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Learning, political attitudes and crises: Lessons from transition countries

Author

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  • Grosjean, Pauline
  • Ricka, Frantisek
  • Senik, Claudia

Abstract

This paper illustrates the sensitivity of political attitudes to the business cycle. It shows how the 2008 economic crisis has reshaped individual support for democracy and market liberalization in post-transition countries. Pro-reform attitudes have lost ground between 2006 and 2010 in Central and Eastern European countries that were hit by a negative economic shock. By contrast, they have increased in the CIS. Although on average, individual exposure to the crisis is associated with lower support to democracy and markets, it drives the demand for liberal reforms among groups of the population that were most excluded from the political-economic system in place, the youth particularly, in countries that lag behind in terms of liberalization and, where institutions are corrupt. We propose an interpretation of these evolutions in terms of learning and updating of beliefs.

Suggested Citation

  • Grosjean, Pauline & Ricka, Frantisek & Senik, Claudia, 2013. "Learning, political attitudes and crises: Lessons from transition countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 490-505.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jcecon:v:41:y:2013:i:2:p:490-505
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2012.06.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Philippe Aghion & Yann Algan & Pierre Cahuc & Andrei Shleifer, 2010. "Regulation and Distrust," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 125(3), pages 1015-1049.
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    Cited by:

    1. Habibov, Nazim, 2016. "Effect of corruption on healthcare satisfaction in post-soviet nations: A cross-country instrumental variable analysis of twelve countries," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 119-124.
    2. Maxim Ananiev & Sergei Guriev, 2014. "The Effect of Income on Trust: the Evidence from 2009 Crisis in Russia," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/8lt2edmul9g, Sciences Po.
    3. Sangnier, Marc & Zylberberg, Yanos, 2017. "Protests and trust in the state: Evidence from African countries," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 55-67.
    4. Perera, Anil & Wickramanayake, J., 2016. "Determinants of commercial bank retail interest rate adjustments: Evidence from a panel data model," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 1-20.
    5. De Haas, Ralph & Djourelova, Milena & Nikolova, Elena, 2016. "The Great Recession and social preferences: Evidence from Ukraine," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 92-107.
    6. Sangnier, Marc & Zylberberg, Yanos, 2017. "Protests and trust in the state: Evidence from African countries," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 55-67.
    7. repec:pia:review:v:9:y:2018:i:1:n:2 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Inácio Araúgo & Randall Jackson & Amir B. Ferreira Neto & Fernando Perobelli, 2018. "Environmental Costs of European Union Membership: A Structural Decomposition Analysis," Working Papers Working Paper 2018-04, Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University.
    9. Marcos Alvarez Diaz & Gonzalo Caballero Miguez & Baltasar Manzano González & José M. Martín Moreno, 2015. "Assessment of Political Situation over the Business Cycle in Spain: A Time Series Analysis," Hacienda Pública Española, IEF, vol. 213(2), pages 41-62, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Political preferences; Crisis; Cycles; Corruption; Learning;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries
    • P26 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - Political Economy

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