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Satisfaction as a predictor of future performance: A replication

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  • van Doorn, Jenny
  • Leeflang, Peter S.H.
  • Tijs, Marleen

Abstract

Since the introduction of the Net Promoter concept there has been a vivid and ongoing debate among academics and practitioners about the performance of the Net Promoter Score (NPS) in comparison to other customer metrics, such as customer satisfaction, to predict company growth rates. We report results from a study using data from customers and firms in the Netherlands on the relationship between different satisfaction and loyalty metrics as well as the NPS with sales revenue growth, gross margins and net operating cash flows. We find that all metrics perform equally well in predicting current gross margins and current sales revenue growth and equally poor for predicting future sales growth and gross margins as well as current and future net cash flows. The NPS is neither superior nor inferior to other metrics. Taken together, our study suggests that the predictive capability of customer metrics, such as NPS, for future company growth rates is limited.

Suggested Citation

  • van Doorn, Jenny & Leeflang, Peter S.H. & Tijs, Marleen, 2013. "Satisfaction as a predictor of future performance: A replication," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 314-318.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ijrema:v:30:y:2013:i:3:p:314-318
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijresmar.2013.04.002
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    1. Neil A. Morgan & Lopo Leotte Rego, 2006. "The Value of Different Customer Satisfaction and Loyalty Metrics in Predicting Business Performance," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 25(5), pages 426-439, September.
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    1. Nyarku Kwamena Minta & Oduro Stephen, 2017. "Importance-Performance Matrix Analysis (IPMA) of Service Quality and Customer Satisfaction in the Ghanaian Banking Industry," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 7(7), pages 532-550, July.
    2. Agag, Gomaa & Ali Durrani, Baseer & Hassan Abdelmoety, Ziad & Mostafa Daher, Maya & Eid, Riyad, 2024. "Understanding the link between net promoter score and e-WOM behaviour on social media: The role of national culture," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    3. Agag, Gomaa & Durrani, Baseer Ali & Shehawy, Yasser Moustafa & Alharthi, Majed & Alamoudi, Hawazen & El-Halaby, Sherif & Hassanein, Ahmed & Abdelmoety, Ziad H., 2023. "Understanding the link between customer feedback metrics and firm performance," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    4. Sven Baehre & Michele O’Dwyer & Lisa O’Malley & Nick Lee, 2022. "The use of Net Promoter Score (NPS) to predict sales growth: insights from an empirical investigation," Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 67-84, January.
    5. Lynch, John G. & Bradlow, Eric T. & Huber, Joel C. & Lehmann, Donald R., 2015. "Reflections on the replication corner: In praise of conceptual replications," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 333-342.
    6. Mirjam Visser & Ab Stevels & Jan Schoormans, 2021. "Comparing the Recommendations of Buyers of Energy-Efficient and Inefficient Vacuum Cleaners," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-14, November.
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    8. Malek Simon Grimm & Ralf Wagner, 2024. "Challenging the linearity assumption of intra-brand image confusion," Journal of Marketing Analytics, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 12(2), pages 355-374, June.
    9. Takumi Kato & Nobu Takenaka & Rie Ito & Kazuki Nishiguchi, 2025. "Selection is superior to scale: determining brand loyalty highly correlated to market share," Journal of Marketing Analytics, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 13(1), pages 17-28, March.
    10. Takumi Kato & Nobu Takenaka & Rie Ito & Kazuki Nishiguchi, 2023. "Selection versus scale: Loyalty indices for brand management," Journal of Marketing Analytics, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(4), pages 836-853, December.
    11. Baehre, Sven & O'Dwyer, Michele & O'Malley, Lisa & Story, Vicky M, 2022. "Customer mindset metrics: A systematic evaluation of the net promoter score (NPS) vs. alternative calculation methods," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 353-362.
    12. Aguinis, Herman & Burgi-Tian, Jing, 2021. "Measuring performance during crises and beyond: The Performance Promoter Score," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 149-160.
    13. Zihayat, Morteza & Ayanso, Anteneh & Davoudi, Heidar & Kargar, Mehdi & Mengesha, Nigussie, 2021. "Leveraging non-respondent data in customer satisfaction modeling," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 112-126.
    14. Ghanbarpour, Tohid & Gustafsson, Anders, 2022. "How do corporate social responsibility (CSR) and innovativeness increase financial gains? A customer perspective analysis," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 471-481.
    15. Mecredy, Philip & Wright, Malcolm J. & Feetham, Pamela, 2018. "Are promoters valuable customers? An application of the net promoter scale to predict future customer spend," Australasian marketing journal, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 3-9.
    16. Raassens, N. & Haans, Hans, 2017. "NPS and online WOM investigating the relationship between customers’ promoter scores and eWOM behavior," Other publications TiSEM 931e7761-7c6e-40ee-8976-2, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    17. de Haan, Evert & Verhoef, Peter C. & Wiesel, Thorsten, 2015. "The predictive ability of different customer feedback metrics for retention," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 195-206.

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