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Health workforce planning should be strategy or policy-driven: From linear forecasts to normative futures

Author

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  • Rees, Gareth H
  • Willis, Graham
  • Scotter, Cris

Abstract

Health workforce planning (HWP) remains persistently ineffective, a weakness that was starkly exposed during the pandemic and amplified in today’s ongoing health permacrisis. Despite the development of increasingly sophisticated workforce models and planning techniques, outcomes continue to fall short. We argue that a central reason lies in how the HWP problem is framed: the dominant reliance on linear, forward-looking forecasting methods constrains both the scope of planning and the relevance of its outputs.

Suggested Citation

  • Rees, Gareth H & Willis, Graham & Scotter, Cris, 2025. "Health workforce planning should be strategy or policy-driven: From linear forecasts to normative futures," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:hepoli:v:161:y:2025:i:c:s0168851025001952
    DOI: 10.1016/j.healthpol.2025.105440
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gareth H Rees & Rosemary James & Levan Samadashvili & Cris Scotter, 2023. "Are Sustainable Health Workforces Possible? Issues and a Possible Remedy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-14, February.
    2. Kishita, Yusuke & McLellan, Benjamin C. & Giurco, Damien & Aoki, Kazumasu & Yoshizawa, Go & Handoh, Itsuki C., 2017. "Designing backcasting scenarios for resilient energy futures," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 114-125.
    3. Sutton, Claire & Prowse, Julie & McVey, Lynn & Elshehaly, Mai & Neagu, Daniel & Montague, Jane & Alvarado, Natasha & Tissiman, Chris & O'Connell, Kate & Eyers, Emma & Faisal, Muhammad & Randell, Rebec, 2023. "Strategic workforce planning in health and social care – an international perspective: A scoping review," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    4. Willis, Graham & Cave, Siôn & Kunc, Martin, 2018. "Strategic workforce planning in healthcare: A multi-methodology approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 267(1), pages 250-263.
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