A new approach to modelling and forecasting monthly guest nights in hotels
Starting from a day-to-day model on hotel specific guest nights we obtain an integer-valued moving average model by cross-sectional and temporal aggregation. The two parameters of the aggregate model reflect the daily mean check-in and the daily check-out probability. Letting the parameters be functions of dummy and economic variables we demonstrate the potential of the approach in terms of interesting interpretations. Empirical results are presented for a series of Norwegian guests in Swedish hotels. The results indicate strong seasonal patterns in both mean check-in and in the check-out probability. Models based on differenced series are preferred in terms of goodness-of-fit. In a forecast comparison the improvements due to economic variables is minute.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Melenberg, B. & van Soest, A.H.O., 1991.
"Parametric and semi-parametric modelling of vacation expenditures,"
1991-44, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Melenberg, Bertrand & van Soest, Arthur, 1996. "Parametric and Semi-parametric Modelling of Vacation Expenditures," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 59-76, Jan.-Feb..
- Melenberg, B. & Van Soest, A., 1991. "Parametric and Semi-parametric Modelling of Vocation Expenditures," Papers 9144, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
- Melenberg, B. & van Soest, A.H.O., 1996. "Parametric and semi-parametric modelling of vacation expenditures," Other publications TiSEM 14de3e83-71c1-4e9a-aa5e-3, School of Economics and Management.
- repec:ner:tilbur:urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-72214 is not listed on IDEAS
- Kurt Brannas & Jorgen Hellstrom, 2001.
"Generalized Integer-Valued Autoregression,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 425-443.
- Garcia-Ferrer, Antonio & Queralt, Ricardo A., 1997. "A note on forecasting international tourism demand in Spain," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 539-549, December.
- Kulendran, N. & King, Maxwell L., 1997. "Forecasting international quarterly tourist flows using error-correction and time-series models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 319-327, September.
- Gonzalez, Pilar & Moral, Paz, 1995. "An analysis of the international tourism demand in Spain," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 233-251, June.
- Adamowicz, Wiktor L., 1994. "Habit Formation And Variety Seeking In A Discrete Choice Model Of Recreation Demand," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 19(01), July.
- Witt, Stephen F. & Witt, Christine A., 1995. "Forecasting tourism demand: A review of empirical research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 447-475, September.
- Martin, Christine A. & Witt, Stephen F., 1989. "Forecasting tourism demand: A comparison of the accuracy of several quantitative methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 7-19.
- Richard Blundell & Rachel Griffith & Frank Windmeijer, 1999.
"Individual effects and dynamics in count data models,"
IFS Working Papers
W99/03, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Blundell, Richard & Griffith, Rachel & Windmeijer, Frank, 2002. "Individual effects and dynamics in count data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 113-131, May.
- Brewer, K. R. W., 1973. "Some consequences of temporal aggregation and systematic sampling for ARMA and ARMAX models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 133-154, June.
- Young, Peter & Pedregal, Diego, 1997. "Comments on "An analysis of the international tourism demand in Spain" by P. Gonzalez and P. Moral," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 551-556, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:18:y:2002:i:1:p:19-30. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.