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Why are convertible bond announcements associated with increasingly negative issuer stock returns? An arbitrage-based explanation

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  • Duca, Eric
  • Dutordoir, Marie
  • Veld, Chris
  • Verwijmeren, Patrick

Abstract

While convertible offerings announced between 1984 and 1999 induce average abnormal stock returns of −1.69%, convertible announcement effects over the period 2000–2008 are more than twice as negative (−4.59%). We hypothesize that this evolution is attributable to a shift in the convertible bond investor base from long-only investors towards convertible arbitrage funds. These funds buy convertibles and short the underlying stocks, causing downward price pressure. Consistent with this hypothesis, we find that the differences in announcement returns between the Traditional Investor period (1984–1999) and the Arbitrage period (2000–September 2008) disappear when controlling for arbitrage-induced short selling associated with a range of hedging strategies. Post-issuance stock returns are also in line with the arbitrage explanation. Average announcement effects of convertibles issued during the Global Financial Crisis are even more negative (−9.12%), due to a combination of short-selling price pressure and issuer, issue, and macroeconomic characteristics associated with these offerings.

Suggested Citation

  • Duca, Eric & Dutordoir, Marie & Veld, Chris & Verwijmeren, Patrick, 2012. "Why are convertible bond announcements associated with increasingly negative issuer stock returns? An arbitrage-based explanation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 2884-2899.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:36:y:2012:i:11:p:2884-2899 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2012.03.019
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    2. Dutordoir, Marie & Li, Hui & Liu, Frank Hong & Verwijmeren, Patrick, 2016. "Convertible bond announcement effects: Why is Japan different?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 76-92.
    3. Henderson, Brian J. & Zhao, Bo, 2014. "More than meets the eye: Convertible bond issuers' concurrent transactions," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 57-79.
    4. Dutordoir, Marie & Lewis, Craig & Seward, James & Veld, Chris, 2014. "What we do and do not know about convertible bond financing," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 3-20.
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    8. Bechmann, Ken L. & Lunde, Asger & Zebedee, Allan A., 2014. "In- and out-of-the-money convertible bond calls: Signaling or price pressure?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 135-148.
    9. Dorion, Christian & François, Pascal & Grass, Gunnar & Jeanneret, Alexandre, 2014. "Convertible debt and shareholder incentives," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 38-56.
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    11. Li, Hui & Liu, Hong & Siganos, Antonios, 2016. "A comparison of the stock market reactions of convertible bond offerings between financial and non-financial institutions: Do they differ?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 356-366.
    12. Li, Hui & Liu, Hong & Siganos, Antonios & Zhou, Mingming, 2016. "Bank regulation, financial crisis, and the announcement effects of seasoned equity offerings of US commercial banks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 37-46.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Convertible debt announcement effect; Convertible arbitrage; Short selling; Hedge funds;

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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