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Prison, semi-liberty and recidivism: Bounding causal effects in a survival model

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  • Monnery, Benjamin
  • Wolff, François-Charles
  • Henneguelle, Anaïs

Abstract

This paper investigates the effect of semi-liberty as an alternative to prison on recidivism in France. Our analysis is based on a unique dataset comprising 1445 offenders, all eligible to semi-liberty. In the absence of an instrumental variable affecting access to semi-liberty but unrelated to recidivism, we turn to selection-on-observable methods as well as sensitivity analyses to bound the causal effect of interest. Our results under treatment exogeneity (Cox regressions) and conditional independence (entropy balancing matching) show that semi-liberty is associated with a reduction of 22%–31% in offenders’ hazard of recidivism in the five years after release. The estimated effects decrease, but remain negative and significant when credible confounders are introduced. Overall, our analysis lends strong support for a beneficial effect of semi-liberty compared to prison.

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  • Monnery, Benjamin & Wolff, François-Charles & Henneguelle, Anaïs, 2020. "Prison, semi-liberty and recidivism: Bounding causal effects in a survival model," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:irlaec:v:61:y:2020:i:c:s0144818819302418
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irle.2019.105884
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    Cited by:

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    3. Meier, Armando N. & Levav, Jonathan & Meier, Stephan, 2020. "Early Release and Recidivism," IZA Discussion Papers 13035, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Recidivism; Semi-liberty; Halfway houses; Prison; Survival analyses; Sensitivity analyses;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • K14 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Criminal Law
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General

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