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Investigating intended evacuation from wildfires in the wildland-urban interface: Application of a bivariate probit model


  • Mozumder, Pallab
  • Raheem, Nejem
  • Talberth, John
  • Berrens, Robert P.


With evidence of increasing wildfire risks in wildland-urban interface zones in the U.S. West and elsewhere, understanding intended evacuation behavior is a growing issue for community planners. This research investigates intended evacuation behavior due to wildfire risks, using mail survey data collected from over 1000 households in the East Mountain area outside Albuquerque, New Mexico (USA). Respondents were asked whether they would evacuate under both voluntary and mandatory evacuation orders. Bivariate probit probability models are used to jointly investigate the subjective belief structure of whether or not the respondent is concerned about wildfire risk, and the intended probability of evacuating as a function of risk perception, and a variety of socioeconomic and demographic variables (e.g. gender, political affiliation, length of residence, owning animals and amenity ratings).

Suggested Citation

  • Mozumder, Pallab & Raheem, Nejem & Talberth, John & Berrens, Robert P., 2008. "Investigating intended evacuation from wildfires in the wildland-urban interface: Application of a bivariate probit model," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(6), pages 415-423, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:forpol:v:10:y:2008:i:6:p:415-423

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Geoffrey H. Donovan & Patricia A. Champ & David T. Butry, 2007. "Wildfire Risk and Housing Prices: A Case Study from Colorado Springs," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 83(2), pages 217-233.
    2. Kaval, Pamela & Loomis, John & Seidl, Andy, 2007. "Willingness-to-pay for prescribed fire in the Colorado (USA) wildland urban interface," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(8), pages 928-937, May.
    3. John Talberth & Robert P. Berrens & Michael Mckee & Michael Jones, 2006. "Averting And Insurance Decisions In The Wildland-Urban Interface: Implications Of Survey And Experimental Data For Wildfire Risk Reduction Policy," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 24(2), pages 203-223, April.
    4. John C. Whitehead & Bob Edwards & Marieke Van Willigen & John R. Maiolo & Kenneth Wilson & Kevin T. Smith, 2000. "“Heading for Higher Ground: Factors Affecting Real and Hypothetical Hurricane Evacuation Behavior,”," Working Papers 0006, East Carolina University, Department of Economics.
    5. John Loomis & Armando Gonzalez-Caban & Hayley Hesseln, 2004. "Multicultural Evaluation of the Performance of Contingent Valuation for Forest Fire Prevention," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 22(3), pages 407-419, July.
    6. William H. Greene, 1998. "Gender Economics Courses in Liberal Arts Colleges: Further Results," The Journal of Economic Education, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 291-300, January.
    7. Thomas J Cova & Justin P Johnson, 2002. "Microsimulation of neighborhood evacuations in the urban - wildland interface," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 34(12), pages 2211-2229, December.
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