We study the informational efficiency of a market with a single traded asset. The price initially differs from the fundamental value, about which the agents have noisy private information (which is, on average, correct). A fraction of traders revise their price expectations in each period. The price at which the asset is traded is public information. The agents’ expectations have an adaptive component and a social-interactions component with confirmatory bias. We show that, taken separately, each of the deviations from rationality worsens the informational efficiency of the market. However, when the two biases are combined, the degree of informational inefficiency of the market (measured as the deviation of the long-run market price from the fundamental value of the asset) can be non-monotonic both in the weight of the adaptive component and in the degree of confirmatory bias. For some ranges of parameters, two biases tend to mitigate each other’s effect, thus increasing informational efficiency.

Suggested Citation

  • Aldashev, Gani & Carletti, Timoteo & Righi, Simone, 2011. "Follies subdued: Informational efficiency under adaptive expectations and confirmatory bias," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 110-121.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:80:y:2011:i:1:p:110-121
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2011.03.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert J. Shiller, 1984. "Stock Prices and Social Dynamics," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 15(2), pages 457-510.
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    7. Ernan Haruvy & Yaron Lahav & Charles N. Noussair, 2007. "Traders' Expectations in Asset Markets: Experimental Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(5), pages 1901-1920, December.
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    9. Gode, Dhananjay K & Sunder, Shyam, 1993. "Allocative Efficiency of Markets with Zero-Intelligence Traders: Market as a Partial Substitute for Individual Rationality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(1), pages 119-137, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yuri Biondi & Simone Righi, 2016. "What does the financial market pricing do? A simulation analysis with a view to systemic volatility, exuberance and vagary," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 11(2), pages 175-203, October.
    2. Biondi, Yuri & Giannoccolo, Pierpaolo & Galam, Serge, 2012. "Formation of share market prices under heterogeneous beliefs and common knowledge," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(22), pages 5532-5545.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Informational efficiency; Confirmatory bias; Agent-based models; Asset pricing;

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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