IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jeborg/v238y2025ics0167268125002537.html

Beliefs, credence goods and information campaigns

Author

Listed:
  • Colombo, Ferdinando
  • Ursino, Giovanni

Abstract

We study the role of beliefs about experts’ honesty in a credence goods model with second opinions. The welfare-maximizing belief generally differs from the actual share of honest experts and exceeds the belief that maximizes honest behavior. Transparency, defined as experts’ awareness of opinion order, shapes the optimal belief and may enhance or hinder honest behavior. Incorporating beliefs and transparency into the standard model opens the door to interesting policy implications, like the opportunity for a public authority to release an information campaign that affects people’s beliefs. We identify conditions under which the costless revelation of the share of honest experts improves welfare, showing that they are independent of initial belief accuracy.

Suggested Citation

  • Colombo, Ferdinando & Ursino, Giovanni, 2025. "Beliefs, credence goods and information campaigns," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 238(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:238:y:2025:i:c:s0167268125002537
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107134
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167268125002537
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107134?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hennig-Schmidt, Heike & Selten, Reinhard & Wiesen, Daniel, 2011. "How payment systems affect physicians' provision behaviour--An experimental investigation," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 637-646, July.
    2. Balafoutas, Loukas & Kerschbamer, Rudolf, 2020. "Credence goods in the literature: What the past fifteen years have taught us about fraud, incentives, and the role of institutions," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    3. Winand Emons, 2013. "Incentive-Compatible Reimbursement Schemes for Physicians," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 169(4), pages 605-620, December.
    4. Uwe Dulleck & Rudolf Kerschbamer, 2006. "On Doctors, Mechanics, and Computer Specialists: The Economics of Credence Goods," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 44(1), pages 5-42, March.
    5. Godager, Geir & Wiesen, Daniel, 2013. "Profit or patients’ health benefit? Exploring the heterogeneity in physician altruism," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1105-1116.
    6. Fong, Yuk-fai & Liu, Ting & Wright, Donald J., 2014. "On the role of verifiability and commitment in credence goods markets," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 118-129.
    7. Asher Wolinsky, 1993. "Competition in a Market for Informed Experts' Services," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 24(3), pages 380-398, Autumn.
    8. Hennig-Schmidt, Heike & Wiesen, Daniel, 2014. "Other-regarding behavior and motivation in health care provision: An experiment with medical and non-medical students," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 156-165.
    9. Wolfgang Pesendorfer & Asher Wolinsky, 2003. "Second Opinions and Price Competition: Inefficiency in the Market for Expert Advice," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 70(2), pages 417-437.
    10. Emir Kamenica & Matthew Gentzkow, 2011. "Bayesian Persuasion," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2590-2615, October.
    11. Ting Liu, 2011. "Credence Goods Markets With Conscientious And Selfish Experts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(1), pages 227-244, February.
    12. Mimra, Wanda & Rasch, Alexander & Waibel, Christian, 2016. "Second opinions in markets for expert services: Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 131(PB), pages 106-125.
    13. Emons, Winand, 2001. "Credence goods monopolists," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 19(3-4), pages 375-389, March.
    14. Ingela Alger & François Salanié, 2006. "A Theory of Fraud and Overtreatment in Experts Markets," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(4), pages 853-881, December.
    15. Beck, Adrian & Kerschbamer, Rudolf & Qiu, Jianying & Sutter, Matthias, 2013. "Shaping beliefs in experimental markets for expert services: Guilt aversion and the impact of promises and money-burning options," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 145-164.
    16. Darby, Michael R & Karni, Edi, 1973. "Free Competition and the Optimal Amount of Fraud," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 16(1), pages 67-88, April.
    17. Raith, Michael, 1996. "A General Model of Information Sharing in Oligopoly," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 260-288, October.
    18. Rudolf Kerschbamer & Matthias Sutter & Uwe Dulleck, 2017. "How Social Preferences Shape Incentives in (Experimental) Markets for Credence Goods," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(600), pages 393-416, March.
    19. Green, Ellen P., 2014. "Payment systems in the healthcare industry: An experimental study of physician incentives," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 367-378.
    20. Kai Sülzle & Achim Wambach, 2005. "Insurance in a Market for Credence Goods," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 72(1), pages 159-176, March.
    21. Rudolf Kerschbamer & Matthias Sutter & Uwe Dulleck, 2017. "How Social Preferences Shape Incentives in (Experimental) Markets for Credence Goods," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(600), pages 393-416, March.
    22. Pitchik, Carolyn & Schotter, Andrew, 1988. "Honesty in a Model of Strategic Information Transmission: Correction," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 1164-1164, December.
    23. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2002. "Social Value of Public Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1521-1534, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Katharina Momsen & Markus Ohndorf, 2022. "Seller Opportunism in Credence Good Markets – The Role of Market Conditions," Working Papers 2022-10, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    2. Balafoutas, Loukas & Kerschbamer, Rudolf, 2020. "Credence goods in the literature: What the past fifteen years have taught us about fraud, incentives, and the role of institutions," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    3. Ben Greiner & Le Zhang & Chengxiang Tang, 2017. "Separation of prescription and treatment in health care markets: A laboratory experiment," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(S3), pages 21-35, December.
    4. Bertrand Crettez & Régis Deloche & Marie‐Hélène Jeanneret‐Crettez, 2020. "A demand‐induced overtreatment model with heterogeneous experts," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 22(5), pages 1713-1733, September.
    5. Liu, Fang & Rasch, Alexander & Schwarz, Marco A. & Waibel, Christian, 2025. "The role of diagnostic ability in markets for expert services," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    6. Balafoutas, Loukas & Fornwagner, Helena & Kerschbamer, Rudolf & Sutter, Matthias & Tverdostup, Maryna, 2020. "Diagnostic Uncertainty and Insurance Coverage in Credence Goods Markets," IZA Discussion Papers 13848, IZA Network @ LISER.
    7. Helmut Bester & Matthias Dahm, 2018. "Credence Goods, Costly Diagnosis and Subjective Evaluation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(611), pages 1367-1394, June.
    8. Liu, Ting & Ma, Ching-to Albert, 2024. "Equilibrium information in credence goods," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 84-101.
    9. Yiran Cao & Yongmin Chen & Yucheng Ding & Tianle Zhang, 2026. "Search and Competition in Expert Markets," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 57(1), pages 158-175, March.
    10. Bester, Helmut & Ouyang, Yaofu, 2018. "Optimal procurement of a credence good under limited liability," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 96-129.
    11. Yongmin Chen & Jianpei Li & Jin Zhang, 2022. "Efficient Liability In Expert Markets," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1717-1744, November.
    12. Mimra, Wanda & Rasch, Alexander & Waibel, Christian, 2016. "Second opinions in markets for expert services: Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 131(PB), pages 106-125.
    13. Dominik Erharter, 2012. "Credence goods markets, distributional preferences and the role of institutions," Working Papers 2012-11, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    14. Uwe Dulleck & Rudolf Kerschbamer & Alexander Konovalov, 2024. "Too Much or Too Little? Price Discrimination in a Market for Credence Goods," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 180(1), pages 106-143.
    15. Huck, Steffen & Lünser, Gabriele & Spitzer, Florian & Tyran, Jean-Robert, 2016. "Medical insurance and free choice of physician shape patient overtreatment: A laboratory experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 131(PB), pages 78-105.
    16. Green, Ellen P. & Kloosterman, Andrew, 2022. "Agent sorting by incentive systems in mission firms: Implications for healthcare and other credence goods markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 408-429.
    17. Agarwal, Ritu & Liu, Che-Wei & Prasad, Kislaya, 2019. "Personal research, second opinions, and the diagnostic effort of experts," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 44-61.
    18. Dulleck, Uwe & Kerschbamer, Rudolf, 2009. "Experts vs. discounters: Consumer free-riding and experts withholding advice in markets for credence goods," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 15-23, January.
    19. Martin Obradovits & Philipp Plaickner, 2024. "Searching for Treatment," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 180(1), pages 144-186.
    20. Schneider, Tim & Meub, Lukas & Bizer, Kilian, 2021. "Consumer information in a market for expert services: Experimental evidence," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 94(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:238:y:2025:i:c:s0167268125002537. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jebo .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.