IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v77y2025ics1544612325003484.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Prediction of market value of firms with corporate sustainability performance data using machine learning models

Author

Listed:
  • Doğan, Murat
  • Sayılır, Özlem
  • Komath, Muhammed Aslam Chelery
  • Çimen, Emre

Abstract

This study attempts to build models for prediction of market value of firms with Corporate Sustainability Performance data using machine learning models. We analyze a comprehensive global dataset of 5,450 firms operating in 10 sectors. Machine learning models of Random Forest, XGBoost, SVM, and Nearest Neighbor models were constructed with E,S,G,C scores (Environmental, Social, Governance, and ESG Controversies) and financial ratios obtained from the Refinitiv (LSEG) Database. The most suitable model (Random Forest Model) built for Market Capitalization prediction shows that Environmental (E) and ESG Controversies (C) scores stand out as important predictors of market value. The findings of the study emphasize the importance of integrating ESGC factors into market value prediction models. Moreover, our findings suggest that the importance of corporate sustainability performance factors (E, S, G, C) is more pronounced in Europe and America compared to other regions. This study may provide insights for companies, investors, and analysts to achieve a more sophisticated assessment of market value.

Suggested Citation

  • Doğan, Murat & Sayılır, Özlem & Komath, Muhammed Aslam Chelery & Çimen, Emre, 2025. "Prediction of market value of firms with corporate sustainability performance data using machine learning models," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:77:y:2025:i:c:s1544612325003484
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2025.107085
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612325003484
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2025.107085?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wei Bao & Jun Yue & Yulei Rao, 2017. "A deep learning framework for financial time series using stacked autoencoders and long-short term memory," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(7), pages 1-24, July.
    2. Ahmed A. Elamer & Mounia Boulhaga, 2024. "ESG controversies and corporate performance: The moderating effect of governance mechanisms and ESG practices," Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(4), pages 3312-3327, July.
    3. Mark Anthony Camilleri, 2015. "Environmental, social and governance disclosures in Europe," Sustainability Accounting, Management and Policy Journal, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 6(2), pages 224-242, May.
    4. Lars Hassel & Henrik Nilsson & Siv Nyquist, 2005. "The value relevance of environmental performance," European Accounting Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 41-61.
    5. Martin Kyere & Marcel Ausloos, 2021. "Corporate governance and firms financial performance in the United Kingdom," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 1871-1885, April.
    6. Anna Melinda & Ratna Wardhani, 2020. "The Effect of Environmental, Social, Governance, and Controversies on Firms’ Value: Evidence from Asia," International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics, in: Advanced Issues in the Economics of Emerging Markets, volume 27, pages 147-173, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    7. Mark Anthony Camilleri, 2015. "Environmental, social and governance disclosures in Europe," Sustainability Accounting, Management and Policy Journal, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 6(2), pages 224-242, May.
    8. Nisar Ahmad & Asma Mobarek & Naheed Nawazesh Roni, 2021. "Revisiting the impact of ESG on financial performance of FTSE350 UK firms: Static and dynamic panel data analysis," Cogent Business & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 1900500-190, January.
    9. Maretno Harjoto & Indrarini Laksmana, 2018. "The Impact of Corporate Social Responsibility on Risk Taking and Firm Value," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 151(2), pages 353-373, August.
    10. Guangyou Zhou & Lian Liu & Sumei Luo, 2022. "Sustainable development, ESG performance and company market value: Mediating effect of financial performance," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(7), pages 3371-3387, November.
    11. Le Ha Nhu Thao & Jolán Velencei, 2018. "Literature review: the impact of corporate social responsibilty on firm performance," Proceedings- 11th International Conference on Mangement, Enterprise and Benchmarking (MEB 2018),, Óbuda University, Keleti Faculty of Business and Management.
    12. Prayag Lal Yadav & Seung Hun Han & Jae Jeung Rho, 2016. "Impact of Environmental Performance on Firm Value for Sustainable Investment: Evidence from Large US Firms," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(6), pages 402-420, September.
    13. Dogru, Tarik & Akyildirim, Erdinc & Cepni, Oguzhan & Ozdemir, Ozgur & Sharma, Abhinav & Yilmaz, Muhammed Hasan, 2022. "The effect of environmental, social and governance risks," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    14. Amal Aouadi & Sylvain Marsat, 2018. "Do ESG Controversies Matter for Firm Value? Evidence from International Data," Post-Print halshs-02007374, HAL.
    15. Daniel Ogachi & Zeman Zoltan, 2020. "Corporate Social Responsibility and Firm Value Protection," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-22, November.
    16. Shihao Gu & Bryan Kelly & Dacheng Xiu, 2020. "Empirical Asset Pricing via Machine Learning," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(5), pages 2223-2273.
    17. Anna Melinda & Ratna Wardhani & William A. Barnett & Bruno S. Sergi, 2020. "The Effect of Environmental, Social, Governance, and Controversies on Firms’ Value: Evidence from Asia," International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics, in: Advanced Issues in the Economics of Emerging Markets, volume 27, pages 147-173, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    18. Mario González & María del Mar Alonso-Almeida & David Dominguez, 2018. "Mapping global sustainability report scoring: a detailed analysis of Europe and Asia," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 1041-1055, May.
    19. Fatemi, Ali & Glaum, Martin & Kaiser, Stefanie, 2018. "ESG performance and firm value: The moderating role of disclosure," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 45-64.
    20. Eduardo Duque-Grisales & Javier Aguilera-Caracuel, 2021. "Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) Scores and Financial Performance of Multilatinas: Moderating Effects of Geographic International Diversification and Financial Slack," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 168(2), pages 315-334, January.
    21. Amrou Awaysheh & Randall A. Heron & Tod Perry & Jared I. Wilson, 2020. "On the relation between corporate social responsibility and financial performance," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(6), pages 965-987, June.
    22. Christophe Revelli & Jean-Laurent Viviani, 2015. "Financial performance of socially responsible investing (SRI): what have we learned? A meta-analysis," Post-Print halshs-01141295, HAL.
    23. Giovanni Landi & Mauro Sciarelli, 2018. "Towards a more ethical market: the impact of ESG rating on corporate financial performance," Social Responsibility Journal, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 15(1), pages 11-27, October.
    24. Khanifah Khanifah & Udin Udin & Nor Hadi & Fitri Alfiana, 2020. "Environmental Performance and Firm Value: Testing the Role of Firm Reputation in Emerging Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(1), pages 96-103.
    25. Tahani Tahmid & Muhammad Nazmul Hoque & Jamaliah Said & Paolo Saona & Md. Abul Kalam Azad, 2022. "Does ESG initiatives yield greater firm value and performance? New evidence from European firms," Cogent Business & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 2144098-214, December.
    26. Zhongju Liao & Yan Liu, 2021. "What drives environmental innovation? A meta‐analysis," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 1852-1864, May.
    27. Shihao Gu & Bryan Kelly & Dacheng Xiu, 2020. "Empirical Asset Pricing via Machine Learning," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 33(5), pages 2223-2273.
    28. Xiang Deng & Xiang Cheng, 2019. "Can ESG Indices Improve the Enterprises’ Stock Market Performance?—An Empirical Study from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(17), pages 1-13, September.
    29. Ahmed Aboud & Ahmed Diab, 2018. "The impact of social, environmental and corporate governance disclosures on firm value," Journal of Accounting in Emerging Economies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 8(4), pages 442-458, November.
    30. Amal Aouadi & Sylvain Marsat, 2018. "Do ESG Controversies Matter for Firm Value? Evidence from International Data," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 151(4), pages 1027-1047, September.
    31. Caterina De Lucia & Pasquale Pazienza & Mark Bartlett, 2020. "Does Good ESG Lead to Better Financial Performances by Firms? Machine Learning and Logistic Regression Models of Public Enterprises in Europe," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-29, July.
    32. Luigi Aldieri & Alessandra Amendola & Vincenzo Candila, 2023. "The Impact of ESG Scores on Risk Market Performance," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-16, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Takafumi Ikuta & Hidemichi Fujii, 2025. "An Analysis of the Relationship Between ESG Activities and the Financial Performance of Japanese Companies Toward Sustainable Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(15), pages 1-23, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wei Jiang & Xin Wang & Liping Liang & Mingming Leng & Xin Fang, 2025. "ESG Ratings as a Strategic Imperative: Unraveling Their Influence on Corporate Financial Performance in China," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 16(2), pages 9313-9337, June.
    2. Komath, Muhammed Aslam Chelery & Doğan, Murat & Sayılır, Özlem, 2023. "Impact of corporate governance and related controversies on the market value of banks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    3. Adam Arian & John Sands & Stuart Tooley, 2023. "Industry and Stakeholder Impacts on Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) and Financial Performance: Consumer vs. Industrial Sectors," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-21, August.
    4. Sakhr Bani-Khaled & Graça Azevedo & Jonas Oliveira, 2025. "Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors and firm value: A systematic literature review of theories and empirical evidence," AMS Review, Springer;Academy of Marketing Science, vol. 15(1), pages 228-260, June.
    5. Paola Brighi & Antonio Carlo Francesco Della Bina & Valeria Venturelli, 2022. "Do ESG Investments Mitigate ESG Controversies? Evidence From International Data," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 0084, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    6. Lei Ruan & Heng Liu, 2021. "Environmental, Social, Governance Activities and Firm Performance: Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-16, January.
    7. Narula, Radhika & Rao, Purnima & Kumar, Satish & Matta, Rahul, 2024. "ESG scores and firm performance- evidence from emerging market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 1170-1184.
    8. Rachana Manoj Lunawat & Mahmoud Elmarzouky & Doaa Shohaieb, 2025. "Integrating Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Factors into the Investment Returns of American Companies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(19), pages 1-20, September.
    9. Sonia Boukattaya & Zyed Achour & Zeineb Hlioui, 2021. "Corporate Social Responsibility and Corporate Financial Performance: An Empirical Literature Review," Post-Print hal-03472433, HAL.
    10. Marie, Mohamed & Qi, Baolei & Elgammal, Mohammed & Elnahass, Marwa, 2024. "A more sustainable future: Can politically connected CEOs spur the nexus between ESG performance and firm financial performance?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    11. Shakil, Mohammad Hassan, 2021. "Environmental, social and governance performance and financial risk: Moderating role of ESG controversies and board gender diversity," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    12. Khan, Muhammad Arif, 2022. "ESG disclosure and Firm performance: A bibliometric and meta analysis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    13. Radu-Alexandru Șerban & Diana Marieta Mihaiu & Mihai Țichindelean, 2022. "Environment, Social, and Governance Score and Value Added Impacts on Market Capitalization: A Sectoral-Based Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-25, February.
    14. Xiaoling Yu & Kaitian Xiao, 2022. "Does ESG Performance Affect Firm Value? Evidence from a New ESG-Scoring Approach for Chinese Enterprises," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-40, December.
    15. Ge Ge & Xiang Xiao & Zhenzhu Li & Qinghui Dai, 2022. "Does ESG Performance Promote High-Quality Development of Enterprises in China? The Mediating Role of Innovation Input," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-24, March.
    16. Rodrigo Zeidan, 2022. "Why don't asset managers accelerate ESG investing? A sentiment analysis based on 13,000 messages from finance professionals," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(7), pages 3028-3039, November.
    17. Alan Kai Ming Au & Yi-Fan Yang & Huan Wang & Rui-Hong Chen & Leven J. Zheng, 2023. "Mapping the Landscape of ESG Strategies: A Bibliometric Review and Recommendations for Future Research," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-26, December.
    18. Hung Manh Pham & Nham Linh Vuong & Dung Viet Tran & Minh Thi Hai Ngo & Trung Tien Le, 2025. "Does environmental, social, and governance disclosure affect financial performance? An empirical study of Southeast and East Asia commercial banks," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 1-26, March.
    19. Postiglione, Massimo & Carini, Cristian & Falini, Alberto, 2025. "Assessing Firm ESG Performance Through Corporate Survival: The Moderating Role of Firm Size," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    20. Bolognesi, Enrica & Burchi, Alberto & Goodell, John W. & Paltrinieri, Andrea, 2025. "Stakeholders and regulatory pressure on ESG disclosure," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • M14 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - Corporate Culture; Diversity; Social Responsibility
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:77:y:2025:i:c:s1544612325003484. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.