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Asian trade flows: Trends, patterns and prospects

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  • Athukorala, Prema-chandra

Abstract

Over the past four decades merchandise trade of developing Asian economies (DAEs) has grown at a much faster rate than growth in world trade, with a distinct intra-regional bias. Global production sharing has become a unique feature of the region's economic landscape, with China playing a pivotal complementary role as the premier assembly centre within regional production networks. According to the projections made using the standard gravity model of international trade, total real non-oil trade of DAEs would increase at an annual rate of 8.2 percent during the next three decades, with a notable convergence of individual countries’ rates to the regional average. The share of intra-regional trade in total nonoil trade would increase steadily from 53 percent in 2010 to 58 percent in 2030. The trade-to-GDP ratio would increase from 39.4 percent and 74.4 percent between these two years.

Suggested Citation

  • Athukorala, Prema-chandra, 2012. "Asian trade flows: Trends, patterns and prospects," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 150-162.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:japwor:v:24:y:2012:i:2:p:150-162
    DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2012.01.003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lee, Jong-Wha & Hong, Kiseok, 2012. "Economic growth in Asia: Determinants and prospects," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 101-113.
    2. Soloaga, Isidro & Alan Wintersb, L., 2001. "Regionalism in the nineties: what effect on trade?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-29, March.
    3. Prema-chandra Athukorala, 2009. "The Rise of China and East Asian Export Performance: Is the Crowding-Out Fear Warranted?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 234-266, February.
    4. Romain Wacziarg & Karen Horn Welch, 2008. "Trade Liberalization and Growth: New Evidence," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 22(2), pages 187-231, June.
    5. Ng, Francis & Yeats, Alexander, 2003. "Major trade trends in East Asia : what are their implications for regional cooperation and growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3084, The World Bank.
    6. Greenaway, David & Mahabir, Aruneema & Milner, Chris, 2008. "Has China displaced other Asian countries' exports?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 152-169, June.
    7. Prema-chandra Athukorala, 2011. "Production Networks and Trade Patterns in East Asia: Regionalization or Globalization?," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 10(1), pages 65-95, Winter/Sp.
    8. Barry Eichengreen & Yeongseop Rhee & Hui Tong, 2007. "China and the Exports of Other Asian Countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 143(2), pages 201-226, July.
    9. Prema-chandra Athukorala & Archanun Kohpaiboon, 2011. "Australia-Thailand Trade: Has the FTA Made a Difference?," Departmental Working Papers 2011-12, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    10. Paul Krugman, 1995. "Growing World Trade: Causes and Consequences," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 327-377.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Richard Baldwin & Toshihiro Okubo, 2014. "Networked FDI: Sales and Sourcing Patterns of Japanese Foreign Affiliates," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(8), pages 1051-1080, August.
    2. C. Veeramani & Lakshmi A & Prachi Gupta, 2017. "Intensive and extensive margins of exports: What can India learn from China?," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2017-002, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    3. repec:bla:apacel:v:30:y:2016:i:2:p:72-89 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Baak, SaangJoon, 2014. "Do Chinese and Korean products compete in the Japanese market? An investigation of machinery exports," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 256-271.
    5. Sithanonxay Suvannaphakdy & Chris Czerkawaski & Toshihisa Toyoda, 2013. "Potential Impacts Of Regional Trade Enlargement In East Asia On Laos' Trade," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 38(3), pages 85-110, September.
    6. Afees Salisu & Idris Ademuyiwa, 2012. "Trade creation and trade diversion in West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ)," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(4), pages 3071-3081.
    7. Suvannaphakdy, Sithanonxay & Tang, Hsiao Chink & DiCaprio, Alisa, 2014. "Assessing the trade impacts of the ASEAN+6 FTA : the case of Lao People’s Democratic Republic," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 126, Asian Development Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade patterns; Developing Asian countries; Global production networks;

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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