Equity market information, bank holding company risk, and market discipline
For market discipline to be effective, market factors such as changes in firm equity and debt values and returns, must influence firm decision making. In banking, this can occur directly via bank management or indirectly though supervisory examinations and oversight influencing bank management. In this study, we investigate whether equity market variables can provide timely information and add value to accounting models that predict changes in bank holding company (BOPEC) risk ratings over the 1988-2000 period. Using a variety of equity market indicators, the findings suggest that one-quarter lagged market data adds forecast value to lagged financial statement data and prior supervisory information in the logistic regressions. Furthermore, using extensive out-of-sample testing for the years 2001-2003, we find: (1) that multiple models estimated over different phases of the business and banking cycles are superior to a single model for forecasting BOPEC rating changes; (2) that equity data adds economically significant power in forecasting BOPEC rating upgrades and performs well for identifying no changes; (3) that for downgrades, the accounting model forecasts the best; (4) that modeling the three possible risk ratings categories simultaneously (downgrade, no change and upgrade) minimizes both Type I and Type II classification errors; and (5) that using multiple models to forecast risk ratings enhances the overall percentage of correct classifications.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gropp, Reint & Vesala, Jukka & Vulpes, Giuseppe, 2002.
"Equity and bond market signals as leading indicators of bank fragility,"
Working Paper Series
0150, European Central Bank.
- Reint Gropp & Jukka M. Vesala & Giuseppe Vulpes, 2002. "Equity and bond market signals as leading indicators of bank fragility," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Gropp, Reint & Vesala, Jukka & Vulpes, Giuseppe, 2006. "Equity and Bond Market Signals as Leading Indicators of Bank Fragility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 399-428, March.
- Merton, Robert C., 1973.
"On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates,"
684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May.
- Krainer, John & Lopez, Jose A, 2004.
"Incorporating Equity Market Information into Supervisory Monitoring Models,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(6), pages 1043-67, December.
- John Krainer & Jose A. Lopez, 2001. "Incorporating equity market information into supervisory monitoring models," Working Paper Series 2001-14, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Berger, Allen N & Davies, Sally M & Flannery, Mark J, 2000.
"Comparing Market and Supervisory Assessments of Bank Performance: Who Knows What When?,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 641-67, August.
- Allen N. Berger & Sally M. Davies & Mark J. Flannery, 2000. "Comparing market and supervisory assessments of bank performance: who knows what when?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 641-670.
- Allen N. Berger & Sally M. Davies & Mark J. Flannery, 1998. "Comparing market and supervisory assessments of bank performance: who knows what when?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-32, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Francesco Cannata & Mario Quagliariello, 2005. "The Value of Market Information in Banking Supervision: Evidence from Italy," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 27(2), pages 139-162, April.
- Mark Flannery, 2001. "The Faces of “Market Discipline”," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 20(2), pages 107-119, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:32:y:2008:i:5:p:807-819. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.