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Asian trade flows: Trends, patterns and prospects

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  • Athukorala, Prema-chandra

Abstract

Over the past four decades merchandise trade of developing Asian economies (DAEs) has grown at a much faster rate than growth in world trade, with a distinct intra-regional bias. Global production sharing has become a unique feature of the region's economic landscape, with China playing a pivotal complementary role as the premier assembly centre within regional production networks. According to the projections made using the standard gravity model of international trade, total real non-oil trade of DAEs would increase at an annual rate of 8.2 percent during the next three decades, with a notable convergence of individual countries’ rates to the regional average. The share of intra-regional trade in total nonoil trade would increase steadily from 53 percent in 2010 to 58 percent in 2030. The trade-to-GDP ratio would increase from 39.4 percent and 74.4 percent between these two years.

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  • Athukorala, Prema-chandra, 2012. "Asian trade flows: Trends, patterns and prospects," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 150-162.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:japwor:v:24:y:2012:i:2:p:150-162
    DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2012.01.003
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    5. Padilla, Miguel Angel Esquivias & Sari, Dyah Wulan & Handoyo, Rossanto Dwi, 2017. "Formation of production networks in ASEAN: Measuring the real value-added and identifying the role of ASEAN countries in the world supply chains," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center (PRADEC), vol. 13(2).
    6. Sithanonxay Suvannaphakdy & Hsiao Chink Tang & Alisa DiCaprio, 2016. "Assessing the trade impacts of the ASEAN + 6 FTA for Lao PDR," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 30(2), pages 72-89, November.
    7. Baak, SaangJoon, 2014. "Do Chinese and Korean products compete in the Japanese market? An investigation of machinery exports," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 256-271.
    8. C. Veeramani, 2019. "Fragmentation Trade and Vertical Specialisation: How Does South Asia Compare with China," Journal of Asian Economic Integration, , vol. 1(1), pages 97-128, April.
    9. Sapkota, Jeet Bahadur & Shuto, Motoko, 2016. "Is Pan-Asian Economic Integration Moving Forward? Evidence from Regional Trade Statistics," MPRA Paper 106075, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. C. Veeramani & Prachi Gupta, 2014. "Extensive and Intensive Margins of India's Exports: Comparison with China," Working Papers id:5808, eSocialSciences.
    11. Nilanjan Banik & Khanindra Ch. Das, 2014. "The Location Substitution Effect: Does it Apply for China?," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 15(1), pages 59-75, March.
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    13. Tanrattanaphong, Borworn & Hu, Baiding & Gan, Christopher, 2020. "The impacts of value chain upgrading on the export of processed food," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    14. Sithanonxay Suvannaphakdy & Chris Czerkawaski & Toshihisa Toyoda, 2013. "Potential Impacts Of Regional Trade Enlargement In East Asia On Laos' Trade," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 38(3), pages 85-110, September.
    15. C. Veeramani & Garima Dhir, 2019. "Reaping gains from global production sharing: Domestic value addition and job creation by Indian exports," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2019-024, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    16. Afees Salisu & Idris Ademuyiwa, 2012. "Trade creation and trade diversion in West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ)," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(4), pages 3071-3081.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade patterns; Developing Asian countries; Global production networks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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