IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v90y2026ics1544612325026455.html

Electricity shortages, price asymmetries, and behavioural responses in the Indian energy market

Author

Listed:
  • Biswas, Pratik
  • Sharma, Chandan
  • Padhan, Hemachandra

Abstract

This research examines how electricity shortages and crude oil prices shape electricity prices in Indian spot market. We utilize a Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag model along with Local Projection approach to track how these effects play out in the short and long run. The empirical findings reveal that electricity prices react more strongly to negative shocks, such as supply shortages and rises in oil price, than to positive ones. Moreover, the underlying reasons for these asymmetries are explained through behavioural factors, such as price inelasticity, consumer anxiety and aggressive bidding of scarcity. Furthermore, this study highlights feedback loops in which nonlinearly increasing prices lead to electricity shortages. Finally, these findings underline the need for targeted policies to enhance market resilience and pricing stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Biswas, Pratik & Sharma, Chandan & Padhan, Hemachandra, 2026. "Electricity shortages, price asymmetries, and behavioural responses in the Indian energy market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:90:y:2026:i:c:s1544612325026455
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2025.109396
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612325026455
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2025.109396?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. D. Tripati Rao & Saurabh Goyal, 2018. "Global Commodity and Oil Price Movements, Macroeconomic Performance and Challenges for an Emerging Economy: The Indian Experience," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 19(3), pages 650-674, June.
    2. Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Hossain, Sahib & Abdullah, Mohammad & Goodell, John W., 2024. "Global uncertainty factors and price connectedness between US electricity and blockchain markets: Findings from an R-square connectedness approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    3. Schneider, Ian & Sunstein, Cass R., 2017. "Behavioral considerations for effective time-varying electricity prices," Behavioural Public Policy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(2), pages 219-251, November.
    4. Mohammadi, Hassan, 2009. "Electricity prices and fuel costs: Long-run relations and short-run dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 503-509, May.
    5. Jacopo Torriti, 2017. "The Risk of Residential Peak Electricity Demand: A Comparison of Five European Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-14, March.
    6. Wei, Yu & Zhang, Jiahao & Bai, Lan & Wang, Yizhi, 2023. "Connectedness among El Niño-Southern Oscillation, carbon emission allowance, crude oil and renewable energy stock markets: Time- and frequency-domain evidence based on TVP-VAR model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 289-309.
    7. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-248, April.
    8. Severin Borenstein, 2002. "The Trouble With Electricity Markets: Understanding California's Restructuring Disaster," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(1), pages 191-211, Winter.
    9. Chang, Lei & Mohsin, Muhammad & Gao, Zhennan & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad, 2023. "Asymmetric impact of oil price on current account balance: Evidence from oil importing countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    10. Ali Hortaçsu & Steven L. Puller, 2008. "Understanding strategic bidding in multi‐unit auctions: a case study of the Texas electricity spot market," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 39(1), pages 86-114, March.
    11. Vincent Mak & Amnon Rapoport & Eyran J. Gisches & Jiaojie Han, 2014. "Purchasing Scarce Products Under Dynamic Pricing: An Experimental Investigation," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 16(3), pages 425-438, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Renato Agurto & Fernando Fuentes & Carlos J. García & Esteban Skoknic, 2021. "The macroeconomic impact of the electricity price: lessons from Chile," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(5), pages 2407-2428, May.
    2. van Eijkel, Remco & Kuper, Gerard H. & Moraga-González, José L., 2016. "Do firms sell forward for strategic reasons? An application to the wholesale market for natural gas," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 1-35.
    3. Sirin, Selahattin Murat & Erten, Ibrahim, 2022. "Price spikes, temporary price caps, and welfare effects of regulatory interventions on wholesale electricity markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    4. Chu, Yin & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2020. "Vertical separation of transmission control and market efficiency in the wholesale electricity market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    5. Steve Cicala, 2022. "Imperfect Markets versus Imperfect Regulation in US Electricity Generation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(2), pages 409-441, February.
    6. repec:aen:journl:ej38-si1-acemoglu is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Shi, Chunpei & Wei, Yu & Li, Xiafei & Liu, Yuntong, 2023. "Combination forecasts of China's oil futures returns based on multiple uncertainties and their connectedness with oil," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    8. Dias, José G. & Ramos, Sofia B., 2014. "Energy price dynamics in the U.S. market. Insights from a heterogeneous multi-regime framework," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 327-336.
    9. Natalia Fabra & Gerard Llobet, 2023. "Auctions with Privately Known Capacities: Understanding Competition Among Renewables," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 133(651), pages 1106-1146.
    10. Ayse Tugba Atasoy & Marjolein Harmsen-van Hout & Reinhard Madlener, 2018. "Strategic Demand Response to Dynamic Pricing: A Lab Experiment for the Electricity Market," FCN Working Papers 5/2018, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    11. Zhang, Chuanguo & Chen, Xiaoqing, 2014. "The impact of global oil price shocks on China’s bulk commodity markets and fundamental industries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 32-41.
    12. De Blauwe, Jilles & Zhang, Xiaobing & Keles, Dogan, 2025. "Investigating empirical bidding curves in the electricity spot market: Expected patterns vs anomalies?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    13. Renato Agurto & Fernando Fuentes & Carlos Garcia & Esteban Skoknic, 2013. "Power Generation and the Business Cycle: The Impact of Delaying Investment," ILADES-UAH Working Papers inv290, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business.
    14. Qiao, Sen & Guo, Zi Xin & Tao, Zhang & Ren, Zheng Yu, 2023. "Analyzing the network structure of risk transmission among renewable, non-renewable energy and carbon markets," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 206-217.
    15. Joseph H. Davis & Christopher Hanes & Paul W. Rhode, 2009. "Harvests and Business Cycles in Nineteenth-Century America," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(4), pages 1675-1727.
    16. Antonella Cavallo & Antonio Ribba, 2017. "Measuring the Effects of Oil Price and Euro-area Shocks on CEECs Business Cycles," Department of Economics 0111, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    17. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Ning, Shao-Lin, 2017. "Dynamic relationship of oil price shocks and country risks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 571-581.
    18. Ray C. Fair, 1986. "Sources of Output and Price Variability in a Macroeconometric Model," NBER Working Papers 2112, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Tin Cheuk Leung & Kwok Ping Ping & Kevin K. Tsui, 2019. "What can deregulators deregulate? The case of electricity," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 1-32, August.
    20. Wang, Fanyi & Ma, Wanying & Mirza, Nawazish & Altuntaş, Mehmet, 2023. "Green financing, financial uncertainty, geopolitical risk, and oil prices volatility," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    21. Huang, Shupei & An, Haizhong & Gao, Xiangyun & Sun, Xiaoqi, 2017. "Do oil price asymmetric effects on the stock market persist in multiple time horizons?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(P2), pages 1799-1808.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:90:y:2026:i:c:s1544612325026455. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.