IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jbfina/v133y2021ics0378426621002387.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

China's no-bailout reform: Impact on bond yields and rating standards

Author

Listed:
  • Mo, Guiqing
  • Gao, Zhi
  • Zhou, Lei

Abstract

The Chinese government broke its long-standing practice of bond bailouts in March 2014. The number and value of bond defaults increased substantially in the following years. We investigate bond defaults in China from 2014 to 2019 and examine the impact of no-bailout reform. We find significantly higher yield spreads on lower-rated bonds over AAA bonds after the policy change. Furthermore, we document much lower default rates for SOE bonds than non-SOE bonds and an increased funding advantage of SOEs after March 2014. Surprisingly, credit rating agencies loosened rating standards in response to the policy change, suggesting their caving into issuer demands for higher ratings.

Suggested Citation

  • Mo, Guiqing & Gao, Zhi & Zhou, Lei, 2021. "China's no-bailout reform: Impact on bond yields and rating standards," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:133:y:2021:i:c:s0378426621002387
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2021.106282
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426621002387
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2021.106282?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Flannery, Mark J & Sorescu, Sorin M, 1996. "Evidence of Bank Market Discipline in Subordinated Debenture Yields: 1983-1991," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1347-1377, September.
    2. Dewatripont, Mathias & Roland, Gerard, 1995. "The Design of Reform Packages under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1207-1223, December.
    3. Skreta, Vasiliki & Veldkamp, Laura, 2009. "Ratings shopping and asset complexity: A theory of ratings inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(5), pages 678-695, July.
    4. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Michael Sockin & Wei Xiong, 2017. "China's Gradualistic Economic Approach and Financial Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 608-613, May.
    5. Li-Wen Lin & Curtis J. Milhaupt, 2017. "Bonded to the State: A Network Perspective on China's Corporate Debt Market," Journal of Financial Regulation, Oxford University Press, vol. 3(1), pages 1-39.
    6. Patrick Bolton & Xavier Freixas & Joel Shapiro, 2012. "The Credit Ratings Game," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(1), pages 85-112, February.
    7. Marshall E. Blume & Felix Lim & A. Craig Mackinlay, 1998. "The Declining Credit Quality of U.S. Corporate Debt: Myth or Reality?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(4), pages 1389-1413, August.
    8. Seru, Amit, 2014. "Firm boundaries matter: Evidence from conglomerates and R&D activity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(2), pages 381-405.
    9. Marshall E. Blume & Felix Lim & A. Craig MacKinlay, "undated". "The Declining Credit Quality of US Corporate Debt: Myth or Reality?," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 03-98, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    10. Zheng Song & Kjetil Storesletten & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2011. "Growing Like China," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 196-233, February.
    11. Bayoumi, Tamim & Goldstein, Morris & Woglom, Geoffrey, 1995. "Do Credit Markets Discipline Sovereign Borrowers? Evidence from the U.S. States," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 1046-1059, November.
    12. Becker, Bo & Milbourn, Todd, 2011. "How did increased competition affect credit ratings?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(3), pages 493-514, September.
    13. Balasubramnian, Bhanu & Cyree, Ken B., 2014. "Has market discipline on banks improved after the Dodd–Frank Act?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 155-166.
    14. Alwyn Young, 2000. "The Razor's Edge: Distortions and Incremental Reform in the People's Republic of China," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(4), pages 1091-1135.
    15. Balasubramnian, Bhanu & Cyree, Ken B., 2011. "Market discipline of banks: Why are yield spreads on bank-issued subordinated notes and debentures not sensitive to bank risks?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 21-35, January.
    16. Mi, Zhou & Wang, Xiaoming, 2000. "Agency cost and the crisis of China's SOE," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 297-317.
    17. Marshall E. Blume & Felix Lim & A. Craig MacKinlay, "undated". "The Declining Credit Quality of US Corporate Debt: Myth or Reality?," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 3-98, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    18. Woo Wing Thye, 1994. "The Art of Reforming Centrally Planned Economies: Comparing China, Poland, and Russia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 276-308, June.
    19. Bar-Isaac, Heski & Shapiro, Joel, 2013. "Ratings quality over the business cycle," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 62-78.
    20. Guofu Tan & Justin Yifu Lin, 1999. "Policy Burdens, Accountability, and the Soft Budget Constraint," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 426-431, May.
    21. Jiang, Xianfeng & Packer, Frank, 2019. "Credit ratings of Chinese firms by domestic and global agencies: Assessing the determinants and impact," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 178-193.
    22. Morse, Adair, 2011. "Payday lenders: Heroes or villains?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(1), pages 28-44, October.
    23. Kevin M. Murphy & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1992. "The Transition to a Market Economy: Pitfalls of Partial Reform," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(3), pages 889-906.
    24. Bai, Chong-En & Li, David D. & Tao, Zhigang & Wang, Yijiang, 2000. "A Multitask Theory of State Enterprise Reform," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 716-738, December.
    25. Ramin P. Baghai & Henri Servaes & Ane Tamayo, 2014. "Have Rating Agencies Become More Conservative? Implications for Capital Structure and Debt Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(5), pages 1961-2005, October.
    26. Livingston, Miles & Poon, Winnie P.H. & Zhou, Lei, 2018. "Are Chinese credit ratings relevant? A study of the Chinese bond market and credit rating industry," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 216-232.
    27. Jiang, John (Xuefeng) & Harris Stanford, Mary & Xie, Yuan, 2012. "Does it matter who pays for bond ratings? Historical evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 607-621.
    28. Haizhou Huang & Ning Zhu, 2007. "The Chinese Bond Market: Historical Lessons, Present Challenges and Future Perspectives," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2582, Yale School of Management, revised 21 Sep 2009.
    29. Alwyn Young, 2000. "The Razor's Edge: Distortions and Incremental Reform in the People's Republic of China," NBER Working Papers 7828, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Shang-Jin Wei, 1997. "Gradualism versus Big Bang: Speed and Sustainability of Reforms," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 30(4), pages 1234-1247, November.
    31. Kaplan, Robert S & Urwitz, Gabriel, 1979. "Statistical Models of Bond Ratings: A Methodological Inquiry," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 52(2), pages 231-261, April.
    32. Opp, Christian C. & Opp, Marcus M. & Harris, Milton, 2013. "Rating agencies in the face of regulation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 46-61.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Huang, Xiaoyong & Yu, Cong & Chen, Yunping & Jia, Fei & Xu, Xiangyun, 2022. "Rigid payment breaking, default spread and yields of Chinese treasury bonds," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    2. Liu, Tianming & Xiong, Haifang & Li, Yifei & Wang, Zhiqiang, 2023. "The flight to safety during credit recovery: The role of implicit government guarantees," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xia, Han, 2014. "Can investor-paid credit rating agencies improve the information quality of issuer-paid rating agencies?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(2), pages 450-468.
    2. Jess N. Cornaggia & Kimberly J. Cornaggia & John E. Hund, 2017. "Credit Ratings Across Asset Classes: A Long-Term Perspective," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(2), pages 465-509.
    3. Hu, Xiaolu & Shi, Jing & Wang, Lafang & Yu, Jing, 2020. "Foreign ownership in Chinese credit ratings industry: Information revelation or certification?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    4. Berwart, Erik & Guidolin, Massimo & Milidonis, Andreas, 2019. "An empirical analysis of changes in the relative timeliness of issuer-paid vs. investor-paid ratings," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 88-118.
    5. Gerald J. Lobo & Luc Paugam & Hervé Stolowy & Pierre Astolfi, 2017. "The Effect of Business and Financial Market Cycles on Credit Ratings: Evidence from the Last Two Decades," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 53(1), pages 59-93, March.
    6. Deng, Kaihua & Qiao, Guannan, 2022. "Triple A default," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    7. Dimitrov, Valentin & Palia, Darius & Tang, Leo, 2015. "Impact of the Dodd-Frank act on credit ratings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 505-520.
    8. Attig, Najah & Driss, Hamdi & El Ghoul, Sadok, 2021. "Credit ratings quality in uncertain times," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    9. Lawrence J. White, 2013. "Credit Rating Agencies: An Overview," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 93-122, November.
    10. Patrick Behr & Darren J. Kisgen & Jérôme P. Taillard, 2018. "Did Government Regulations Lead to Inflated Credit Ratings?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(3), pages 1034-1054, March.
    11. Hung, Mingyi & Kraft, Pepa & Wang, Shiheng & Yu, Gwen, 2022. "Market power and credit rating standards: Global evidence," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2).
    12. Bae, Kee-Hong & Driss, Hamdi & Roberts, Gordon S., 2019. "Does competition affect ratings quality? Evidence from Canadian corporate bonds," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 605-623.
    13. Kraft, Pepa & Xie, Yuan & Zhou, Ling, 2020. "The intraday timing of rating changes," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    14. Attig, Najah & Driss, Hamdi & El Ghoul, Sadok, 2020. "Rating standards around the world: A puzzle?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    15. Baker, H. Kent & Dutta, Shantanu & Saadi, Samir & Zhong, Ligang, 2022. "Does media coverage affect credit rating change decisions?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    16. Jess N. Cornaggia & Kimberly J. Cornaggia & Ryan D. Israelsen, 2020. "Where the Heart Is: Information Production and the Home Bias," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(12), pages 5532-5557, December.
    17. Gregor Dorfleitner & Johannes Grebler, 2020. "The social and environmental drivers of corporate credit ratings: international evidence," Business Research, Springer;German Academic Association for Business Research, vol. 13(3), pages 1343-1415, November.
    18. Salvador, Carlos & Fernández de Guevara, Juan & Pastor, José Manuel, 2018. "The adjustment of bank ratings in the financial crisis: International evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 289-313.
    19. Wenming Xu & Yan Liu, 2021. "Does reputational capital affect credit rating agencies?: empirical evidence from a natural experiment in China," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 433-468, June.
    20. Chen, Yongmin & Gu, Dingwei & Yao, Zhiyong, 2013. "Rating Inflation versus Deflation: On Procyclical Credit Ratings," MPRA Paper 51159, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:133:y:2021:i:c:s0378426621002387. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.