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A new approach to modelling and forecasting monthly guest nights in hotels

  • Brannas, Kurt
  • Hellstrom, Jorgen
  • Nordstrom, Jonas

Starting from a day-to-day model on hotel specific guest nights we obtain an integer-valued moving average model by cross-sectional and temporal aggregation. The two parameters of the aggregate model reflect the daily mean check-in and the daily check-out probability. Letting the parameters be functions of dummy and economic variables we demonstrate the potential of the approach in terms of interesting interpretations. Empirical results are presented for a series of Norwegian guests in Swedish hotels. The results indicate strong seasonal patterns in both mean check-in and in the check-out probability. Models based on differenced series are preferred in terms of goodness-of-fit. In a forecast comparison the improvements due to economic variables is minute.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 18 (2002)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 19-30

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Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:18:y:2002:i:1:p:19-30
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast

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  7. Young, Peter & Pedregal, Diego, 1997. "Comments on "An analysis of the international tourism demand in Spain" by P. Gonzalez and P. Moral," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 551-556, December.
  8. Martin, Christine A. & Witt, Stephen F., 1989. "Forecasting tourism demand: A comparison of the accuracy of several quantitative methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 7-19.
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