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The future of wooden multistory construction in the forest bioeconomy – A Delphi study from Finland and Sweden

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  • Toppinen, Anne
  • Röhr, Axel
  • Pätäri, Satu
  • Lähtinen, Katja
  • Toivonen, Ritva

Abstract

The rise of wooden multistory construction (WMC) in the Nordic countries has turned out to be the most evident construction-related new business opportunity in the emerging bioeconomy. Based on earlier literature, the future growth prospects for the rise of WMC are rooted in the concerns regarding environmental issues, as witnessed in a plethora of studies focusing on carbon footprinting. But do new (performance-based) regulations ‘favor’ WMC or do they give a more ‘just’ comparison of alternative building concepts? Therefore, more information is needed on the role of growing environmental awareness and preferences for wood as a renewable and recyclable material in the markets. Our paper presents results from a two-round Delphi study focusing on the relative strength and perceived interplay between likelihood and the desirability of environmental concerns in driving WMC in Finland and Sweden. Using qualitative analysis of expert interviews in the first Delphi round, the issues related to sustainable development appear to have growing importance in the marketplace. However, the panelists perceive that the emphasis on sustainability is mainly driven by the changing regulation reflecting societal needs, and only few experts saw it as echoing directly from changing individual consumer needs. In the second Delphi round, implemented with an online survey, the likelihood and desirability of sustainability as a megatrend in housing was perceived to gain further impetus toward 2030, both in the form of consumer demand for sustainable living and wood construction as a modern way of living. However, future research is needed to get a better understanding on the strength and scope of these drivers.

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  • Toppinen, Anne & Röhr, Axel & Pätäri, Satu & Lähtinen, Katja & Toivonen, Ritva, 2018. "The future of wooden multistory construction in the forest bioeconomy – A Delphi study from Finland and Sweden," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 3-10.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:foreco:v:31:y:2018:i:c:p:3-10
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfe.2017.05.001
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    8. Heiskanen, Aleksi & Hurmekoski, Elias & Toppinen, Anne & Näyhä, Annukka, 2022. "Exploring the unknowns – State of the art in qualitative forest-based sector foresight research," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    9. Roni Rinne & Hüseyin Emre Ilgın & Markku Karjalainen, 2022. "Comparative Study on Life-Cycle Assessment and Carbon Footprint of Hybrid, Concrete and Timber Apartment Buildings in Finland," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(2), pages 1-24, January.
    10. Martyna Maniak-Huesser & Lars G. F. Tellnes & Edwin Zea Escamilla, 2021. "Mind the Gap: A Policy Gap Analysis of Programmes Promoting Timber Construction in Nordic Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-14, October.
    11. Toivonen, Ritva & Lilja, Anna & Vihemäki, Heini & Toppinen, Anne, 2021. "Future export markets of industrial wood construction – A qualitative backcasting study," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    12. Mahmoud Sodangi & Zaheer Abbas Kazmi, 2020. "Integrated Evaluation of the Impediments to the Adoption of Coconut Palm Wood as a Sustainable Material for Building Construction," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-24, September.
    13. Toivonen, Ritva & Vihemäki, Heini & Toppinen, Anne, 2021. "Policy narratives on wooden multi-storey construction and implications for technology innovation system governance," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    14. Markku Karjalainen & Hüseyin Emre Ilgın & Lauri Metsäranta & Markku Norvasuo, 2021. "Suburban Residents’ Preferences for Livable Residential Area in Finland," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-18, October.
    15. Janni Kunttu & Venla Wallius & Martti Kulvik & Pekka Leskinen & Jussi Lintunen & Timokleia Orfanidou & Diana Tuomasjukka, 2022. "Exploring 2040: Global Trends and International Policies Setting Frames for the Finnish Wood-Based Economy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-20, August.
    16. Korhonen, J. & Koskivaara, A. & Toppinen, A., 2020. "Riding a Trojan horse? Future pathways of the fiber-based packaging industry in the bioeconomy," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    17. Purkus, Alexandra & Lüdtke, Jan, 2020. "A systemic evaluation framework for a multi-actor, forest-based bioeconomy governance process: The German Charter for Wood 2.0 as a case study," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    18. Markku Karjalainen & Hüseyin Emre Ilgın, 2021. "The Change over Time in Finnish Residents’ Attitudes towards Multi-Story Timber Apartment Buildings," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-14, May.
    19. Lazarevic, David & Kautto, Petrus & Antikainen, Riina, 2020. "Finland's wood-frame multi-storey construction innovation system: Analysing motors of creative destruction," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).

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