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Forecasting customer behaviour in a multi-service financial organisation: A profitability perspective

Author

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  • Audzeyeva, Alena
  • Summers, Barbara
  • Schenk-Hoppé, Klaus Reiner

Abstract

This paper proposes a novel approach to the estimation of Customer Lifetime Value (CLV). CLV measures give an indication of the profit-generating potential of customers, and provide a key business tool for the customer management process. The performances of existing approaches are unsatisfactory in multi-service financial environments because of the high degree of heterogeneity in customer behaviour. We propose an adaptive segmentation approach which involves the identification of “neighbourhoods” using a similarity measure defined over a predictive variable space. The set of predictive variables is determined during a cross-validation procedure through the optimisation of rank correlations between the observed and predicted revenues. The future revenue is forecast for each customer using a predictive probability distribution based on customers exhibiting behavioural characteristics similar to previous periods. The model is developed and implemented for a UK retail bank, and is shown to perform well in comparison to other benchmark models.

Suggested Citation

  • Audzeyeva, Alena & Summers, Barbara & Schenk-Hoppé, Klaus Reiner, 2012. "Forecasting customer behaviour in a multi-service financial organisation: A profitability perspective," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 507-518.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:28:y:2012:i:2:p:507-518
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2011.05.005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ivo Welch & Amit Goyal, 2008. "A Comprehensive Look at The Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1455-1508, July.
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    3. Bas Donkers & Peter Verhoef & Martijn Jong, 2007. "Modeling CLV: A test of competing models in the insurance industry," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 163-190, June.
    4. Thomas, Lyn C., 2000. "A survey of credit and behavioural scoring: forecasting financial risk of lending to consumers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 149-172.
    5. David C. Schmittlein & Donald G. Morrison & Richard Colombo, 1987. "Counting Your Customers: Who-Are They and What Will They Do Next?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(1), pages 1-24, January.
    6. Peter S. Fader & Bruce G. S. Hardie & Ka Lok Lee, 2005. "“Counting Your Customers” the Easy Way: An Alternative to the Pareto/NBD Model," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 24(2), pages 275-284, August.
    7. Finlay, Steven, 2010. "Credit scoring for profitability objectives," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 202(2), pages 528-537, April.
    8. Michael Greenacre, 1988. "Clustering the rows and columns of a contingency table," Journal of Classification, Springer;The Classification Society, vol. 5(1), pages 39-51, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sanchez-Barrios, Luis Javier & Andreeva, Galina & Ansell, Jake, 2016. "“Time-to-profit scorecards for revolving credit”," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(2), pages 397-406.

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