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Macroeconomic variable selection for creditor recovery rates

Author

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  • Nazemi, Abdolreza
  • Fabozzi, Frank J.

Abstract

We study the relationship between U.S. corporate bond recovery rates and macroeconomic variables used in the credit risk literature. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) is used in selecting macroeconomic variables. The LASSO-selected macroeconomic variables are considered to be explanatory variables in ordinary least squares regressions, bootstrap aggregating (bagging), regression trees, boosting, LASSO, ridge regression and support vector regression techniques. We compare the out-of-sample predictive power of two types of models (LASSO-selected models with models that add principal components derived from 179 macroeconomic variables as explanatory variables). We find the recovery models with LASSO-selected macroeconomic variables outperform suggested models in the literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Nazemi, Abdolreza & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2018. "Macroeconomic variable selection for creditor recovery rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 14-25.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:89:y:2018:i:c:p:14-25
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2018.01.006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. repec:gam:jrisks:v:7:y:2019:i:2:p:57-:d:232426 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Hong Wang & Catherine S. Forbes & Jean-Pierre Fenech & John Vaz, 2018. "The determinants of bank loan recovery rates in good times and bad - new evidence," Papers 1804.07022, arXiv.org.
    3. Hong Wang & Catherine S. Forbes & Jean-Pierre Fenech & John Vaz, 2018. "The determinants of bank loan recovery rates in good times and bad -- new evidence," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 7/18, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconomic variables; Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO); Corporate bond; Recovery rates; Credit risk;

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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