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An Empirical Comparison of Convertible Bond Valuation Models

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  • Yuriy Zabolotnyuk
  • Robert Jones
  • Chris Veld

Abstract

This paper empirically compares three convertible bond valuation models. We use an innovative approach where all model parameters are estimated by the Marquardt algorithm using a subsample of convertible bond prices. The model parameters are then used for out‐of‐sample forecasts of convertible bond prices. The mean absolute deviation is 1.86% for the Ayache‐Forsyth‐Vetzal model, 1.94% for the Tsiveriotis‐Fernandes model, and 3.73% for the Brennan‐Schwartz model. For this and other measures of fit, the Ayache‐Forsyth‐Vetzal and Tsiveriotis‐Fernandes models outperform the Brennan‐Schwartz model.

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  • Yuriy Zabolotnyuk & Robert Jones & Chris Veld, 2010. "An Empirical Comparison of Convertible Bond Valuation Models," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 39(2), pages 675-706, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:finmgt:v:39:y:2010:i:2:p:675-706
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1755-053X.2010.01088.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Bruce D. Grundy & Patrick Verwijmeren, 2012. "Dividend-Protected Convertible Bonds and the Disappearance," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-060/2/DSF37, Tinbergen Institute.
    2. Fan, Chenxi & Luo, Xingguo & Wu, Qingbiao, 2017. "Stochastic volatility vs. jump diffusions: Evidence from the Chinese convertible bond market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 1-16.
    3. Finnerty, John D., 2015. "Valuing convertible bonds and the option to exchange bonds for stock," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 91-115.
    4. Tim Xiao, 2015. "Is the jump-diffusion model a good solution for credit risk modelling? The case of convertible bonds," International Journal of Financial Markets and Derivatives, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(1), pages 1-25.
    5. Duca, Eric & Dutordoir, Marie & Veld, Chris & Verwijmeren, Patrick, 2012. "Why are convertible bond announcements associated with increasingly negative issuer stock returns? An arbitrage-based explanation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 2884-2899.
    6. de Jong, Abe & Dutordoir, Marie & Verwijmeren, Patrick, 2011. "Why do convertible issuers simultaneously repurchase stock? An arbitrage-based explanation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 113-129, April.
    7. Jonathan A. Batten & Karren Lee-Hwei Khaw & Martin R. Young, 2014. "Convertible Bond Pricing Models," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(5), pages 775-803, December.
    8. Dutordoir, Marie & Lewis, Craig & Seward, James & Veld, Chris, 2014. "What we do and do not know about convertible bond financing," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 3-20.
    9. Xiao, Tim, 2013. "A Simple and Precise Method for Pricing Convertible Bond with Credit Risk," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 19(4), pages 259-277.
    10. K. Milanov & O. Kounchev, 2012. "Binomial Tree Model for Convertible Bond Pricing within Equity to Credit Risk Framework," Papers 1206.1400, arXiv.org.
    11. Marle, Mats van & Verwijmeren, Patrick, 2017. "The long and the short of convertible arbitrage: An empirical examination of arbitrageurs’ holding periods," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 237-249.
    12. Loncarski, I., 2007. "Essays on the use of convertible bonds and the security issuance decision," Other publications TiSEM a99aaa14-d375-414b-8643-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    13. Ling, Yu-Xiu & Xie, Chi & Wang, Gang-Jin, 2022. "Interconnectedness between convertible bonds and underlying stocks in the Chinese capital market: A multilayer network perspective," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).

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