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Asian trade flows: Trends, patterns and prospects

  • Athukorala, Prema-chandra

Over the past four decades merchandise trade of developing Asian economies (DAEs) has grown at a much faster rate than growth in world trade, with a distinct intra-regional bias. Global production sharing has become a unique feature of the region's economic landscape, with China playing a pivotal complementary role as the premier assembly centre within regional production networks. According to the projections made using the standard gravity model of international trade, total real non-oil trade of DAEs would increase at an annual rate of 8.2 percent during the next three decades, with a notable convergence of individual countries’ rates to the regional average. The share of intra-regional trade in total nonoil trade would increase steadily from 53 percent in 2010 to 58 percent in 2030. The trade-to-GDP ratio would increase from 39.4 percent and 74.4 percent between these two years.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Japan and the World Economy.

Volume (Year): 24 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 150-162

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Handle: RePEc:eee:japwor:v:24:y:2012:i:2:p:150-162
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505557

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  1. Lee, Jong-Wha & Hong, Kiseok, 2010. "Economic Growth in Asia: Determinants and Prospects," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 220, Asian Development Bank.
  2. Prema-Chandra Athukorala, 2008. "Singapore And Asean In The New Regional Division Of Labor," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 53(03), pages 479-508.
  3. Wacziarg, Romain & Welch, Karen Horn, 2003. "Trade Liberalization and Growth: New Evidence," Research Papers 1826, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
  4. Prema-chandra Athukorala, 2007. "The Rise of China and East Asian Export Performance: Is the Crowding-out Fear Warranted?," Departmental Working Papers 2007-10, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
  5. Greenaway, David & Mahabir, Aruneema & Milner, Chris, 2008. "Has China displaced other Asian countries' exports?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 152-169, June.
  6. Soloaga, Isidro & Winters, L. Alan, 1999. "Regionalism in the Nineties: What Effect on Trade?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2183, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Ng, Francis & Yeats, Alexander, 2003. "Major trade trends in East Asia : what are their implications for regional cooperation and growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3084, The World Bank.
  8. Athukorala, Prema-chandra, 2010. "Production Networks and Trade Patterns in East Asia: Regionalization or Globalization?," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 56, Asian Development Bank.
  9. Barry Eichengreen & Yeongseop Rhee & Hui Tong, 2007. "China and the Exports of Other Asian Countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 143(2), pages 201-226, July.
  10. Prema-chandra Athukorala & Archanun Kohpaiboon, 2011. "Australia-Thailand Trade: Has the FTA Made a Difference?," Departmental Working Papers 2011-12, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
  11. Paul Krugman, 1995. "Growing World Trade: Causes and Consequences," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 327-377.
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